You got a bonus pick last week and we still killed it overall. Edwin Jackson was the only ho-hum start, posting a decent ERA but failing to strike many batters out or secure a victory. The rest were on point, though, so let’s try and ride that momentum for what might be the final edition of “Stream Aim Fire” before we move to a new format. As always, I aim for 50/25/15/5 ownership wherever possible (this week it wasn’t, really).

I also want to note quickly that if the Arz/SD series were in Petco, I’d be rolling with Stults, McCarthy and Cashner. As it is, though, it’s going to be nearly 100 degrees at Chase Field, pumping up the likely run scoring environment for that series. Chase has been uncommonly friendly so far but won’t be as things heat up.

A.J. Griffin (49% owned) – The strikeouts are down a bit and the walks up a bit from his stellar rookie season, but Griffin is still a decent fantasy option. The decline in ground ball rate is also of some concern, as is the ridiculous 24.1% line drive rate. So why stream a 4.20 FIP given all of these negative indicators? In a word, Astros. The Streamin’ ‘Stros continue to be an effective strategy (and unfortunately the Marlins don’t provide us with any options for Friday and Saturday), as they have a below-average wOBA and a well above-average strikeout rate. Last time he faced Houston, he posted 8 strikeouts in six innings, allowing eight baserunners and just a pair of runs. Dial it up again.

Read the rest of this entry »

I had heard a lot of varied opinions about Pittsburgh Pirates pitching prospect Gerrit Cole over the last couple years so I was glad of the chance to finally lay eyes on him live this week. It’s clear he has tremendous stuff and a talented arm. Whether Cole ever becomes the kind of pitcher who can lead the Pirates staff back to the playoffs or not remains to be seen.

Read the rest of this entry »

In his first two full seasons with the Rays, Jeremy Hellickson has perplexed the saber-nerds. How does a guy who has posted pretty weak strikeout rates, walked more batters per nine than the league average and has allowed more fly balls than grounders manage to prevent earned runs like he’s one of the best pitchers in the American League? The answer is actually pretty simple — he stranded runners at league leading rates and avoided hits on balls in play like a champ.

Read the rest of this entry »

Here at RotoGraphs, we receive a lot of would you trade/drop questions from readers. In response, we figure an article focusing on which players we are buying or selling might be helpful for the readership. So, let’s give this a shot. Let us know what you think in the comments.

Fantasy owners should have a decent grasp on their team by May. At this point in the year, sleepers have had a month to show they were worth a draft pick, and older players have shown signs of decline. While not perfect, both BABIP and FIP/xFIP can give you an idea of whether certain performances are sustainable going forward. On top of evaluating their own teams, fantasy owners can target buy-low players from other teams, making a move that will greatly impact the outcome of their leagues. Andrew Cashner and Marco Estrada may have gotten off to different starts, but neither player should be valued based strictly on their performances this season.

Read the rest of this entry »

It has been 40 starts for Jake Peavy since the start of 2012 and his ERA is right at 3.35. While that is a far cry away from his Cy Young caliber seasons in the mid-2000’s, his consistency and reliability has really propelled him to become an undervalued fantasy asset over the past two seasons. Since there is always a fear of injury around Peavy, prospective owners are sometimes weary to pull the trigger or draft Peavy, but I think that makes Peavy a great buy at this point.
Read the rest of this entry »

Yes, the sell highiest. The easiest way to identify buy low and sell high candidates among starting pitchers is to export the advanced tab of the leader board into Excel and then simply subtract the pitcher’s SIERA from his ERA. Sort and voilà, you now have your list of pitchers who are most outperforming and underperforming their SIERA marks. Of course, you shouldn’t blindly take that list as gospel, as some pitchers have proven that they can consistently post ERAs higher or lower than their SIERAs. But it’s the quickest way to generate a list of names for further analysis.

After performing this exercise, Matt Moore was not the biggest SIERA outperformer. But, given his name value and preseason draft cost, he is the one most worth shopping. He currently ranks eighth among all qualified starters in ERA outperformance, with a 4.11 SIERA versus a 2.29 ERA. While that alone should make him a sell high candidate, there are additional warning signs beneath the surface.

Read the rest of this entry »

We’re coming to an end of the series! We’ve pushed the consensus bullpen ranks over to the Bullpen Report guys, so they’ll have that to you soon. But for these four rankers, this episode is drawing to a halt. You can find all the updated ranks on your right, linked in that helpful little box.

The ranks, and the comments, have provided us with content for the coming weeks. Thank you for communicating which players are the most divisive. That allows us to know exactly which players we should be breaking down, RotoGraphs style. Add to that our timely coverage of players in the news, and we’re set.

Pitching changes on a dime though. While hitters give us their customary four or five plate appearances in a game, pitchers give us roughly five times that information every time they appear. So it’s fair that we break down every appearance for them and weight recent work heavily. And yet, every pitcher has a baseline, and we know how luck, park and weather factors can influence any one matchup. So we have to keep their careers in mind.

Read the rest of this entry »

Predicting the future performance of baseball players is a wildly frustrating endeavor. When projecting a hitter’s stat line, it’s impossible to account for the player having a BABIP that’s nowhere close to their career average. When projecting a pitcher, it’s hard to know when their HR/FB rate is going to swing drastically away from their career average. The shifts in “luck” make projecting seem like a fool’s errand at times.

But it may be even more frustrating when something within the player’s control changes completely. When predicting the future, you largely have to rely on the assumption that what the player puts into the equation will remain relatively the same. But of course that’s not the case. Hitters will lose plate discipline out of nowhere. Pitchers will lose the ability to induce swings and misses. It just happens. But it’s often very hard to know when those changes are going to happen.

Another example of the input changing is a shift in the mix of pitches a pitcher will use. Read the rest of this entry »

Among qualified starters, right-hander Anibal Sanchez has arguably been the best pitcher in all of baseball. His 1.45 FIP leads Major League Baseball, and if you’re one who favors SIERA over FIP, his 2.50 SIERA still ranks third. It’s the type of pitcher the Tigers hoped he could become when they inked him to a five-year, $88M contract over the winter.

Sanchez’s rate statistics have been beautiful this season, but perhaps the biggest story for fantasy owners is the significant uptick in strikeouts. His 31.3% strikeout percentage is by far the best of his career. Prior to 2013, his career-high K% was 24.3% in 2011. The massive jump has left many owners wondering if it’s sustainable.

Read the rest of this entry »

Over his past 28 starts, Mike Minor has a 2.75 ERA. That is just under a full season worth of starts with a miniscule ERA, so I think it is about time Minor is taken a bit more seriously. Even amongst the Braves crowd, and I know because I am entrenched in it, he is looked at among many as a back end type who is on a hot streak. People are just waiting for him to explode and revert back to the Minor of old.

Given his peripheral metrics, there is reason to expect that to happen. His BABIP has been suppressed over the past two seasons, with a .252 mark last year and a .239 this season. While those numbers are unsustainable, the fact that he allows the most fly balls in baseball should let him continue to post low BABIPs even with high home run rates.
Read the rest of this entry »