In what is likely my last Pod Projection post of the year (my eBook teaches you how to forecast players yourself!), Johnny Cueto wins the honor of finishing up the series. Cueto has posted sub-3.00 ERAs two years running now, despite all ERA estimators sitting significantly above those marks. Great fortune (skill?) in the three “luck” metrics we analyze is the explanation for his ERA estimator beating ways. Can it continue?
The pitcher rankings! My favorite. There are just so many of them, and so many different ways to project and predict. Do you focus on injuries and their likelihood? Do you focus on performance? Are you risk-averse and like veterans, or do you go for broke and get the young guys?
As usual, the best approach is probably to mix it up. Get an older, undervalued guy — could be Jered Weaver or Roy Halladay, depending on which ranker you ask. Get a hot young prospect — Jeff Samardzija, Marco Estrada or Matt Harvey perhaps? Get an injury risk — maybe Jake Peavy or or Brandon Morrow? And throw in a ground-ball dude with lower upside like Trevor Cahill or Tim Hudson for good measure. Hey, I don’t mind this mythical staff we’ve just created, and it wouldn’t be impossible to draft it.
Next stop on the Pod Projections train is last year’s breakout starter Chris Sale, who spent his first season in the White Sox rotation. While I cannot claim credit for expecting him to be that good, I was a huge fan heading into the season. But after a more human second half that included a 4.03 ERA and a significant innings increase, what should we expect as a follow up?
Projected Rotation
Matt Garza
Jeff Samardzija
Edwin Jackson
Scott Baker
Scott Feldman
Waiting in the Wings
Travis Wood
Arodys Vizcaino
Casey Coleman
Michael Bowden
Rebuilds happen. Eras end, the great players leave or retire, and the team has to move on. The goal of any front office is to prolong periods of dominance as long as possible and to shorten the inevitable rebuilding phase. The Cubs haven’t been to the playoffs since Barack Obama won his first presidential election and haven’t won a playoff game in nearly a decade, so it seems fair to say that the Cubs are in that rebuilding phase. The question now is how much longer they’ll be there. Read the rest of this entry »
It’s been over a week since I shared my last Pod Projection, so let’s get back on the saddle. Easily tallying the second highest number of votes was Max Scherzer. Clearly, Scherzer set your heart aflutter when he posted that 2.69 ERA in the second half. Funny, it was just the luck pendulum swinging the other way, rather than any change in skills, as his xFIP was very similar in each half. On to the projection we go.
Yesterday, Alexi Ogando struggled against the Kansas City Royals in his first appearance of the year. While it is not uncommon for a pitcher to struggle during spring training, it was how he struggled which worries me. He struggled with his delivery and maintaining his velocity. His next few outings should be monitored closely to see if he has a possible injury.
The editors apologize for the title error. As reader Matt Bertelli notes below, however, “No one would read the post if it said Astros rotation.”
The Astros make the move to the American League this year and this switch is going to hurt their pitching staff. Of course, even in the National League this was not a staff that made fantasy owners very excited, but now it becomes even more of a struggle to identify anyone worth pursuing in shallower leagues.
For the most part, the Athletics have an exciting young starting rotation. But with youth comes inexperience, so it’s a group that could lead the team to another playoff visit or break the hearts of Oakland fans. Enough with the cliches, let’s dive into the players.
Your voices have been heard. Tallying six big votes for the next pitcher to be Pod Projected was 2012 breakout starting pitcher, Jeff Samardzija. I owned him in all of my leagues last year after scooping him up post-draft during spring training and I know how to spell his name without looking it up! Impressive feat, I know. So what will the “Shark” do for an encore?
The Texas Rangers’ hopes for contention in the strong AL West depends on whether their starting pitching can take a step forward. The club enters the year with more uncertainty at the position than they’ve experienced in recent seasons. In the past, the team had enough depth at the position to survive a let-down or injury. With Colby Lewis and Neftali Feliz out until at least mid-season, the club could be in trouble if any of their top-five options falter.