Archive for Starting Pitchers

In this week’s edition of ADP Crowdsourcing, we are taking a look at two players who will be affected by Matt Garza being traded to the Cubs. Today we finish our week of voting with Jeremy Hellickson, and are using rounds as our unit once again.

Even before Garza was traded, I think most (including myself) were drafting Hellickson on the assumption that he’d have a spot in the rotation when the season began, because Hellickson was simply too good to keep in the minor leagues any longer. After the Garza trade, we can now be sure that Hellickson should enter 2011 in the Rays’ starting rotation, but we cannot be sure how many innings he will pitch.

Some may want to compare Hellickson’s debut with those of David Price and Wade Davis, but Helly isn’t a comparable pitcher. Hellickson already has two breaking balls that are of MLB caliber, and he does a good job keeping his pitches low in the zone. Tampa Bay’s defense isn’t going to hurt his cause, either, as they should continue to do an excellent job converting balls in play to outs.

It’s understandable that owners will have their reservations, as a rookie facing the stacked lineups of Boston and New York isn’t the best case scenario, but good pitchers do well in almost any capacity. The Rays are still going to compete this year, and while their bullpen could lose Hellickson a few wins, he should still be able to reach a double-digit win total this year. As long as he doesn’t succomb to James Shields‘ Homerunitis, he’ll be fine.

We are still voting on where you think Hellickson will be drafted by the average owner, but we’re going to take it a step further. We are also going to vote on where you would draft him, as well. Also, please note we are using round, not pick this time because of Garza’s likely ADP. Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.

In this week’s edition of ADP Crowdsourcing, we take a look at two players who will be affected by Matt Garza trade to the Cubs. Today we start with Garza himself, and are using rounds as our unit once again.

If you just watched Garza throw in a bullpen session, you may have reason to believe that he is a legitimate MLB and fantasy ace. However, you wouldn’t have much reason to believe that if you just looked at his numbers from the past three seasons in Tampa Bay. Garza is one of those starters who has good velocity on his fastball, and despite a fantastic slider, is unable to strike out as many batters as he probably should. Garza’s age-25 season in 2009 gave everyone plenty of hope, and his strikeout rate crept over the 8.0 per nine innings mark. But he returned to normal in 2010, striking out only 6.6 batter every nine innings.

Garza has become an extreme fly-ball pitcher over the past few years, and despite Tropicana Fields’ park factors, his home run rate is usually below average. Wrigley Field is not as forgiving, especially against left-handed hitters, so Garza could end up getting himself in a little bit of trouble this upcoming season. However, facing a pitcher or pinch-hitter instead of a DH and leaving the AL East should help mitigate his potential home run problems.

We are still voting on where you think Garza will be drafted by the average owner, but we’re going to take it a step further. We are also going to vote on where you would draft him, as well. Also, please note we are using round, not pick this time because of Garza’s likely ADP. Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.

Now that Matt Garza has been shipped to Chicago’s north side, we know for (almost) certain that Jeremy Hellickson will start the season in Tampa’s five-man rotation. The 23-year-old (24 in April) made four spot starts and six relief appearances for the big league team last year, pitching to a 3.88 FIP (3.47 ERA) with 8.17 K/9 and 1.49 uIBB/9 in 36.1 IP. He was a little homer prone, giving up five in those innings (1.24 HR/9), but that’s to be expected from a rookie in the AL East.

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* Anyone not named Billy Butler and Joakim Soria, obviously.

The Royals traded their two longest tenured players in separate deals this winter, first shipping David DeJesus to the Athletics before sending Zack Greinke to the Brewers in what probably qualifies as the winter’s biggest blockbuster. That has left the team’s roster pretty barren in terms of fantasy talent, at least outside of Butler and Soria. Let’s dig through the team’s 40-man roster and see if any of their notable pitchers are worth drafting in a standard 12-team league. We’ll cover the position players tomorrow.

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Dan Szymborski released his ZiPS projections for the Dodgers earlier this week, and they really like the Dodgers’ (somewhat) rebuilt rotation. Let’s take a look at the front four…

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The San Diego Padres have a homefield advantage unlike any other. Petco Park is an extreme pitcher’s park, suppressing offense to just 80.6% of a neutral environment over the last three seasons according to ESPN’s park factors. Add in the great weather and beautiful city, and you’ve got a great destination for free agent starters looking to rebuild their value. This offseason’s reclamation product is local boy Aaron Harang, once on of fantasy’s top starters.

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In today’s edition of ADP Crowdsourcing, we stay with the topical trend. We are using pick number instead of round again, so please vote accordingly.

We all knew that Cliff Lee was going to make a big splash in free agency, and that he would have a large and lasting effect on the teams involved. But, we all assumed those teams were the Yankees and Rangers, not the Phillies.

One of the good things about Cliff Lee returning to Philadelphia is that we already have a sample, albeit a relatively small one, in place. During his 80 innings (okay, you caught me, 79.2 innings) in the NL, Lee struck out over a batter an inning, and posted his best swinging-strike rate since his 52 inning year in 2003. His FIP was a tremendous 2.83, and we can all remember how dominant he was in the playoffs.

Lee is already 32-years old, and will turn 33 before the 2011 season ends. However, he does not rely on velocity, and his control appears to be the sharpest it’s ever been. The defense behind him will be more than adequate, especially in the infield, and getting to face pitchers once again will benefit his numbers. With all the free agency hype, will Lee’s value be overblown? Or could Lee actually be undervalued because of his lack of strikeouts? It’s your job to decide.

Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. This time around, we’re using pick number instead of round, as it works a little better for top players. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here. And while you’re at it, why not submit a fan projection for Lee by clicking here?

Everyone’s looking for the next big fantasy starter in the mid-to-late rounds of the draft, hoping it clicks for a young player finally given a chance or that a veteran takes an unexpected step forward. Three years ago I managed to grab Cliff Lee out of the free agent pool before everyone else, and two years ago I gambled on Josh Johnson in a mid-teen round. While I was enjoying JJ’s breakout season, someone else in my league was enjoying Jorge de la Rosa’s.

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The Marlins, like the Dodgers, wasted no time filling out their pitching staff this offseason. They agreed to a one-year deal worth $7MM with Javier Vazquez yesterday, trading a full no-trade clause for a discount on the sticker price. Javy moves to a friendlier run environment and gets a crack at rebuilding his value before going back out onto the market next season, but more importantly for him, he’s nice and close to his family in Puerto Rico. A physical is all that stands in the way of the deal being a physical, but it’s not a given.

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Today in ADP Crowdsourcing, I go all Harry Potter and talk about Wandy Rodriguez.

Most owners probably don’t realize just how good Wandy Rodriguez was last season after he started slow for the Astros. If you gave up on him during his doldrums last year, I can’t blame you, because I was among the many who did (and regretted it later).

Wandy had a really hard time in May and June, as he couldn’t strike batters out at a high rate and was starting to lose a grip on his walk rate. Sure, his whiff rate was down during those two months, but not astronomically so (puns!). He bounced back in the next two months, striking out over a batter an inning in July and August, with a K/BB rate just below 5.00. August was especially impressive, as he posted an ERA of 1.34 with a 1.86 FIP to boot.

Wandy has been very consistent over the past three seasons, delivering a FIP around 3.55, a strikeout rate around 8.5 per nine, and a swinging strike rate around the 9% mark. And he’s done it all while relying on two pitches. For someone who just came into the spotlight a few years ago, Wandy will already be 32 years of age when next season comes around, but he should still be able to deliver good numbers next season.

Because Wandy’s always seemed to fly under the radar anyway, are owners going to completely overlook him after his slow start last year? It’s your call, and I appreciate the input. Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring. Please note that because of the Thanksgiving holiday, ADP results will not be up until Monday.

To submit your vote, click here.