The Pitches Producing Your Portliest Pains

There are few things worse than a big bust with one of the first starting pitchers you drafted. Not only because of the practical value they return (or rather, don’t return) but often so much of draft strategy depends on who you choose as your SP 1/2. And when they go belly up, so too quickly can your entire team.

With that said, let’s take a peek at the pitch mixes of a trio of pitching heartbreakers who were elite fantasy options in 2022 and were drafted as such in 2023 but have come crashing down to earth for the first third of the season, possibly blowing up our chances for championships along with them. But instead of the overall, let’s focus on the worst of the worst. That is, which of their pitches have most been the Fredo to our formerly Sonny rosters.

We’ll do this by pulling Run Values (per 100 pitches) out from the toilet tank to use as our initial barometer. Using RV/100’s isn’t a perfect way to measure pitch quality but that’s also not exactly what we’re trying to do here. A high RV/100 doesn’t necessarily make a pitch “bad” but it does give a good, general picture of what has been done against it, throwing up some markers to point us toward further analysis when it’s coming from a pitcher who has had previous success with it. Maybe the different results are because the pitch is somehow different because of a change in how it’s moving, spinning, etc; maybe it’s because of how batters are now interacting with it via swing and whiff rates, quality and type of contact, etc.

RV/100 isn’t an answer but it does make some paths for finding them. Before we can judge if things will improve, we first must look for some root causes and hypothesize about what is and isn’t in a pitcher’s control, and the likelihood things will change if it’s the former. With that in mind, let’s go down the list of last year’s biggest earners (according to the Razzball player rater) and pull some of the worst RV/100s from the pitch mixes of those whose value has dropped the most.

Justin Verlander – Curveball

2022 (SP 1): 19% Usage, -1.9 RV/100
2023 (SP 131): 16% Usage, 3.7 RV/100

Remember when Verlander was the #1 SP in fantasy all the way back in 2022? Well, this year, he’s currently behind Mattew Boyd and Nick Pivetta on the Razzball player rater. Ladies and gentlemen, the Mets effect! Hardy-har, just kidding. No, it’s Verlander’s curveball that has really failed him according to Run Value, going from his best pitch in 2022, to his worst in 2023. And it’s not even close. His four-seamer, while down, has still been a negative pitch (-0.6 RV/100), and the -0.9 RV/100 of his slider is roughly the same as it was in 2022.

Let’s check some specs:

Physically it’s been the same pitch; same velocity and spin, same drop and break (which have increased relative to similar pitches but not to its raw movement). But how batters have handled it has been a whole new world. The curveball is getting fewer whiffs but it’s the inability to get called strikes that has really suffered. Verlander’s 24% Call% was not only the highest in his pitch mix last season by nearly double that of second-place but was also 15th among starting pitchers in 2022 (min. 200 thrown). In 2023, it’s 47th out of 81 qualified starters.

This makes sense considering how batters have pounced on curves in the zone,  increasing their zSwing% by two points while a 17% zWhiff in 2022 has dropped to an 11% zWhiff so far this season. And whether in the zone or out, hitters aren’t just making more contact; they’re elevating more and doing more damage. Verlander’s curveball has a 44% Air% against it that is up four points, with a .472 wOBAcon that’s up from a .293 wOBAcon last season.

I won’t pretend to be some sort of mechanics investigator and it’s not like anything about his specs or release points is jumping out. But whether there is a physical tick tipping them off or he’s simply become more predictable with when he deploys it, batters aren’t letting him steal as many strikes and continue to punish him when he brings it in the zone.

Sandy Alcantara – Changeup

2022 (SP 2): 28% Usage, -2.7 RV/100
2023 (SP 110) : 27% Usage, 0.9 RV/100

It’s a rags-to-riches tale, with Alcantara’s changeup going from his most successful pitch (by far) according to RV per 100, to one of his worst. But the physical characteristics look mostly the same as last year, as do how batters have been swinging against it:

Alcantara’s changeup still gets a lot of whiffs, with a 40% Chase% that was already really high (21st of 468 qualified starters in 2022), going even higher to 44%. But what was once the ultimate groundball machine is now getting elevated; his GB% has dropped 20 points, the average launch angle against it going from -5 degrees in 2022 to 7 degrees in 2023.

With that comes an obvious increase in balls in the air, with the changeup also getting hammered around by the gods of BABIP regression:

This is the part where I’d typically bet on the talent and pendulum of batted-ball results swinging back his way but getting knocked around by Oakland in his last start (7 IP, 5 ER) sure does put a wet blanket on any optimism. As long as hitters are able to avoid burning worms by elevating changeups in the bottom of the zone, Alcantara will remain more hittable but at least the bulk innings will cushion the blow.

Dylan Cease – Four-Seam Fastball

2022 (SP 6): 40% Usage, -0.4 RV/100
2023 (SP 88): 41% Usage, 1.1 RV/100

You ride the lightning when rolling with a high K/high walk pitcher and Cease’s lack of command chickens have come home to roost in 2022. You won’t always be able to overwhelm with stuff and if it starts to slip, dominoes can start to fall:

It was the four-seamer that flipped RVs from negative to positive but his slider and knuckle curve get (dis)honorable mentions when it comes to swing and whiff rates, with the slider losing significant amounts of movement on both planes. Combine that less-filthy slider with a heater that has ticked down some in both velocity and rise and the pair has suddenly become not quite as fearful.

And hitters have also become way more patient, forcing Cease to come back in. The chase rate for his four-seam and knuckle curve both dropped by two points but has decreased a substantive seven points for his formerly vaunted slider. On the other hand, the in-zone swing rate has increased by four points on his slider and 11 points for the curve. Huh – it’s almost like hitters know it’s probably better to just wait until Cease brings that premium stuff in the zone, at which point they can go ahead and get to hammering.

Cease will still be a good source of strikeouts going forward (and the changeup positivity is certainly a bright spot) but there is a big difference between a 25% K% and a +30% K% when you also have a +10% BB%. Until something changes, his fantasy value will continue to be WHIP-anchored, with a highly variable ERA. I wish thee luck.