Today we continue to review preseason ERA projections from THE BAT and Steamer as part of the 2023 projection showdown recap. Yesterday, I reviewed THE BAT’s ERA favorites, so today it’s time to scamper on over to Steamer’s ERA favorites.
Today, we continue reviewing the 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT/THE BAT X against Steamer forecasts in various fantasy categories. We’ll stick with pitchers, but this time move on to ERA, starting with THE BAT’s favorites. After dipping below 4.00 in 2022 for the first time since 2015, leaguewide ERA jumped back above 4.00 this season, so its possible the more optimistic ERA projections were less accurate than the bearish ones. Let’s find out how THE BAT’s favorites performed.
With Jacob deGrom and Walker Buehler coming back from their second Tommy John surgery (TJS), I wanted to go back and look at how pitchers performed after going under the knife a second time. While I had high hopes this study would find some useful adjustments, the results were mixed and probably point to the pitcher being more of the same. Read the rest of this entry »
Yesterday, I flipped my 2023 projection showdown reviews over to the pitchers, starting with THE BAT’s starting pitcher strikeout rate favorites, compared to Steamer’s forecasts. Now let’s review Steamer’s favorites.
After spending nearly all October reviewing the hitter category comparisons as part of the 2023 projection showdown, pitting THE BAT X against Steamer forecasts, it’s time to move on to starting pitchers. Today, I’ll start with strikeout rate and the names of those in which THE BAT (THE BAT X only projects hitters) was more bullish on compared to Steamer.
There are all kinds of ways to measure the effectiveness of a pitch. Pitch Values (pVals) or “Pitch Type Linear Weights” give us a sense of, from the glossary, “…the changes in average run expectancy from one count to another”.
while the changes in run expectancy between an 0-0 count and a 0-1 or 1-0 count are obviously very small, when added up over the course of the season, you can get an idea of which pitch a hitter was best against.
pVals are not predictive and they don’t explain the true talent or raw characteristics of an individual pitch the same way Stuff+ or other pitch models can, but it does tell us what actually happened. Now, imagine that! You can dig into the specifics of pVals on the glossary page but for now, let’s celebrate this season’s greatest pVals.
Part one will look at four-seam fastballs and cutters. Part two (coming soon) will focus on sinkers and splitters.
During the all-star break, I once again polled you on which group of 10 starting pitchers would post a lower ERA during the second half, and which ERA range each group’s aggregate would fall into. Let’s now review the results.
Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.
A few general schedule notes first:
Notable two-start pitchers:
It was in 2021 that John Means threw a no-hitter, striking out 12 batters along the way, matching his career-high single-game strikeout total. Were it not for a runner making it to first base on a dropped third strike, Means would have been the only Orioles pitcher in history to have thrown a perfect game. But, that was all back in 2021 and besides only eight innings pitched in 2022, John Means is back on the mound for the first time since April of that year. Is Means valuable this season, next season, and beyond? Let’s take a look at where he was and where he is currently in an attempt to answer that question.
The clock is ticking down on the regular season which means it’s crunch time for fantasy baseball players. It’s probably too late to affect the outcome of any Ottoneu head-to-head leagues at this point — your roster is what it is during championship week — but points leagues still have two weeks to continue to accumulate points and try and hit their positional and innings caps. Below, I’ve compiled four starters who look like they have easier matchups over these final weeks of the season and who are rostered in less than 60% of Ottoneu leagues. If you’re desperate for innings to reach your cap, these guys might be able to help.
| Player | Team | Opponents | IP | FIP | K-BB% | HR/9 | Pts/IP | Roster% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dean Kremer | BAL | @CLE, BOS | 14 | 4.40 | 4.8% | 0.64 | 3.89 | 52.2% |
| Zach Thompson | STL | MIL, @MIL, CIN | 10 | 4.06 | 11.9% | 0.90 | 4.07 | 27.6% |
| Sawyer Gipson-Long | DET | @OAK, CLE | 10 | 2.26 | 33.3% | 0.90 | 6.91 | 13.8% |
| Pedro Avila | SDP | STL, @CHW | 12.1 | 6.75 | -3.8% | 1.46 | 2.13 | 3.2% |
Dean Kremer shows up in this column again! He had one five-run clunker a week ago but his FIP since the All-Star break has been a tidy 4.27, a full run higher than his ERA. He has continued to keep the ball in the yard while maintaining his acceptable strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s not flashy, but he feels like a safe option over these final two weeks of the season. His schedule lines up to face the Guardians on the road and the Red Sox at home; the first game is a slam dunk and the second looks safe too since Boston’s offense is so horrendous on the road.
Since moving to the starting rotation full-time in mid-August, Zach Thompson has put up a 4.15 ERA backed by a 3.77 FIP in seven starts and another bulk relief appearance. His last start against the Phillies was the first time he had allowed more than three runs in an appearance during this stretch. His strikeout-minus-walk ratio is a solid 18.2% and he hasn’t been hurt by the long ball too much. If you can get him on your roster ahead of his next start on Wednesday, he’d be lined up to make three starts for your fantasy team, twice against the punchless Brewers and once against the Reds at home.
Sawyer Gipson-Long has impressed over his first two starts in the majors, allowing just three runs in 10 innings while striking out 16. His minor league strikeout rates took a big step forward this year and that success has followed him to the big leagues. It’s a super small sample size, but two of his pitches are running whiff rates over 50% and his sinker is earning a whiff on 35% of the swings against it. Those look like legit weapons and Stuff+ is impressed with the underlying physical characteristics of his pitch arsenal. He has starts in Oakland and against the Guardians at home to close out the season and both of those look pretty juicy. Ride the hot hand while you can and hope that he can continue his early success.
If you’re feeling really risky, Pedro Avila could be an option to turn to. Since joining the rotation in mid-August, he’s put up a 5.95 ERA and a 5.29 FIP in four starts and one bulk relief outing. Most of that damage came in a single game against the Dodgers where he allowed seven runs in just 2.2 innings; take that outing away and his ERA drops to 3.71. His next two outings should be against the Cardinals at home and then the White Sox on the road. Neither is a perfect matchup, so I’d recommend turning to him only if you’re completely desperate for innings to hit your cap.