I went back and checked and it’s been more than two months since I’ve written up some under-rostered starters. This column is finally back with a few suggestions for the stretch run. Most Ottoneu head-to-head leagues began their playoffs this week and teams in points leagues will soon need to start really thinking about managing their innings cap. Here are a few starters who have been performing particularly well over the last few weeks who are rostered in less than 60% of all Ottoneu leagues and a look at their remaining schedules.

With Shohei Ohtani unable to pitch for the rest of the season, Griffin Canning is getting another shot to prove he can handle a starter’s workload. He had been working in a piggyback role with Chase Silseth but his last two appearances have been traditional starts. He’s excelled by allowing just three runs in 13 innings, striking out 16. The biggest difference I can discern in those two starts was a greater reliance on his hard changeup. It’s not his best pitch — that would be his slider — but it does help him keep left-handed batters at bay. He’s also got a pretty soft schedule to finish the season too with starts against the Guardians, Tigers, and A’s potentially on the docket.

Dean Kremer has been a frequent recommendation in this column this year and his up-and-down performance has likely kept his roster rate pretty low. He’s actually been on a pretty good run since the All-Star break with just a single start where he’s allowed more than three runs. His strikeout-minus-walk rate has been a fairly mediocre 11.3% during this stretch but he’s managed to keep the ball in the yard which had been his Achilles Heel previously. He has starts lined up against the Angels (today), Cardinals, Astros, Guardians, and potentially the Red Sox depending on how the Orioles shift their rotation with John Means’ impending return. I’d feel comfortable starting him in four of those five games.

Brandon Williamson has seemingly settled into the big leagues after a rough-ish start to his major league career. He’s posted a solid 3.93 FIP in the second half with a good 16.7% strikeout-minus-walk rate; over his last six starts, he’s racked up 39 strikeouts against just six walks. A slight uptick in fastball velocity and a greater reliance on his changeup are likely the drivers behind this recent stretch of good outings. Unfortunately, he was placed on the COVID-19 IL last weekend and his outlook for the rest of the season is a bit up in the air. If he returns quickly, he could potentially start against the Cardinals, Mets, and Pirates to end the season but that’s obviously very tentative at this point.

Paul Blackburn has been the A’s best starter this year (which isn’t actually saying much) and he’s taken a pretty big step forward as far as his underlying metrics go. A new slider has helped him push his strikeout rate up to a career-high. Combined with his very favorable home park, he’s got some sneaky upside on a team that no one is paying attention to. I’d avoid his next two starts against the Rangers and Astros, but he’s got the Mariners (at home), Tigers, and Angels lined up to finish out the season.

Of the five pitchers listed above, I think I’m most interested in adding Javier Assad for this stretch run. He pitched out of the Cubs bullpen for nearly the entire season before getting shifted to the rotation in August. He’s thrived in longer outings and has been one of the key contributors to Chicago’s summer ascent. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his six starts since making the transition out of the ‘pen; his last two starts have been particularly impressive, allowing just a single run in 15 innings with 14 strikeouts and just 3 walks. He has scheduled starts against the Diamondbacks, the Rockies twice (avoid him in Coors Field), the Pirates, and the Brewers to finish out the season.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• The Ottoneu playoffs begin for most head-to-head leagues next week.
• The Blue Jays and White Sox both have a pair of easier matchups next week. That’s great news for Toronto’s starters who have had a bunch of tougher matchups in the recent weeks. Dylan Cease is really the only starter who really benefits from Chicago’s scheduled series against the Royals and Tigers; the rest of their rotation is pretty flawed and would be risky starts no matter who the opponent is.
• The Orioles and Padres both have tough matchups next week. Baltimore is on the road to face the Angels and Red Sox — both teams are extremely difficult to face in their home stadiums — while San Diego faces the red hot Phillies and Astros. Be weary of the Marlins schedule too; they host the Dodgers before traveling to Philadelphia next weekend.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Gerrit Cole
• Corbin Burnes
• Clayton Kershaw
• Logan Webb
• Pablo López
• Justin Steele
• Zach Eflin
• José Berríos
• Cole Ragans
• Merrill Kelly

Here are my rest of season SP rankings. Let’s discuss in the comments if you have further questions about anyone. Obviously standings and situation will change how you manage these pitchers. If you’re chasing, open your window up a bit more… if you’re protecting, don’t hesitate to sit a Top 30 guy v. LAD or ATL (as a random example).

I will still have the Daily SP Chart running, too, so as things change with guys down the stretch, I’ll be able to adjust there.

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Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

• Using Game-By-Game Fastball Velocity to Influence SP Sit/Start Decisions by Lucas Kelly
• MLB pitching models should incorporate recency, giving us an intriguing ranks update by Eno Sarris
• Baseball’s ‘Hot Hand’ Is Real by Rob Arthur and Greg Matthews

This article won’t take the place of my weekly RotoGraphs article and will not have much analysis. Instead, it will only provide data tables for your own analysis.

Quick Note: The data for this article is through games played on August 21st.

Relievers

Relievers only qualify to be placed in the table below if they have three appearances in the last 25 days. Though the time range is 25 days, the calculation only includes the three most recent appearances. In addition, I have isolated the table to relievers who have displayed an average change of .60 or greater in either direction (increase vs. decrease). We should take reliever velocity changes a little less seriously, due to the short nature of their appearances on any given night. For example, Félix Bautista often shows up on the “Fallers” list, but he throws 100+ often. If one night he comes out and gets an easy three outs without having to throw his fastest fastball, he’s going to appear as a faller. On the flip side, I would imagine he’s starting to get tired at this point in the season, so it’s worth monitoring.

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Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

Just a few notes because I’m on vacation:

• The Rays get an easy homestand next week with the Rockies and Yankees in town. You could argue that the Astros have two easy matchups too with the Red Sox at home (Boston has been atrocious on the road) and then the Tigers on the road.
• After playing in Houston, the Red Sox return home to play the red hot Dodgers, giving them two tough matchups next week. The Giants also have a pair of challenging opponents next week in the Phillies and Braves.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Luis Castillo
• Clayton Kershaw
• Blake Snell
• Zack Wheeler
• Jordan Montgomery
• Bryce Elder
• Paul Blackburn

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes first:

• There are a number of teams who have a five-game schedule next week, including the Blue Jays, Cubs, Phillies, Reds, Twins, and White Sox. Those teams might use the two off days to skip a start or reorder their rotations so keep an eye on the scheduled starters next weekend. Pay attention to Philadelphia and Toronto in particular since both of those teams are currently using a six-man rotation, meaning one of their regular starters won’t have a start next week.
• The Twins look like the only team with a pair of easier matchups next week when they take on the Tigers and Pirates at home. The Brewers have the unenviable task of traveling to Los Angeles and Texas to face two of the toughest offenses in baseball. The Angels also have a rough schedule next week, continuing their grueling stretch of opponents with the Rangers and Rays. I wouldn’t recommend starting anyone on the Blue Jays or White Sox either.
• Even though the Rockies have two series at home next week, their matchup ratings look artificially mediocre rather than poor like you’d expect. That’s largely due to them playing on the road recently, bringing their last 14 day wOBA down. Even though the matchup rating for the Diamondbacks and White Sox looks okay, I wouldn’t recommend starting anyone at Coors Field anyway.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Max Fried
• Logan Gilbert
• Yu Darvish
• Max Scherzer
• Bobby Miller
• Miles Mikolas

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• The Braves are entering a particularly tough stretch of their schedule this weekend; they’re about to play 14 games in 13 days without an off day due to a doubleheader against the Mets next weekend. They’re getting Max Fried back from the IL today but they’ll likely need to call up a spot starter next weekend. Luckily both of their matchups next week look pretty easy on paper.
• The Mets have the benefit of an off day before that extra long weekend series against the Braves but both of their matchups look particularly tough next week. They’re also needing to restock their rotation after the departures of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander at the trade deadline.
• The Yankees and Rangers both have some pretty easy matchups next week, though they’ll all come on the road. New York travels to Chicago and Miami while Texas will play in both of the expansive ballparks in the Bay Area. The Red Sox host the Royals and the Tigers next week which both look like easier matchups too, though Kansas City has been playing particularly well recently.

Notable two-start pitchers:

• Gerrit Cole
• Spencer Strider
• Pablo López
• Dylan Cease
• Julio Urías
• Zach Eflin
• Freddy Peralta
• Sonny Gray
• Dane Dunning
• Eduardo Rodriguez
• Braxton Garrett
• Kutter Crawford

This season, Blake Snell has the highest walk rate among qualified starters at 13.4%. The league average mark among starters is 7.9%. Yet, Snell has a very solid 2.61 ERA (3.89 xERA) and is allowing only a .197 batting average against his opponents this season. His 1.27 WHIP is actually below the league average (1.31) because of how well he is limiting hits. This is not a new thing for Blake Snell. He has run up his BB% to an even higher peak before:

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Justin Verlander’s tenure in the Big Apple didn’t last very long, as he was shipped back to Houston, where he spent the last four years and a month, during Tuesday’s always chaotic trade deadline. With excellent results once again this season, how might the park switch affect his performance? Let’s consult the park factors to find out.

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