Writer’s Note: Mike Pelfrey ranked 139th on Zach Sanders’ rankings.

You aren’t going to draft Mike Pelfrey. You probably won’t pick him up in season. You may not even use him as a two-start option.

But Pelfrey isn’t as bad as he looked last year, and in fact may have some untapped upside that the Twins could be getting on the cheap after re-signing him to a two-year, $11 million deal.

Pelfrey missed nearly all of the 2012 season after having Tommy John surgery, and rushed back to join a Twins rotation in shambles just a year later. It was obvious he wasn’t right from the get-go, and he said as much himself — though much later on. Read the rest of this entry »

Zack Wheeler‘s major league debut played second fiddle to Matt Harvey’s pre-Tommy John surgery season. Wheeler was a fairly highly-touted prospect since being drafted in 2009 by the Giants and then being traded to the Mets (#49 in 2010, #55 in 2011, #35 in 2012 and #11 in 2013 by Baseball America). He started his first MLB game in the middle of June and his season was combination of good and bad. Going into 2014, walks and injury concerns will be limiting his fantasy value.

The 24-year-old right-handed pitcher didn’t exactly light the world on fire. He had a 7.6 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9. His ERA was respectable at 3.42, but all of his ERA estimators were north of four (4.17 FIP, 4.21 xFIP, 4.40 SIERA). The reason for the disconnect was his 78% LOB%. Here are some comparable 2013 starters with similar walk a strikeout numbers.

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Madison Bumgarner is only 24 years old, but he’s already established himself as a stud starter in fantasy circles. For the second-consecutive year, he was a top-15 starter in standard rotisserie formats and even catapulted himself into the top-10 in 2013 with a stellar 2.77 ERA in 201.1 innings. Owners appear to be valuing him properly, too, as his ADP had him the 13th-highest starter drafted coming into the 2013 season.

When turning our attention to future performance, very little stands out in a negative sense. We can perhaps be concerned about the .251 BABIP from last season, but Bumgarner still compiled a 3.05 FIP, which would still be better than average. Aside from the BABIP caveat, fantasy owners have to covet his consistency. His fastball velocity is firmly planted at 91 mph, his innings totals hover around the 200 mark, his ERA roughly dances between 2.75 and 3.25, his ground-ball percentage is either 46 or 47 percent, and his OSwing% has remained above 30% (and increasing).

Most of the time, pitchers in their early-to-mid 20s are projected to improve in key areas. Perhaps they’re supposed to add velocity or improve their command/control, but the overarching assumption is that young pitchers will take steps forward until their prime, where their performance will then stabilize. While all such generalizations will never be 100-percent factual, Bumgarner appears to buck the trend. He is what he is, and he’s largely been the same pitcher for the past three seasons with some fluctuations in BABIP and HR/FB.

For fantasy owners, such consistency for a starting pitcher is attractive. We’ll never be able to perfectly project year-to-year production, but with guys like Madison Bumgarner, we can at least feel confident in what we’re getting on draft day. His teammate, Matt Cain, was much the same from 2009 to 2012, which is why the right-hander’s abysmal performance in early 2013 was so alarming for many owners.

Bumgarner has been consistent, but it’s notable that his strikeout rate increased from 8.25 K/9 in 2012 to 8.90 K/9 last year. That’s the highest mark of his career, if we don’t include the 10 innings he threw for the Giants in 2009. If the southpaw is going to take the next step forward and become a bona fide ace, I believe it will happen because he begins to miss more bats. It happened last year, and a specific trend makes me wonder if it could continue.

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In my piece on Jordan Zimmermann, I referenced Harry Pavlidis’ wonderful research into changeups. One of the primary findings of his research was that a bigger gap between fastball and changeup velocity generally leads to more whiffs, and you can trade whiffs for a few more grounders if you reduce the gap in velocity. Pavlidis specifically mentioned Chris Archer when detailing his findings, noting that Archer has the big fastball/change velocity gap (11 mph), but he doesn’t have the the big whiff/swing rate that other guys with a big velocity gap have. The explanation was that Archer wasn’t using his change in swinging counts very often, using it early in the count instead.

Pavlidis’ findings were published back in May, so I wanted to see if Archer changed his approach at any point in the 2013 season. Unfortunately, as the chart below will show, Archer continued to use his changeup more early in the count. The chart only shows his usage against left-handers because Archer almost never throws the change to right-handers. Read the rest of this entry »

By almost any measure, Jered Weaver’s best two seasons came in 2010-11, when he threw well over 200 innings and was worth more than five WAR each year. My guess is that most people still think he peaked in 2012, when he was 20-5 with a 2.81 ERA, despite a terrifying decline in his strikeout rate, and if being a “20 game winner” isn’t what it used to be, it still does count for something in fantasy.

Still, headed into 2013, I think most of us were worried about an impending drop-off thanks to lessened velocity and that strikeout decline, and we got it: Weaver’s 2013 was, by most metrics, his worst since at least 2009. Of course, not many of us expected that he’d fracture his left elbow in his second start of the season and miss nearly two months, either, and that’s obviously a factor in his down year.

So then the question becomes, as Weaver heads into his age-31 season: Is he done as an ace? Done entirely? Or is there more there? Read the rest of this entry »

The son’s asleep, and I could be taking a nap or running, both things that would be good for my health. But love of one’s work is also good for your health, and I just realized how much I love breaking down a pitcher. Something about having a full set of pitches, each with their own ups and downs and interactions with the hitters, is very compelling. In Griffin’s case, I automatically just put him in the Big Ole Curveball section: big hump curveball, not great fastball, gives up the homers but has good control. It’s the Ted Lilly wing of baseball.

But, considering I hope to talk to him this year about his spike curve grip, it’s worth checking into his game again after a second strong year. Maybe he’s a little more than just a curveball.

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Since the end of the 2011 season, I have been a fan of Homer Bailey. After that year, I recapped his performance and finished with a command to readers to “go the extra dollar, as 2012 may finally be his year.” My crystal ball was obviously working, as 2012 was indeed Bailey’s breakout year, at least from a surface stats perspective. I then projected his first career sub-4.00 ERA and boldly predicted that he would outperform Ricky Romero.

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C.J. Wilson put together an altogether terrific 2011 season, even garnering a good deal of votes for the Cy Young award that year. He posted a 2.94 ERA with 16 wins and a 23% strikeout rate for the Texas Rangers. After signing a lucrative deal with the Anaheim Angels the following year, his performance was a little disappointing. His control suffered, with his walk rate ballooning to 10.5% and his ERA rose to 3.83 (4.04 FIP) with a 1.34 WHIP. He went from a solid #2 to about a $5-$6 dollar player, getting selected around 125-130 overall.

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Writer’s Note: Hughes ranked 132nd on Zach Sanders’ starting pitching rankings.

It might shock a few people to find out that if not for Ricky Nolasco’s pact, Phil Hughes’ three-year, $24 million deal would be the biggest free agent contract handed out in Twins history.

In fact, I’d almost wager that the statement would induce spit-takes from any Yankees fan with a beverage in hand. Really? For Hughes?

The same Hughes who had an ERA over 5.00 last year? The one who allowed 1.5-plus home runs per 9 over the past two? The guy whose career ERA (4.54) isn’t really that much better than either of his FIPs (4.31, both), leaving one to wonder if his ceiling simply isn’t that high? Read the rest of this entry »

It’s almost as if at some point in 2012, someone attended one of Shelby Miller’s Triple-A outings and yelled, “Hey Shelby, get it together!”

Well, Miller has gotten it together, following up on an excellent 13.2-inning debut in 2012 with 31 starts, 173.1 innings and a 3.06 ERA in 2013. He finished third in National League Rookie of the Year voting and 21st in starting pitcher fantasy value, and only an embarrassment of pitching riches precluded the St. Louis Cardinals from using him in the playoffs.
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