Joe Blanton: More Sinkers, More Success?
In today’s ultra-focused edition of NL Starting Pitchers, we take a look at Joe Blanton of the Philadelphia Phillies.
Archive for Starting Pitchers
Wade Davis Might Want To Ditch His New Approach
As the 2011 season got under way, Tampa Bay locked up Wade Davis with long-term deal that could potentially keep him in a Rays uniform through 2017 while putting a total of over $36 million in the right-hander’s pockets. So far, Davis has rewarded Tampa’s aggressive move to cost-control his arbitration years and potentially buy out a pair of free agent seasons. In 44 innings pitched, Davis sports a 3.07 ERA that places among the top 20 in the American League.
Davis was, health permitting, supposed to become a prominent piece of Tampa’s starting rotation. On the strength of what Baseball America called “a heavy 93-94 mph fastball with above-average sink” and a “plus” curveball, Davis punched out 8.3 batters per nine frames at the Triple-A level. BA ranked him between number 17 and 34 on its Top 100 prospects list from 2008-2010. Given his stature amongst scouts, Davis’ hot start to the 2011 season makes him appear to be a talented starter converting potential into major league production.
The problem is the current version of Wade Davis pitches nothing like that glowing scouting report. He’s fooling just about no one, while also lacking the fine control and ground ball tendencies to compensate.
Among qualified starters, Davis’ 5.1 swinging strike percentage places ahead of only Brad Penny, Ivan Nova, Kyle McClellan and Dustin Moseley. For reference, the big league average is around 8.5% While Davis’ 6.7% swinging strike rate from 2009-2010 was rather disappointing for a guy touted as a power pitcher, that looks robust compared to this year’s clip. Davis has struck out 10.6% of batters faced this year, down from 17.1% from ’09 to ’10. That explains why his K/9 mark is just 4.09. He K’d around 6.6 per nine from ’09 to 10 (7-7.1 MLB average in recent years).
Davis’ average fastball velocity is down from 92.3 MPH last season to 90 in 2011. While over 40% of Davis’ pitches classified by Pitch F/X as four-seamers were thrown at 93 MPH or higher in 2010, about four percent have reached that velocity this year. Davis suggested to Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times that the lack of mid-to-upper 90s gas is at least partially intentional:
Part by design, part by the way he typically builds arm strength into a season, Davis is throwing with less velocity and getting more outs.
“Every year I come in after spring training and I’ve always been a little down, and toward the second half I always pick it up,” Davis said. “And this year’s a little different just because I’m trying to pitch a little more instead of just relying on stuff. My command’s a lot better of the strike zone, I can attack hitters a lot easier being more relaxed.”
Unfortunately for Davis, it’s hard to find much evidence the “pitcher, not a thrower” mantra will pay long-term dividends. He’s certainly getting fewer K’s, with his fastball’s whiff rate down slightly compared to last year and his breaking stuff getting even fewer whiffs (just 2.6% for his curve and 7.2% with his slider; those rates were 5 and 13 percent, respectively, last year, and the MLB averages are 11.6% for the curve and 13.6% for the slider). But his declining punch out rate has come without better control or an uptick in ground ball rate.
His first-pitch strike percentage, which was 58.9 percent from 2009-2010, is a shade under 53% in 2011 (58-59% MLB average). Opposing batters are drawing a walk in 10% of their plate appearances against Davis, compared to 8.6% from ’09-’10. Consequently, he’s issuing about 3.9 walks per nine innings this season after allowing 3.3 free passes per nine in ’09 and ’10 (3.3 MLB average).
Davis was already a flyball-slanted pitcher coming into this year, posting a 39.2 GB% from ’09 to ’10, but he’s getting even fewer worm burners in 2011 (36.3%). So far, all those pitches lifted skyward haven’t been an issue — he has surrendered just two homers. However, Davis has a 2.9% home run per fly ball rate that’s bound to increase. If he had given up homers on fly balls (which isn’t something a pitcher has much control over) at a rate close to the AL average, he’d have a HR/9 mark of 1.2-1.3 instead of his actual 0.41.
While Davis is flirting with a sub-three ERA, his peripherals suggest that he has actually been over 30 percent worse than the average MLB pitcher (134 xFIP-). Maybe you feel that Davis’ .260 BABIP won’t climb quite as much as usual due to Tampa’s skilled fielders, and maybe he won’t have severe home run problems pitching in the power-suppressing Trop. But even so, Davis just isn’t showing the requisite control and earth-scorching style to survive with such a low strikeout rate. Either he’s going to find a way to miss more lumber, or he’s going to get beat with the regression stick.
Peavy, Blanton, Carrasco: Pitchers Returning from DL
Today let’s take a look at 3 pitchers that expect to make a start sometime this week after returning from the DL. With all three pitchers, it may be advisable to sit them for their first game back in order to see where each one’s fastball stands and to make sure that they don’t immediately re-injure themselves.
All the percentages owned are from ESPN.
Aybar & Anibal: Waiver Wire
Your Monday morning waiver wire features a shortstop and a starting pitcher, so let’s dive in…
Week 6 Two-Start Pitchers Update
Here is the latest update to Week 6 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.
Pitchers not listed on last update: Beckett, T. Hudson, Pelfrey, Blackburn and Sonnanstine.
Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Price, Lester, Hanson and Liriano.
Of the new starters let’s look at Mike Pelfrey. The good news is that Pelfrey has pitched well in two of his last three starts. The bad news is that he still has a 6.06 ERA and both of his ERA estimators are over 4.50, higher than his last three seasons.
Pelfrey’s game plan has always been to pound the ball low in the strike zone. Last year he added a splitter to his arsenal, which already included a sinker. But this year he has gotten away from that style of pitching and the result is a career-high 40.9 FB%. In his last three starts, Pelfrey has 29 FB and 23 GB.
Last year when Pelfrey won 15 games, he really took advantage of his home park. He was 10-3 with a 2.83 ERA in Citi Field and 5-6 with a 4.95 ERA in road parks. This year sees a similar big split. Pelfrey is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA at Citi Field and 0-3 with a 10.91 ERA in road parks.
This week, Pelfrey has road starts in Colorado and Houston. While neither park is playing as a strong offensive park so far in 2011, both have been hitter-friendly in the past. Given Pelfrey’s tendency to struggle away from Citi Field, it should be an easy decision to leave him on the bench this week.
Last week’s Sunday look was Jorge de la Rosa and the advice was to start him despite the two road starts. Here was his combined line for his starts against the Diamondbacks and Giants:
12 IP, 11 H, 6 ER, 7 BB, 13 Ks, 0 W, 2 QS
Two-Start Pitchers: Week 6
Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 6.
Edwin Jackson – It would be hard to find a pitcher whose peripherals from last year more closely matched what he’s done this year than Jackson. In 2010, Jackson had a 3.86 FIP and a 3.71 xFIP. This year the respective numbers are 3.83 and 3.71. Last year Jackson’s ERA was three-quarters of a run higher than his xFIP and this year it’s a half run higher than that. In 2011 he’s either been very good or really bad. And (coincidentally or not) he’s been really good at the Cell and, well you can guess how he’s been on the road. This week he has two road starts, so leave him out of your lineup if you can.
Mat Latos – Before last year’s drafts, I thought fantasy players were overvaluing Latos and he went out and posted a 3.78 K/BB ratio along with a 77.4 LOB%. This year, with his season delayed by a shoulder strain, Latos has not been the same pitcher. His K/BB is down to 2.50, still an impressive number but not what it was a year ago. His velocity has dropped 1.7 miles per hour from last year. Latos is also allowing more fly balls than a season ago and his HR rate is up, too. This week he has road starts against the Brewers and Rockies, typically two good HR parks, although Coors is not playing that way so far this year. If you can, err on the side of caution this week with Latos.
Ted Lilly – It’s been a ho-hum start of the year for Lilly but the good news is that he does not have to face the Cubs this week. Two of his last three starts have been against his former team and Chicago put up 10 ER in 10.1 IP versus Lilly in those two games. Against the rest of the league he has a 3.67 ERA. The Pirates have the next-to-worst OPS (.618) versus LH starters in the National League this year. Lilly’s other opponent this week is the Diamondbacks, who are middle of the pack versus LHP (.702) but who are last in the league in away runs scored. Part of that is because Arizona has played only 11 road games to date but part of it is that Chase Field helps their overall numbers. With Lilly on the road against the Pirates and home against the Diamondbacks, make sure he’s in your lineup.
Francisco Liriano – Not many pitchers can throw a no-hitter on a night where they allow six walks, but that’s what Liriano did in his last outing against the punch-less White Sox. It had been a disappointing season for Liriano prior to the no-hitter. Now the question becomes if he can use that as a springboard to get his season back on track. His strikeouts (5.51 K/9) are at a career-low while his walks (6.61) are at a career-high. This week he faces the Red Sox and Blue Jays. Boston leads the AL in walks (123) while Toronto is fourth (113). Give Liriano the week off if you can.
Brandon Morrow – An inured forearm sidelined Morrow at the beginning of the year but he has come back and made three starts in the majors. Last year, Morrow finished on a high note, as in his final 15 games he had a 3.53 ERA with 112 Ks in 89.1 IP. This year he has a 3.06 ERA with an 11.72 K/9, with Quality Starts on the road versus Tampa Bay and Texas. This week he goes up against Detroit and Minnesota. Tiger batters have the second-most strikeouts in the American League, while the Twins score the fewest runs per game (3.07) of any club in the loop. Make sure Morrow is active this week.
Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 6 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.
Lincecum, Price, Lester, Hanson, Cahill, Carpenter, Billingsley, Wilson, Scherzer, Pineda, Chacin, Zambrano, Greinke, Tomlin, E. Santana, Correia, Marquis, Arrieta, Wood, F. Garcia, Vazquez, Hammel, Capuano, Blanton, Karstens, Davies, A. Rodriguez, Collmenter.
Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.
Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 4 pitchers and how they fared.
Burnett – Advised to start. W, 6 Ks, 3.21 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 14 IP, 5 ER
Drabek – Advised to sit. W, 6 Ks, 8.64 ERA, 2.160 WHIP, 8.1 IP, 8 ER
Harrison – Advised to start. 2 Ks, 21.24 ERA, 4.071 WHIP, 4.2 IP, 11 ER
D. Hudson – Advised to start. 2 W, 11 Ks, 4.15 ERA, 1.462 WHIP, 13 IP, 6 ER
Masterson – Advised to sit. W, 14 Ks, 3.29 ERA, 1.171 WHIP, 13.2 IP, 5 ER
Freddy Garcia: Value in Pinstripes?
May 5, 2011
Freddy Garcia did not even make our initial AL starting pitcher rankings. After a strong start to the season, at least on the surface, in a month’s worth of work, the question is whether this old geezer has anything left to offer fantasy owners.
Homer Bailey, Jenrry Mejia and Dustin Moseley: NL Starting Pitchers
In today’s look at a few NL starting pitchers, I touch on two former top prospects, and a pitcher many people have not heard of.
Clay Buchholz: Don’t Buy Low
May 4, 2011
Clay Buchholz entered draft season as an obvious bust candidate to statistically-minded fantasy owners after finishing 2010 with the largest ERA-xFIP differential amongst qualified starters. However, Buchholz was at one point a top pitching prospect, like top three in all of baseball, and any scout would tell you that his stuff was good enough to make him one of the best young pitchers in the game. So the question was whether Buchholz’s ERA in 2011 would rise to the 4.00 level his xFIP suggested or if he would continue to improve his underlying skills while battling the luck regression gods, and see his ERA jump to just the low-to-mid 3.00 range. Well so far the bust side has been right, as he has posted a disappointing 4.81 ERA after six starts. Is it time to send his owner some offers? Nope.
Smoak & Norris: Waiver Wire
The calendar just flipped to May, so even the most patient fantasy owners among us must start re-evaluating roster spots. Here’s two young players that could help…
