A couple of weeks ago, I looked at the SwStk% metric and its relationship to K/9. In that article, I looked at pitchers in 2010, comparing their SwStk% and K/9 rates to determine who may be in line for a bump in strikeout rate in 2011 and who might be set for a decline. With a month now in the books, let us check in on some of the leaders in SwStk% who currently have a lower K/9 than might be expected.
Here is the latest update to Week 5 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.
Pitchers not listed on last update: Weaver, Hamels, de la Rosa, Buchholz, E. Jackson, Dempster.
Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Beckett, Oswalt, Tomlin, Rogers, Chatwood.
Of the new pitchers, let’s look at Jorge de la Rosa. After a strong finish to the 2009 season, where he was 15-3 over his final 22 games with a 3.93 ERA, many were predicting that de la Rosa was ready to become one of the top pitchers in the game. But a slow start in 2010, followed by a hand injury turned his 2010 campaign into a lost season.
Many fantasy players slept on de la Rosa, who had an ADP in the 160s prior to this season. For those fantasy players that kept the faith, de la Rosa has rewarded them with a fine start to the 2011 season, with a 4-0 record and a 2.61 ERA in April.
One of the big steps forward for de la Rosa this season is with his walk rate. With a career mark near 4.5 BB/9, de la Rosa has a sparkling 2.90 rate so far this season. And his improved command has not come with any dropoff in strikeouts, as his 8.42 essentially matches what he did in 2010 and is above his 8.00 lifetime mark.
In his last outing, de la Rosa had his best game of the year, as he allowed just 1 ER in 7 IP, with 0 BB and 9 Ks. He’s been lucky with his HR rate, but his 2.90 K/9 shows how well he has pitched.
He has two road starts this week, including one in Chase Field against the Diamondbacks, where he is 0-3 lifetime, but it is hard to imagine sitting him with how well he has been pitching so far in 2011.
Last week’s Sunday look was Jesse Litsch. The take away was to keep him on the bench this week because of his matchups but to monitor his peripherals to see if he was getting grounders and strikeouts. Here was his combined line for his starts against the Rangers and Yankees:
12 IP, 8 ER, 4 BB, 6 Ks, 20 GB, 16 FB
While the rest of the world is going gaga over the resurgence of Bartolo Colon (I’m not buying it), there’s another pitcher out there who has apparently hopped into his Delorean and gunned it to 88. San Francisco’s Ryan Vogelsong made his first start of the season in replacement of the injured Barry Zito this past week, pitched 5.2 innings allowing two runs on four hits and a pair of walks, and picked up his first win as a starter since 2002. He actually looked better than his stat line reads as opening jitters got the better of him in the first, but he settled down very nicely and matched a career high eight strikeouts. But now the question remains — is he worth a spot on your fantasy roster? Read the rest of this entry »
Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 5.
R.A. Dickey – Last year’s feel-good story is off to a rough start this year, with a 1-3 record and an ERA nearly a full run higher than 2010. Walks have been a big problem for Dickey, as his 4.09 BB/9 is way above last year’s 2.17 mark. But after giving up 12 BB in his first 17.1 IP, Dickey has allowed just 3 BB in his last 15.2 innings. With home games against the Giants and Dodgers, look for Dickey to get back to last year’s results, where he was 7-3 with a 1.99 ERA at Citi Field, and get him into your lineup.
Livan Hernandez – Last year, Hernandez got off to a hot start, which prompted Dave Cameron to call him: The Luckiest Man Alive. Regression hit in his final 21 starts (5-9, 4.48 ERA) and his overall numbers were what we would expect, save for a 5.8 HR/FB rate. Flash forward to this year and his 2011 numbers are similar to what he produced overall in 2010. His xFIP is nearly identical to what it was a year ago, but his ERA is 1.31 runs lower than his xFIP due mainly to a low HR rate. Here are the HR/FB rates for Hernandez the past five seasons, starting with 2007: 11.8, 10.7, 8.4, 5.8, 3.4.
Regression will hit Hernandez again this year, but the problem with regression is while we know it’s coming, we’re just not sure when. We do know that Hernandez faces two teams in the Phillies and Marlins this week that are below average in the National League in hitting homers. While Hernandez has had some trouble on the road this year, my feeling is that the good luck with HR will continue another week and I am going to have him in my lineup.
Jair Jurrjens – Since being activated from the disabled list, Jurrjens has been masterful in three starts, going 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA. While that is accompanied by all of the unsustainable marks you would expect, like a 92.6 LOB%, one thing Jurrjens has impressed with and might be able to continue with going forward is his K/BB ratio. It currently sits at 2.80, thanks to a 2.05 BB/9. He goes up against the Brewers and Phillies, two teams that are below average in the NL drawing walks. Both teams are above average in scoring runs, so it certainly will not be an easy week for Jurrjens, but I like his chances.
Mike Leake – In a bit of unusual circumstance, Leake is 3-0 yet his xFIP (3.58) is lower than his ERA (4.40). In his second season in the majors, Leake has upped his K rate, going from a 5.92 K/9 a season ago to 7.63 this season. In his last three starts, Leake has 18 Ks in 20 IP. He’s pitched a Quality Start in four of his five games this year, stumbling only in a road game in Arizona. This week Leake squares off against the Astros and Cubs, two teams with a combined 19-30 record. Get the youngster into your lineup this week.
Josh Tomlin – A perfect five-for-five in Quality Starts, the previously unheralded Tomlin has been embraced by fantasy players, with ownership rates in CBS Sports leagues higher than Dickey, Hernandez and Leake. The righty Tomlin has an average fastball velocity of just 87.6, but throws four other pitches, does a nice job mixing them and has positive Pitch Type Values on all of his non-fastball offerings.
But while it has been fun to watch Tomlin come out of nowhere, he does have a .179 BABIP and a 91.7 LOB%. With two West Coast road starts this week against the A’s and Angels, this may be the time that regression shows up. Look for alternatives to Tomlin this week.
Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 5 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.
Sabathia, Lester, Verlander, Haren, Beckett, Kershaw, Oswalt, Hanson, Gallardo, Lohse, Harang, Ogando, A. Sanchez, McClellan, Davis, Holland, Bumgarner, Guthrie, McCarthy, Colon, Buehrle, Rogers, Francis, Happ, Bedard, Penny, McDonald, Volstad, Chatwood, Gorzelanny, Ross, Saunders, Vogelsong, Bergesen, Reyes.
Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.
Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 3 pitchers and how they fared.
Beachy- Advised to sit. W, 14 Ks, 1.50 ERA, 0.583 WHIP, 12 IP, 2 ER
Matsuzaka – Advised to sit. 2 W, 12 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.400 WHIP, 15 IP, 0 ER
Pavano – Advised to start. W, 6 Ks, 7.71 ERA, 1.629 WHIP, 11.2 IP, 10 ER
Vargas – Advised to start. 7 Ks, 6.55 ERA, 1.546 WHIP, 11 IP, 8 ER
Zambrano – Advised to start. 14 Ks, 4.15 ERA, 0.923 WHIP, 13 IP. 6 ER
After nearly a month in the books, it is time to update the AL starting pitcher rankings. As a fantasy baseball projectionist and owner, I am not much of a tinkerer and it takes a lot to change my opinion after only a month of play. At this point, I completely ignore a pitcher’s ERA and instead focus solely on the underlying skill set and metrics; it is process over results for me. So keep this in mind when perusing through the risers and fallers and remember that the original rankings were a compilation of eight RotoGraphers’ individual rankings. Although I would love to adjust all the rankings to reflect my own personal opinion, I will not give in to temptation and simply move players up and down based on potential new information we have learned so far.
Our first trade! The FanGraphs/ottoneu Experts’ League has finally consummated a trade. I gave Andy Behrens my $1 Aaron Harang, and he gave me his $1 Placido Polanco. Early polling on the ottoneu Facebook page (like it! doooo it!) did not favor me, so I’ll do a quick defense. For your reference, the full post-draft rosters are listed in the introduction post here.
I realize that on value alone, I’d rather have Aaron Harang for my team. There, I’ve got that out of the way. Harang, perhaps finally healthy after two years where he only managed about 270 innings combined, is looking good. He’s got his trademark control back, and just enough strikeouts to make the package work. Polanco is also playing well, but his .128 ISO would be his best number in eight years, and his .375 BABIP will surely regress. I’ll take the ZiPs RoS and take a .300-ish batting average with 13-15 combined steals and home runs.
And that’s the key. I’ll take those numbers. I’m not sure Harang would have cracked my lineup too often. He’s still an extreme flyball pitcher – his 33% ranks 12th-worst among qualified pitchers and fits right into his career line (37.8%). As such, he’s probably a confident start about 60% of the time in mixed leagues. On my team, he fit in right behind Josh Johnson, Mat Latos, Ricky Romero, Jaime Garcia, John Danks, Wandy Rodriguez and Derek Holland. You have enough innings for about 6 starters’ worth of work, so basically I was betting that Rodriguez and Holland could handle that final starters’ worth of a workload. That’s a bet I think I can win.
We already looked around at the league and determined that there were only a few teams with extra MIs available. With Ryan Raburn looking like a platoon bat in real life and fantasy, I needed an MI. I offered Aaron Harang for Howie Kendrick (ZiPs RoS .280 with 24 combined HR and SB) and was quickly rebuffed. The best other deal I managed to find was a $5 Alcides Escobar for my $2 Matt LaPorta. I didn’t mind the deal, but my firstbasemen, in a 12-team league, are Gaby Sanchez, Mitch Moreland, Justin Smoak and Matt LaPorta. I think I need to keep all of those guys to see who works out – they’re all flawed.
So, in the end, I traded away a cheap superfluous older player to another team for their cheap, superfluous player. Kudos to user DScott for predicting Behrens as my trading partner. It seemed like a good match. Participant Chad Young (Amateur Hour), when writing about this league on his blog, agreed for the most part – even though it cost him a chance at Matt LaPorta. What do you guys think?
When searching each week for those under-owned gems for deep league use, it reminds me how bad I feel for those Only-leaguers dealing with an injury. Your replacement options are throw up inducing and you’re basically flipping a coin between two hitters that get five at-bats a week. That is no fun! Though the first player discussed below is most certainly owned in all NL-Only leagues, he should be available in deeper mixed leagues and would therefore be worth a look.
Today’s emphasis: versatility. There’s nothing better than a quality player eligible at multiple positions…
Ground ball rate is one of the three primary peripherals, or skills as I like to call them, that make up the trifecta (which also includes K/9 and BB/9) I look at first when evaluating a pitcher. Simply from my experience and without the benefit of specific research to back this up, it seems that a pitcher’s GB% is generally pretty consistent from year to year, and certainly more so than his strikeout and walk rates. The only real ways for a pitcher to increase his ground ball rate would be to alter his pitch mix, learn and start throwing a new pitch that induces grounders more frequently or consciously locate pitches lower in the strike zone than in past seasons. All of these methods are difficult and require a pitcher to start doing something differently than he had been doing previously. GB% stabilizes at about 150 batters faced, a level at which the top pitchers in the category have nearly reached. As a result, large increased in GB% should be taken seriously.
Here is the latest update to Week 4 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.
Pitchers not listed on last update:
F. Hernandez, Liriano, Young, Nova, Lannan, Maholm, Litsch
Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Dickey, Colon, Bedard, Blackburn
Of the new pitchers let’s look at Jesse Litsch. Earlier this season, Litsch got caught up in a numbers game and was sent to the minors because he had an available option while Jo-Jo Reyes did not. Litsch had been in three starts before the demotion and pitched well in two of them. He made just one appearance for Triple-A Las Vegas and was pulled after only three innings to make sure he was available to pitch early this week for Toronto.
Litsch is not overpowering but he throws at least five pitches, generally has good control and gets lots of ground ball outs. In his three appearances in the majors this year, he’s even fanned 16 in 17.1 IP, although he’s allowed more walks than he usually does. But with his ERA below his career average, and his FIP and xFIP both below his current ERA, it’s a tradeoff that has worked well for Litsch, assuming he can keep it up.
He’s throwing strikes early, with an F-Strike% of 60.5 percent, which is a career best. Also, Litsch is setting a personal record with a 10.7 SwStr%. He’s done this with a change in his pitching pattern. Litsch has almost completely abandoned his curve ball, throwing more sliders and change-ups, instead.
Litsch rejoins the Blue Jays in time to make road starts in Texas and New York. It’s not the ideal way to get back to the majors and it is hard to recommend putting him in your lineup this week. But Litsch is a pitcher to monitor going forward. Check his peripherals in these two starts and see if he’s still getting ground balls and strikeouts.
The Yankees and the Rangers rank 1-2 in the American League in runs per game. Therefore, Litsch could give up a lot of runs this week and still be a pitcher worth adding if he holds his spot in the rotation and pitches well in other regards.
Last week’s Sunday night look was Wandy Rodriguez. He had 14 IP, 5 ER, 13 H, 16 Ks and a 1-1 record with a QS.
