Over the past couple of weeks, I have published several of my hitter projections with a detailed explanation of each metric projected. Today, it’s finally time to switch over to the pitching side. Kris Medlen returned from Tommy John surgery with a bang last year, posting a microscopic 0.97 ERA and 0.81 WHIP as a starter. A performance like that will grab the attention of fantasy owners and it has vaulted him up the ADP charts, as he has been getting drafted 75th overall and 14th among starting pitchers on Mock Draft Central. With a limited history, projecting him is tough. Let’s go through the process, of which you can read more about here.

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In the coming weeks, we’ll be covering each team’s potential depth charts in an effort to shine a spotlight on the interesting playing time battles that will be waged this spring. Obviously none of these depth charts are set in stone — rather they should function to focus your attention in the right places to find cheap fantasy value.

Here’s all we can say that we know for certain about the Dodger rotation right now, as pitchers & catchers around baseball are reporting to camp: Clayton Kershaw is going to start on Opening Day against the Giants, and Zack Greinke is going to follow him. Read the rest of this entry »

Phew. After a nearly four and a half hour snake draft online, I have officially completed the earliest draft in my fantasy baseball career. LABR stands for League of Alternative Baseball Reality, and along with Tout Wars, is one of the two most publicized “expert” leagues. In the past, LABR has had only two leagues, an AL-Only and NL-Only, with both formats using a live auction in Arizona to select players. Last year, a mixed league with an online draft was formed and I participated in the inaugural season as well. With that background out of the way, let’s get into more league specifics.

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In the coming weeks, we’ll be covering each team’s potential depth charts in an effort to shine a spotlight on the interesting playing time battles that will be waged this spring. Obviously none of these depth charts are set in stone — rather they should function to focus your attention in the right places to find cheap fantasy value.

Projected Rotation:

Jorge de la Rosa
Jhoulys Chacin
Juan Nicasio
Jeff Francis
Drew Pomeranz

Waiting in the Wings:

Christian Friedrich
Tyler Chatwood
Chris Volstad

No matter what the venue is, pitchin’ ain’t easy. The humidor has helped, but pitching well in Coors Field remains to baseball what invading Russia in winter is to infantries: difficult and bordering on impossible. Rockies starting pitchers have managed to keep their collective ERA under 4.50 just twice since 2000 and their home ERA over the same span is a rather inflated 5.02. On paper, the Rockies appear to have a very similar rotation to last year’s less-than-august crew. Their starters combined for 5.1 WAR last year or 0.4 WAR less than Clayton Kershaw had on his own, which would seem to portend more rough sailing for the Rockies in 2013.

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In the coming weeks, we’ll be covering each team’s potential depth charts in an effort to shine a spotlight on the interesting playing time battles that will be waged this spring. Obviously none of these depth charts are set in stone — rather they should function to focus your attention in the right places to find cheap fantasy value.

Today we head out to San Diego to check in on the Padres rotation, which could be legitimately labeled a mess at the moment. The good news is that there are some intriguing options, the bad news is for the forecasters (like me!) trying to project innings total for their potential starters. It’s not fun, let me tell you. I won’t pretend to really have a clue as to which five starters will open the season in the rotation, but I will do my best to analyze the options.

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In the coming weeks, we’ll be covering each team’s potential depth charts in an effort to shine a spotlight on the interesting playing time battles that will be waged this spring. Obviously none of these depth charts are set in stone — rather they should function to focus your attention in the right places to find cheap fantasy value.

This week, we begin a team-by-team look at depth charts in the infield, outfield, starting rotation and bullpen, and we’ll be highlighting position battles and any other interesting stories. We start with the National League West division and today I will be analyzing the starting rotation in Arizona. The top four are pretty much set in stone, with Ian Kennedy, Trevor Cahill, Wade Miley and Brandon McCarthy slotted in. That last spot, however, is very much up for grabs and is worth monitoring.

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Trevor Cahill has come a long way in four seasons. After a questionable performance during his rookie year, Cahill has steadily improved over his career. His WAR reflects this too, as it’s risen from 0.6 to 3.4 over the last four seasons. A decent chunk of that improvement can be tied to Cahill’s strikeout rate, which has also steadily risen over his career. While Cahill has been around for what seems like a long time, he’s still young, not turning 25 until March. Because of that, it’s still plausible to think there’s a chance for Cahill to get even better.

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Right-hander Brandon Morrow has been a fantasy sleeper since transitioning to the starting rotation full-time in 2010. He’s always been a guy with electric stuff, huge strikeout rates and solid FIPs/SIERAs — but his ERA has never seemingly lived up to the billing due to low strand rates and poor command. For many owners, he became the quintessential fantasy tease the past few years: a guy with enormous potential who always disappointed in the end.

As they say…

Fool me once — 4.49 ERA in 2010 — shame on you.
Fool me twice — 4.72 ERA in 2011 — shame on me.

Fool me three times … well, that wasn’t going to happen for many owners. Consecutive years of disappointment proved too much. In fact, several people I know blacklisted Morrow and simply refused to draft him for the 2012 season.

However, those fantasy owners who drafted the right-hander last year and trusted Morrow would finally deliver on his potential were rewarded. He compiled a 2.96 ERA, cut his walk rate to a career-best 2.96 BB/9, and posted the tenth-best WHIP (1.11) among all starters who threw at least 100 innings. Injuries held him back from a top-tier fantasy season, but the message came through loud and clear: Brandon Morrow has finally arrived.

But perhaps that was the wrong message to hear.

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They say adversity creates opportunity, whoever “they” are. But there’s likely no group that appreciates that quite as much as fantasy baseball mavens. With Chris Carpenter apparently headed for the disabled list, potentially aeternum, there’s an obvious trickle down effect on the St. Louis Cardinals rotation. The immediate beneficiaries are likely to be some combination of Joe Kelly, Trevor Rosenthal, and/or Shelby Miller.

What we know is the Cardinals still have Adam Wainwright, Jake Westbrook, and Jaime Garcia. What we don’t know is how healthy Garcia is after having his ailing shoulder derail his ability to pitch in the playoffs this past season. But uncertainty about Garcia only further cements Lance Lynn in the rotation. Lynn, as you’ll recall, was bounced from rotation to bullpen after he started to get shelled in August. It wasn’t entirely clear if they wanted to use Lynn as a potent setup man for Jason Motte or if they planned for him to start games. With Carpenter down, they probably get their answer whether they wanted it or not.

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Monday’s surprising Oakland/Houston trade has generated a lot of buzz in baseball circles. While most of the discussion centered around Jed Lowrie and Chris Carter, one interesting name headed out of the Bay Area is Brad Peacock, former Nationals blue-chipper who was moved to Oakland last offseason in the Gio Gonzalez deal. Many may remember there was a fair amount of sleeper buzz last spring surrounding Washington’s former number one prospect, even after he was slated to start the season in Triple-A. Unfortunately, he just never seemed to put it together. Peacock, who seemed to be a candidate to be the first recall after the Athletics broke camp, eventually struggled to a 6.01 ERA for the Sacramento River Cats, never getting the call to make the trip short trip west down I-80.

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