Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

• Using Game-By-Game Fastball Velocity to Influence SP Sit/Start Decisions by Lucas Kelly
• MLB pitching models should incorporate recency, giving us an intriguing ranks update by Eno Sarris
• Baseball’s ‘Hot Hand’ Is Real by Rob Arthur and Greg Matthews

This article won’t take the place of my weekly RotoGraphs article and will not have much analysis. Instead, it will only provide data tables for your own analysis.

Quick Note: The data for this article is through games played on August 21st.

Relievers

Relievers only qualify to be placed in the table below if they have three appearances in the last 25 days. Though the time range is 25 days, the calculation only includes the three most recent appearances. In addition, I have isolated the table to relievers who have displayed an average change of .60 or greater in either direction (increase vs. decrease). We should take reliever velocity changes a little less seriously, due to the short nature of their appearances on any given night. For example, Félix Bautista often shows up on the “Fallers” list, but he throws 100+ often. If one night he comes out and gets an easy three outs without having to throw his fastest fastball, he’s going to appear as a faller. On the flip side, I would imagine he’s starting to get tired at this point in the season, so it’s worth monitoring.

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Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

Just a few notes because I’m on vacation:

• The Rays get an easy homestand next week with the Rockies and Yankees in town. You could argue that the Astros have two easy matchups too with the Red Sox at home (Boston has been atrocious on the road) and then the Tigers on the road.
• After playing in Houston, the Red Sox return home to play the red hot Dodgers, giving them two tough matchups next week. The Giants also have a pair of challenging opponents next week in the Phillies and Braves.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Luis Castillo
• Clayton Kershaw
• Blake Snell
• Zack Wheeler
• Jordan Montgomery
• Bryce Elder
• Paul Blackburn

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• There are a number of teams who have a five-game schedule next week, including the Blue Jays, Cubs, Phillies, Reds, Twins, and White Sox. Those teams might use the two off days to skip a start or reorder their rotations so keep an eye on the scheduled starters next weekend. Pay attention to Philadelphia and Toronto in particular since both of those teams are currently using a six-man rotation, meaning one of their regular starters won’t have a start next week.
• The Twins look like the only team with a pair of easier matchups next week when they take on the Tigers and Pirates at home. The Brewers have the unenviable task of traveling to Los Angeles and Texas to face two of the toughest offenses in baseball. The Angels also have a rough schedule next week, continuing their grueling stretch of opponents with the Rangers and Rays. I wouldn’t recommend starting anyone on the Blue Jays or White Sox either.
• Even though the Rockies have two series at home next week, their matchup ratings look artificially mediocre rather than poor like you’d expect. That’s largely due to them playing on the road recently, bringing their last 14 day wOBA down. Even though the matchup rating for the Diamondbacks and White Sox looks okay, I wouldn’t recommend starting anyone at Coors Field anyway.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Max Fried
• Logan Gilbert
• Yu Darvish
• Max Scherzer
• Bobby Miller
• Miles Mikolas

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• The Braves are entering a particularly tough stretch of their schedule this weekend; they’re about to play 14 games in 13 days without an off day due to a doubleheader against the Mets next weekend. They’re getting Max Fried back from the IL today but they’ll likely need to call up a spot starter next weekend. Luckily both of their matchups next week look pretty easy on paper.
• The Mets have the benefit of an off day before that extra long weekend series against the Braves but both of their matchups look particularly tough next week. They’re also needing to restock their rotation after the departures of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander at the trade deadline.
• The Yankees and Rangers both have some pretty easy matchups next week, though they’ll all come on the road. New York travels to Chicago and Miami while Texas will play in both of the expansive ballparks in the Bay Area. The Red Sox host the Royals and the Tigers next week which both look like easier matchups too, though Kansas City has been playing particularly well recently.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Gerrit Cole
• Spencer Strider
• Pablo López
• Dylan Cease
• Julio Urías
• Zach Eflin
• Freddy Peralta
• Sonny Gray
• Dane Dunning
• Eduardo Rodriguez
• Braxton Garrett
• Kutter Crawford

This season, Blake Snell has the highest walk rate among qualified starters at 13.4%. The league average mark among starters is 7.9%. Yet, Snell has a very solid 2.61 ERA (3.89 xERA) and is allowing only a .197 batting average against his opponents this season. His 1.27 WHIP is actually below the league average (1.31) because of how well he is limiting hits. This is not a new thing for Blake Snell. He has run up his BB% to an even higher peak before:

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Justin Verlander’s tenure in the Big Apple didn’t last very long, as he was shipped back to Houston, where he spent the last four years and a month, during Tuesday’s always chaotic trade deadline. With excellent results once again this season, how might the park switch affect his performance? Let’s consult the park factors to find out.

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Last Wednesday, the Angels acquired starting pitcher Lucas Giolito in a rare week-before-the-deadline splash trade. The 28-year-old broke out in 2019 to finally make good on his former top prospect status, and has been excellent ever since, save for last year’s disappointing results. He has spent the majority of his career with the White Sox, calling Guaranteed Rate Field (GRF, or whatever company paid up for naming rights each year) his home, but will now be heading to a new home park, the more simply named Angel Stadium (AS). How might the change in home park affects his results? Let’s consult the park factors and find out.

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Jordan Montgomery is on the move again! After being dealt last year at the trade deadline from the Yankees to the Cardinals, he has now been sent to the Rangers, who are going all in on a championship this season. How might the change in home park affect his results? Let’s consult the park factors and find out.

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No, not the law enforcement agency whose members don cowboy hats! Yesterday, Max Scherzer was officially traded to the Rangers as perhaps the biggest name to be dealt before this year’s trade deadline. After spending two seasons with the Mets, how might the move to Globe Life Field (GLF) affect his results? Let’s consult the park factors and find out!

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