Zack is Wheeling a Couple Concerns
Zack Wheeler‘s major league debut played second fiddle to Matt Harvey’s pre-Tommy John surgery season. Wheeler was a fairly highly-touted prospect since being drafted in 2009 by the Giants and then being traded to the Mets (#49 in 2010, #55 in 2011, #35 in 2012 and #11 in 2013 by Baseball America). He started his first MLB game in the middle of June and his season was combination of good and bad. Going into 2014, walks and injury concerns will be limiting his fantasy value.
The 24-year-old right-handed pitcher didn’t exactly light the world on fire. He had a 7.6 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9. His ERA was respectable at 3.42, but all of his ERA estimators were north of four (4.17 FIP, 4.21 xFIP, 4.40 SIERA). The reason for the disconnect was his 78% LOB%. Here are some comparable 2013 starters with similar walk a strikeout numbers.
Name: K/9, BB/9, ERA
Ryan Dempster: 8.2, 4.2, 4.57
Edinson Volquez: 7.5, 4.1, 5.71
Felix Doubront: 7.7, 3.9, 4.32
Pitchers can survive with a 7.6 K/9, but few with a +4.0 BB/9. Only three qualified starters had a +4.0 BB/9 in 2013 (Jeff Locke in addition to Dempster and Volquez). His minor league walk rate was also high at 4.0 BB/9.
Pitchers can hope to improve their command and Wheeler is one such pitcher. Wheeler said improving his command is his next goal.
“And also repeating my delivery,” he added. “I think that’s the two biggest things. And I think if I repeat my delivery, command will come along with it.”
Saying something and doing it are two different things. Here is a list of rookie pitchers who pitched around 100 innings over the past 10 seasons who had similar numbers to Wheeler.
| Name | Season | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | 2007 | 82.0 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 4.28 | 4.74 | 4.49 |
| Randall Delgado | 2012 | 92.2 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 4.37 | 4.07 | 4.13 |
| Drew Pomeranz | 2012 | 96.2 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 4.93 | 4.81 | 4.49 |
| Danny Duffy | 2011 | 105.1 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 5.64 | 4.82 | 4.53 |
| Bobby Parnell | 2009 | 88.1 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 5.30 | 4.30 | 4.68 |
| Anthony Reyes | 2006 | 85.1 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 5.06 | 5.49 | 4.80 |
| Ricky Romero | 2009 | 178.0 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 4.30 | 4.33 | 4.05 |
| Anthony Bass | 2012 | 97.0 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 4.73 | 4.02 | 4.04 |
| Justin Masterson | 2008 | 88.1 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 3.16 | 4.69 | 4.22 |
| David Price | 2009 | 128.1 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 4.42 | 4.59 | 4.43 |
| Sean Gallagher | 2008 | 115.1 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 5.15 | 4.48 | 4.73 |
| Jason Hammel | 2007 | 85.0 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 6.14 | 5.05 | 4.97 |
| Seth McClung | 2005 | 109.1 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 6.59 | 5.61 | 5.06 |
| Zack Wheeler | 2013 | 100.0 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 3.42 | 4.17 | 4.21 |
Some of the pitchers improved (Price) while others (Pomeranz) struggled. A huge key for Wheeler will be dropping his walk rate to the 3.0 BB/9 range.
Besides the high walk rate, he is an injury concern. The biggest and most obvious injury factor was his shoulder which ended his 2013 season. The injury didn’t require any surgery, but one reason for the shutdown really caused me concern.
“[Being shut down] was a group decision,” Wheeler said. “I’m 20 innings over what I had last year. It’s a little stiff, so we’re just being cautious.”
Well, Zack not really, it was only nine. In 2012, threw 148 between AA and AAA. In 2013, he was at 157 innings between AAA and the majors. Nine innings usually is not supposed to set off an injury, but it did for Wheeler.
Note: I counted his strikeouts instead of his innings pitched. Sorry for not correcting early.
I probably see 200 IP as a max amount of innings pitched.
Signs existed late in the season for an injury. His fastball velocity was trending down with a one mph drop in his last game.
With the velocity, it makes sense to try to find any spring training reports to see if he is in the +94 mph range.
Also, he was having problems finding the strike zone at the season’s end.
A loss of velocity and command are almost certain signs of an injury.
Zack Wheeler was one several shiny Mets pitching prospects. Since getting to the majors, reality is setting in and Wheeler is struggling with walks and injury concerns. Personally, I think he will be over-drafted based on his previous high prospect rankings. In my opinion, his Steamer projection (4.12 ERA, 182 IP, 165 K, and 1.37) seems about right. It could see it go lower on innings pitched and draft accordingly. 2014 will be key for Wheeler, does he progress or regress as a pitcher?
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Nice article, and I agree with your assessment that he will be over-drafted.
It would have been even better if it was proofread before going to press. There were grammatical errors in nearly every paragraph that made it a little difficult to get through.
thank you for editing the article. looks like all of the mistakes were caught between the time I opened the page and posted my comment. good work.
I doubt Wheeler will be over drafted, there are many good starters and young ones available.
But, as a Met fan, the concern for Wheeler is understandable.
I don’t know… is there a way to chart how much he misses the zone by in these walks? He doesn’t have any “wildness” that I see when he pitches, only the problem of being “too fine” and walking guys.
As he matures, that is exactly the sort of thing that most pitchers have to improve upon. Not trying to strike out every batter at the plate and throwing more strikes for contact.
I suppose my point is that he’s not missing the glove by feet, he’s missing it by inches.
He only got shut down Sept 24, missing 1… 2 starts? I don’t think IP is a good judge for him this season, as he also threw 1700 pitches in those 100 innings pitched… Mainly because he was trying to strike everyone out and avoiding contact at all costs. How many pitches did he throw in 2012?
A quick look-up shows that for pitchers over 80ip, he was 5th worst in the league in pitches per inning in 2013.
As he learns to pitch to major league hitters, he’ll walk less guys, throw less pitches, and get farther into the season (IP) with the same number of pitches.
“Well, Zack not really, it was only nine. In 2012, threw 148 between AA and AAA. In 2013, he was at 157 innings between AAA and the majors. Nine innings usually is not supposed to set off an injury, but it did for Wheeler.”
2012: 149 IP
2013: 168.2 IP
Am I missing something?
Nope I counted strikeouts instead of IP. My bad.
While I agree with the command issues, the graph with his velocity isn’t telling of anything. Clearly his velocity varied all season from game to game (going as high as 95.5MPH, and then down to 93MPH in the very next game). The only time his velocity dipped for two straight starts was the last two where he was experiencing discomfort.
Yes there is a potential for an injury as there is with any pitcher. But Wheeler was lacking control from the day he was drafted. It’s decrease coincided with his shoulder soreness and his statement to the media that he was “tired.”
TLDR – Don’t jump to injury yet. He’s a first year pitcher with nearly a 20IP increase and a wild streak.
He is not going to be drafted early in my league, because I plan on keeping him.
Interesting, it would be interesting to take a random sample of pitchers who had shoulder injuries and see if the velocity and command trends you highlight are truly associated with injury?
Also does the velocity data come from each teams ballpark could the bumps and dips in velocity simply be caused by small variances in the stadium radar gun? If so you would need to normalize that out for your argument to hold
On the injury front, the end-of-season stiffness and IP totals are mere trivia compared to other factors. The biggest indicators are his dangerous motion (arm is even later than Prior’s) and the fact that he missed some minor league starts in June with pain in/near his AC joint. Be afraid.
How is his arm late? In videos I’ve watched, it doesn’t look late at all. Can you provide evidence? I’m not attempting to attack your point, I just want to see your point proven. I find this a very interesting topic
Sure! So, of all the mechanics experts I’ve read (scientists, not coaches), the moment they discuss most is when the front foot strikes the ground. At that point, they seem to agree, the arm should already be cocked — bicep facing the sky, elbow bent 90° with hand high. If the arm has not yet reached this position, then the arm itself (as opposed to the rest of the body) must do more of the work of pitching, and the shoulder must rotate more quickly to get the arm through the delivery in time.
If you look at Mark Prior, at foot strike his elbow was up above his hand. Fans of biometrics were not surprised when he shredded his shoulder. Wheeler shows the same problem, only worse. I can’t find any recent video of him, but if you look at 3:56 and 4:45 here you’ll see his front foot fully opened and pointed home. It’s actually off the ground there, but that’s weird, and I don’t think he was still doing that in 2013.
Prior’s health was fine from college through 2003, so who knows, Wheeler may have many good years ahead of him. But his motion is a ticking time bomb.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21072
I’m not a BP subscriber, so I can’t read the part on Wheeler. Can you summarize the highlights? Thanks!
Thank you very much. That actually makes a lot of sense.
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bbSfRk9dJ1k
When I look at his motion here, it doesn’t look like his arm is late. In fact I see his arm bicep up and arm at 90 degree angle.
That’s the clip I linked (I didn’t realize that FanGraphs doesn’t highlight links, so it may have gone unnoticed). I agree: in this clip from 2011, his foot is still in the air as his arm is getting to the cocked position. That’s why I mentioned that he wasn’t doing that in 2013, at least not according to SNY’s slo-mo. Look at 3:56 and 4:45 — that opened front foot was in the air in 2011, but it’s on the ground now. I think. Maybe it varies from pitch to pitch.
This does raise an interesting question about “looking at foot strike” if a given pitcher keeps his foot up at the point where others are putting theirs down. Perhaps Wheeler is something of a special case? I dunno whether that’s good news or bad new on the health front. The only other guy I can think of who leaped forward like that is Billy Wagner, although Lincecum comes close.
“In 2012, threw 148 between AA and AAA. In 2013, he was at 157 innings between AAA and the majors.”
Well, Jeff not really, it WAS actually ~20.
2013: 100 IP in MLB + 68.2 IP in AAA = 168.2 IP total
2012: 116 IP in AA + 33 IP in AAA = 149 IP total
Hard to take an article seriously with so many mistakes.
Also you forgot to mention that Wheeler dealt with blister issues last year. Imagine that.
This is why I wasn’t crazy about Wheeler as a prospect. Guys can succeed by getting hitters to chase in the minors, but it’s harder in the majors. One really interesting fact is that Zack had the third worst first strike percentage among pitchers with 100 innings. Aside from Matt Moore, who actually led the list, the rest of the names in the top 25 are pitchers you would prefer to avoid.
Sure, but you also need to look at the scouting side of it. Wheeler throws an above-average fastball both in terms of velocity and movement and has flashed a plus curveball. He will obviously need to improve his command in order to be very successful but young flamethrowers often take time to put it together.
His first year wasn’t amazing but wasn’t terrible. He flashed his upside but needs to work on his consistency. He’ll have time to figure out. And if he doesn’t, the Mets still have Harvey, Niese, Montero, Syndergaard, etc moving forward.