Archive for Starting Pitchers

Sometimes you just get bitter. Like when your FanGraphs ottoneu Experts League team has just been staring at fifth place for a month and a half in a keeper league and there’s absolutely no way to know which way to go. Sell or buy? Well, let me have a healthy week or two and I’ll decide, eh?

The David Wright injury will hurt me, but it’s a situation in my outfield that has me most upset. Nelson Cruz went down – that was obviously a risk going in, given his history. Then Angel Pagan went down, and really that’s a ditto. And Grady Sizemore? That’s on me too I guess. Travis Snider was a backup plan, though, and that went out the window with all the strikeouts. Hey maybe I deserved it?

That doesn’t help me be any less bitter. So I head over to the new leaders team, the one belonging to Tim Heaney and the crew from KFFL. I should be able to find some sell-high guys there, right?

Uh, not so much. Alex Avila, Mark Teixeira, Brandon Phillips, Starlin Castro, Aaron Hill, Evan Longoria, Juan Pierre, Ian Desmond… looks fine here. On the staff? Dan Haren, Tommy Hanson and Jhoulys Chacin are all pre-season favorites and are strong bets to continue their fine performances. Huston Street, and Jordan Walden are his only official closers, but Kenley Jansen and Daniel Bard make for fine future closers. This is a nice team.

That isn’t to say that there aren’t a couple players on the team perhaps performing beyond their capabilities. Drew Stubbs is striking out 27.5% of the time and has a .349 BABIP supporting his .281 batting average right now. Once that BABIP returns to earth – and we’re talking .325ish territory, since he does have good speed – he won’t have a real-nice looking batting average. He’ll still have power and speed, though, as his .181 ISO is right in line with career norms and he stole 46 bases at his last stop in Triple A (in 472 PAs). So, yeah, still a good player.

Same theme with Curtis Granderson. Sure, he won’t slug .643 all year and his .364 ISO will return to earth some. But he’s also hitting the ball in the air more and squarely in his power prime at 30 years old. Even with a little power regression, KFFL should be able to bank at least 35 home runs from their $14 player. Not so bad. Once money is considered, does it even matter if the $1 Brennan Boesch is a platoon player with an inflated BABIP? He’s playing well enough to fill in for the suddenly resurgent Adam Lind. Can you sense the bitterness?

Dudes even got Alexi Ogando for $2 so that takes the sails right out from any mention of his .193 BABIP or continued platoon split (4.85 FIP against lefties). Well, at least they spent $18 on Delmon Young, amiright. Even some BABIP love won’t help if he continues to pound that rock into the ground 50% of the time. Gotta get em up to get em out.

What really gets me, though, is this graph from the new ‘Reports’ tab in ottoneu. Check my team going in the wrong direction, and KFFL going through the roof. It’s enough to eat your hat.

Last year, the Texas Rangers shifted lefty C.J. Wilson from the bullpen to the starting rotation. The results were superb: Wilson racked up 4.4 Wins Above Replacement, playing a prominent role for the 2010 AL West Division title winner and Junior Circuit representative in the World Series.

This past spring, the Rangers made another ‘pen arm a starter. No, not Neftali Feliz. Texas didn’t change its closer’s role, but rather decided to see how Alexi Ogando’s power fastball/slider combo played while facing lineups multiple times. Through seven starts, Ogando’s results look spectacular. He’s got a 2.06 ERA in 43.2 innings pitched, making the Rangers’ brass look like geniuses.

Ogando has enjoyed more breaks and friendly bounces than perhaps any other pitcher in the game this season, and he still must answer questions about how he’ll handle a starter’s workload and combat opposite-handed hitters. That said, his underlying performance is strong enough to suggest that Texas could have another successful bullpen convert on its hands.

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When Dan Haren was traded to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, many referenced the handy research from the Hardball Times which presented us with some data on the statistical effect of switching leagues if you’re a pitcher. In general, the move from the NL to the AL for a pitcher was expected to have a slight negative effect almost across the board including a deleterious effect on strikeouts, ERA, walks, and HR rate. What happened after the trade as you surely recall, was that his ERA dipped to 2.87 and his HR rate dropped almost by half, but his strikeouts fell pretty dramatically. This year, Haren is apparently out to prove he deserves “Mr. Outlier” as a nickname as he’s bucking the evidence that switching from the NL to the AL is universally a bad thing.

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A good story and a good leadoff hitter (for a bad offense)…

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Here is the latest update to Week 7 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Lincecum, Scherzer, Pineda, Zambrano, Tomlin, Liriano, Davies.

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Cain, Masterson, Duensing, Vargas, Coke, O’Sullivan and Coleman.

The new starters include guys you are either definitely going to start or guys that have already been covered recently. So, let’s take a look at Kyle Davies, who is owned in two percent of CBS Sports leagues.

As if that was not enough of an indication of what type of pitcher Davies is, Craig Brown at Royals Authority recently wrote an article in which he concluded: “Davies is the worst starting pitcher in the history of the game.”

With that as our backdrop, let’s point out something that Davies has done well this year. His strikeouts are slightly up and his walks are down a considerable amount, leading to a career-high 2.07 K/BB ratio. Davies always had good minor league strikeout numbers (620 Ks in 642 IP) but had trouble in the majors because his fastball has little life, despite its velocity.

Without overwhelming stuff, Davies is more hittable than an average major league starter. He has a lifetime .316 BABIP and this year that mark sits at .364 after 40.2 IP. He also has a below-average 63.1 LOB%. Those two reasons go a long way in explaining a 4.55 xFIP, which is below average for a SP in 2011, but hardly what we would expect from a contender for the worst pitcher ever.

Another interesting thing to consider is that Davies has a significant home/road split so far in 2011. He has a 4.58 ERA and a 2.40 K/BB ratio at home this year compared to a 9.00 ERA and a 1.89 K/BB ratio on the road.

This week Davies has home starts against Cleveland and St. Louis. He’s squared off twice against the Indians already this season, hurling a Quality Start when he faced them in Kansas City (6 IP, 2 ER 0 BB, 7 K) and then getting bombed (3.1 IP, 8 ER, 4 HR) when the venue was Progressive Field. The Indians are not the same team that batted around Davies the last time they saw him. In 13 games since their four-HR game versus the KC hurler, the Tribe is averaging four runs per game, down nearly a run from their overall season mark.

However, the Cardinals lead the National League with a 5.25 runs-per-game average.

By no means is this a recommendation to pick up Davies for his two starts this week. But hurlers with two home starts are always interesting and Davies has stronger peripherals than his overall ERA would indicate. Keep an eye on him this week and possibly keep him in mind as a potential streaming option in the future if he holds his own in Week 7.

Last week’s Sunday look was at Mike Pelfrey, who ended up pitching just once this past week and put up the following fantasy line:

W, 2 Ks, 4.05 ERA, 1.050 WHIP, QS

A little over a month ago, I compared the early 2011 average fastball velocity of starting pitchers with their 2010 marks. Looking back, I realize that was quite an early look, only about a week and a half into the season. So after another month of baseball having been played, it is time for an update. Monitoring velocity changes is very important for two reasons: 1) they sometimes hint at a hidden injury and 2) according to this research, every increase or decrease of one mile per hour for a starting pitcher’s average fastball velocity equates to a change of about 0.25 runs allowed per nine innings in that direction.

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Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 7.

Jon Garland – After getting roughed up in his first start of the season, Garland has hurled four straight Quality Starts. One thing especially interesting about Garland this year is his batted ball profile. Typically a ground ball pitcher, Garland set a career-high with a 51.9 GB% last year. After five games in 2011, he has a career-low 36.8 GB%. Yet his HR/9 of 1.13 is essentially his career average. He has a home start against the Brewers and then goes on the road for his first start in U.S. Cellular since leaving the White Sox after the 2007 season. The Brewers are less potent on the road (.609 OPS) than they are at home (.852 OPS) and the White Sox are a below-average offensive team this year, so see if Garland is available in your league to stream this week.

Matt Garza – The overall fantasy numbers (strikeouts excepted) are nothing special for Garza this year but he has been pitching much better than his record shows. His xFIP is two full runs lower than his ERA and his FIP is even better. In his last five games, Garza has four Quality Starts and a 2.90 ERA. The matchups are not overly favorable to Garza this week, with two road starts, including one in an AL park, but he has been pitching well so do not be afraid to put him in your lineup this week.

Ubaldo Jimenez – Fantasy leaguers still consider Jimenez a must-start after last year’s sterling performance. But the truth is that Jimenez has not been good so far in 2011. It looked like he might be finally turning the corner with his start against the Giants in the first week in May but then he failed to get out of the fourth inning last time out against the Mets. His K/9 is better than last season and his BABIP is virtually identical to 2010. But Jimenez has a 6.67 BB/9 and is being victimized by the long ball, with 4 HR in 29.2 IP. He needs a spot on your bench until he shows something more.

Rick Porcello – The beginning of 2011 looked ugly for Porcello, who allowed 10 ER in 10 IP, with 4 BB and 6 Ks. But since then he’s yet to allow more than 2 ER in a start and has a 3.0 K/BB ratio, with 21 Ks in 31.2 IP. His FIP and xFIP are both close to his actual ERA of 3.67. Porcello is throwing more changeups this year but otherwise appears the same pitcher he’s typically been. It’s just that the results are better. With one home start and an Interleague game in Pittsburgh, the matchups are decent enough for him this week, so get him in your lineup.

Edinson Volquez – First off, if you have not already read it, immediately check out Cistulli’s piece on Volquez, which helps explain why a guy with great stuff is getting horrible results. Unfortunately, while there may be some reason for optimism for Volquez, it’s hard to get excited about a guy with a walk rate that high. Combine it with an elevated HR rate and it adds up to a guy who should be on your bench at this point in time.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 7 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

F. Hernandez, Lee, Hanson, Price, Johnson, J. Garcia, Cain, Shields, Marcum, Masterson, G. Gonzalez, Anderson, Burnett, Nolasco, J. Sanchez, D. Hudson, Kuroda, Britton, Lewis, W. Rodriguez, Jackson, Lowe, Baker, Myers, Bailey, Stauffer, Zimmermann, Wolf, Duensing, Drabek, Lackey, Pineiro, Oswalt, Nova, Harrison, Pelfrey, Richard, Matsuzaka, Morton, Niese, Vargas, Westbrook, Coke, Litsch, Chatwood, Maholm, Lannan, Carrasco, Tillman, Galarraga, O’Sullivan, Mazzaro, Coleman, Mortensen.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 5 pitchers and how they fared.

Dickey – Advised to start. 4 Ks, 6.23 ERA, 1.539 WHIP, 13 IP, 9 ER
Hernandez – Advised to start. 5 Ks, 7.94 ERA, 2.118 WHIP, 11.1 IP, 10 ER
Jurrjens – Advised to start. 2 W, 6 Ks, 1.93 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 14 IP, 3 ER
Leake – Advised to start. 5 Ks, 17.18 ERA, 2.182 WHIP, 3.2 IP, 7 ER
Tomlin – Advised to sit. 5 Ks, 2.35 ERA, 0.391 WHIP, 7.2 IP, 2 ER

Leading up to the 2011 season, the Philadelphia Phillies’ Phantastic Four of Halladay, Hamels, Lee and Oswalt dominated any discussion about the NL East. Philly’s rotation has proven worth the hype, leading the majors in starting xFIP (2.69) by over half a run per nine frames. But the Atlanta Braves’ starters have been among the best in the majors, too, putting together a collective 3.35 xFIP that places second in the NL. While Philly’s rotation is fueled by guys making eight figure salaries, one of the key contributors for Atlanta is a rookie righty who didn’t hear his name called on draft day in 2008.

Within the course of a few years, Brandon Beachy has evolved from a part-time pitcher at Indiana Wesleyan who couldn’t buy a Kia with the free agent signing bonus that the Braves gave him ($20,000) to a starter who ranks among the likes of teammate Tommy Hanson and Clayton Kershaw in xFIP.

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Today’s Waiver Wire focuses on two ground ball pitchers who are enjoying good starts to their seasons, even though no one seems to be noticing.

Joel Pineiro: 11% owned

After five seasons (2004-2008) of being nearly unownable in anything other than deep AL or NL only leagues, Joel Pineiro has seen his career, both in real life and fantasy, rejuvenated by the addition of a sinker.  He was taught the pitch by St. Louis pitching coach Dave Duncan while with the Cardinals in 2008. The next season he saw ground ball percentage jump 60.5%, more than 12 points higher than the season before. Pineiro also saw his ERA, FIP, and xFIP get below 4.00, the first time any of them had been that low since 2003. He took his new found success to Anaheim where he only pitched 152 innings, but won 10 games and had a very respectable triple slash line (ERA, FIP, xFIP) of 3.84/3.84/3.73.

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With Dallas Braden scheduled to undergo shoulder surgery next Monday and expected to miss the rest of the season, Tyson Ross‘ spot in the Oakland Athletics’ rotation just became a little more secure. With a 2.51 ERA on the season, his ownership percentage in CBS leagues has climbed from 3% to 12% since week 4. Let’s see if he is truly worth an add.

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