I jinxed it. Got all fat and happy with a couple of weeks of success and trusted my gut a little too much. Straily fail, Marcum (continued) fail, Slowey mega-fail. Do I still believe in these guys? Not really with Slowey, but I stand by the fact that Straily has plus talent (though he’ll be sent down soon after another bad start Wednesday), while Marcum is still working his way through myriad problems. Onward and upward, streamers. Trust me one more time, as we may have a format change for next week. (And hey, if you want some confirmation I’m not completely full of it, I AM doing well in Fangraphs the Game for starting pitchers. It’s something, I guess.) As always, I aim for 50/25/15/5 ownership, roughly, when the streamers available allow.

Edwin Jackson (25% owned) – I recommended him last weekend and he did us no harm, so let’s roll the dice again, shall we? The Mets strike out at an above-average clip and are a below-average offense. They do take a fair number of walks, though, and Jackson’s control is yet to come into form this season (9.9% walk rate, his highest since 2007). Still, Jackson gets the strikeouts you seek and has a 3.50 FIP and 3.70 xFIP sitting below his 6.02 ERA. He’s not the best bet for a win thanks to anemic run support from his Cubs, but he should be safe for the ratios and punch-outs.
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We know he is a pitcher, and we know he is a relatively good pitcher who is left-handed and pitches in one of the most hitter friendly parks in the sport. We also know that in 282.2 innings he has been worth 5.1 WAR, which is awfully impressive. But just how good is he and how heavily should you be targeting him in fantasy leagues?
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Travis Wood has a 2.03 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. He’s now thrown 53.1 innings and given up only 31 hits, striking out 36 opposing batters. Travis Wood will destroy all comers.

That’s probably what owners are telling you anyway.

You don’t have to dig too deep to notice that Wood’s FIP is 3.65 and xFIP is 4.46 (his career xFIP is 4.44). His strikeout rate and walk rates are lined up neatly with his career averages (and neither are very good), and he’s really living off that .186 BABIP and 83% strand rate. If you’re busy, there’s the end of the story, move on to another award winner by Jeff Sullivan.

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Andrew Cashner has always been a tantalizing pitcher. Armed with impressive stuff, he’s already shown flashes of brilliance in the rotation. But due to injuries, we haven’t been able to see Cashner dominate over a long period of time. With Cashner getting his fifth start of the season Tuesday, he’s already matched his previous career high. The results have been mixed. Cashner’s getting by with a strong 2.84 ERA, but his 4.04 FIP and 4.34 xFIP indicate struggles are ahead. A major part of that has been Cashner’s inability to get strikeouts. Cashner struck out 28.8% of hitters as a starter last year, but that’s down to 17.1% in 2013. The biggest culprit appears to be the disappearance of his hard slider.

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John Lackey | Boston Red Sox | @ Tampa Bay on Tuesday

Adding John Lackey is somewhat like having a huge bowl of ice cream 30 minutes before bed. You hate yourself and know it’s not really good for you. But you can’t help yourself can you? It’s hard to turn down a few scoops of your favorite flavor, and it’s hard to turn down a name you recognize that is currently attached to a 2.82 ERA and 3.23 xFIP.

Lackey has those numbers thanks to a 24.7% K% and 7.2% BB%. He can probably maintain a walk rate like that, but the K rate will likely regress. His swinging strike rate isn’t terrible at 8.1%, but he’s not going to strike out more than a batter per inning at that rate. And his velocity isn’t quite what it used to be. Expect him to settle in the 18%-19% range.

The matchup with Tampa actually isn’t great. They started slow, but they’re currently 4th in the league in wRC+ and lead the league in that category so far in May. But even if you decide to pass on Lackey on Tuesday, he’s worth picking up as a flier. Read the rest of this entry »

Derek Holland is starting to figure things out. After four up-and-down seasons, the 26-year-old lefty is pitching like a top-of-the-rotation starter. Holland has always shown the ability to surprise, but what he’s done this year is even more unexpected. Through 49.2 innings, Holland’s 2.40 FIP ranks ninth among qualified starters. Even when you adjust for his home run rate, Holland’s 3.28 xFIP says his performance is legit. Holland is relying on the same five pitches he’s used his entire career, but he’s utilizing the slider more often. The result of that change has been driving Holland’s success this season.

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Cole Hamels has been among the finest starting pitchers going on six seasons now. In fantasy baseball terms, during that time span, Hamels has been a beast in most formats. He’s 7th overall in wins with 82, second in WHIP with a stingy 1.13, and 6th in strikeouts with well over 1100. And in the last two seasons, he’s seemingly taken his game to a new level, compiling 9 wins over replacement between 2011-2012. But so far this year, his results haven’t been what owners have been looking for. A 4.40 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and a 7.49 K/9 rate are all well behind his career averages.

Is he hurt? Is he on the path to mediocrity? Did he fake his birth certificate?

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We’re starting to get on a roll in this corner of the internet now, with a 60% success rate overall and back-to-back weeks going 3-for-4. We also haven’t had a blow up in two weeks, meaning at the very least I haven’t been destroying your teams.

Let’s jump right into it – we have a Friday/Saturday set with 27 probable pitchers owned in less than 50% of ESPN leagues, giving us a deep pool to select from. But are there any arms worth trusting?

Dan Straily (3.5% owned) – No love for my guy? I’ve held Straily since draft day in the league I care about the most (small cash but big bragging rights among friends, including a trophy). While he’s rewarded me with 21 strikeouts in 16.2 innings, he’s posted just one quality start and a 5.94 ERA. Fortunately, a 2.94 FIP, 3.12 xFIP, and 5.25 K:BB ratio all lie below that unsightly ERA, making him a solid add while he remains in the rotation. Even better, Straily draws the Mariners at Safeco Field. The Mariners walk less than almost any other team and also sport just a .298 wOBA against righties. Buy, buy, buy.
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Today is southpaw day apparently, as a trio of lefties get newsed and noted, two of which are named Scott. Is there another left-handed Scott pitcher I should have included instead of Hector Santiago?

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Patrick Corbin was supposed to be a back-end starter. On a team that featured Randall Delgado and Tyler Skaggs in the minors, Corbin was thought to be a temporary solution in the rotation. Someone who wouldn’t embarrass himself until better prospects were ready. But a month into the season, he’s been the Arizona Diamondbacks best starter. Corbin’s 2.97 FIP ranks him 10 among National League starters. He’s already made a case to stick in the team’s rotation once the youngsters are ready. While some regression seems inevitable, Corbin is well on his way to a breakout season.

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