We know, not only because of Taylor Jungmann, but also from the Brewers’ starter, that not all pitches thrown seldomly with good results will remain as successful when thrown more often. Sometimes pitches are successful because they are rare and unexpected. Any batter can hit an eephus if you tell them it’s coming, but your average eephus gets 7% swinging strikes, mostly because they are surprising.

That said, we have some research on what makes curves and changeups good in terms of movement. So if we combine a pitch with elite results in a small sample with an appraisal of how good the movement and velocity on the pitch, we should be able to say with some confidence that the pitch is good.

In order to find our subjects, I merely set the filter low for pitch types (40 pitches) and looked for starters with elite results on changeups, curves, and sliders. It takes 150 plate appearances for strikeout rate to be stable, so this is probably a small sample even for pitch type ‘strikeout rate’, but we’re scouting here, trying to find the elite before they are actually elite.

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In deeper leagues, especially those of the mono-league variety, everyone is typically always in search of better pitching. Hitting too, of course, but that’s for another article. The problem with deep leagues is that no one has depth. So to fill one hole you will almost assuredly create another one. It’s simply much more difficult to trade when your bench is filled with scrubs, except when it’s categorical, like trading an excess of saves for a starting pitcher. But that doesn’t happen often, so the alternative is to simply aim lower. Trading for a Chris Sale level pitcher is great and all, but it’s not the only way to improve your pitching staff. So here are four names who have all drastically underperformed their SIERA marks so far this year, which means they could likely turn you a profit in a trade if their fortunes turn.

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A month ago, I ridiculed Justin Verlander. He had just come off a start during which he allowed seven earned runs and couldn’t escape the fourth inning. Through his first six 2015 starts, he posted a 6.62 ERA with only 5.82 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9).

Like clockwork, he showed up to his next start in Boston and twirled a gem, throwing eight strong innings but failing to factor into the decision, as the game went into extra innings.

Then he went to Tampa Bay (well, St. Petersburg, but who’s keeping track) and cranked out another eight innings with a whopping 10 strikeouts. The last time he strung together two straight eight-inning starts was almost exactly three years ago — July 15 and 20, 2012. Last time he struck out 10-plus batters? His final start of 2013.

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There’s about a month to go, and maybe you need some Wins—usually the closest category—in your Fantasy league. Or perhaps your counting stats aren’t going anywhere, and your only chance to finish in the money is a sudden and decisive bump in ERA and WHIP. Or maybe, as was the case for us last year, your league has an innings maximum, your adversaries are nudging against it, you’re not, and you’ve got a chance to jump several points in Strikeouts, but you don’t want to torpedo your rate stats to do it. Or possibly you’re a DFS player, and you’re tired of putting Mike Zunino and Starlin Castro in your lineup because the only pitchers you can stand to use are the ones who cost too much and Zunino and Castro are all you can afford.

Yes, most of us need starting pitchers, and there are always plenty of them out there. The established good ones are, of course, happily wedded to their owners, none of whom is you. And the young and glamorous ones—Henry Owens, Aaron Nola, Manny Banuelos—command a Spitzeresque premium that you’re unwilling to pay. The rest of them are lined up, winking at you like the crew of a North Vegas brothel. Most of them are cheap, all right, but some have obviously been irreversibly damaged by life, and your problem with the rest of them is how to avoid infection. Read the rest of this entry »

The pickings feel slim with just one more week of August ahead of us, but fortunately, the fantasy dumpster is always crawling with something of use. Whether you’re looking to outfit your team with a couple of spare parts or just want to plug holes in the aftermath of a firesale, here are two players who can help your cause.

As usual, the players mentioned in this space are better suited for mono leagues, and the ownership percentages are by way of CBS.
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Yesterday I gave you seven NL pitchers who have fared much better at home and as such should be considered in only their home venues. Today I’ve got six five more from the American League. This strategy is best deployed in mixed leagues, but I broke the list up by leagues just because it would’ve been too huge for one piece.

UPPER TIER

Garrett Richards, LAA (2.28 ERA split) – Richards had one of the worst starts of the year when he went to New York and dropped a 0.7 IP/6 ER turd on fantasy rosters everywhere. That start influences his road work a good bit, but even removing it only gives him a 4.00 ERA on the road. He’s had some good starts on the road, but he has consistently been sharp at home. His 2.53 ERA comes with a 0.99 WHIP and 22% K rate compared to 1.48 and 16% on the road. He’s allowed more than 3 ER just once at home and he still fanned 11 in that game (4 ER v. CLE). The Angels have just 19 home games left this season, one of the lower totals in the league, accounting for 45% of their remaining schedule.

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A common misnomer in fantasy baseball is that the rate stats are tough to move late in the season. The idea is that the denominator of innings gets too big to push the needle substantially with just a month and a half left. While it is true that wholesale changes to your ERA or WHIP this late in the season are unlikely barring some kind of Kris Medlen 2012 or Carlos Carrasco 2014 type players in your rotation, the reason you can still make a significant move is because the categories are often tightly bunched so you don’t necessarily need wholesale changes.

For those curious or who don’t remember the particular, Medlen had a 0.92 ERA in 78.7 IP from August 5th through the end of the 2012 season while Carrasco rejoined the Cleveland rotation on August 10th of last year and put together a killer 10-start run with a 1.30 ERA in 69 IP. Those two won people some titles for sure. I’m sure someone will have a similar kind of electric finish to the season, but trying to guess exactly who is a fool’s errand, but there is an avenue to explore for some potential ERA value. Some pitchers are markedly better at home and spot-starting them exclusively in their friendly confines could yield big returns.

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Last week, I discussed the five starting pitchers whose fastball velocity had experienced the greatest surge over the previous two weeks. So today, I’ll check in on the decliners. Since velocity trends upward as the season rolls on, a significant decline in velocity at this time is concerning and could signal a serious issue.

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We’re just about ready to close the book on another season, and as we’re well into the throes of the 2015 stretch run, we need every bit of fantasy ammunition, each spare part we can scrounge from the waiver wire dumpster.

As a reminder, the players recommended in this space are best suited for mono formats, and the ownership percentages are by way of CBS.
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Here’s the saddest thing about velocity changes in pitchers: it looks like you’re screwed either way. Velocity is mostly good for results, but Tommy John pitchers both a) threw harder across pitch types when they were healthy and b) showed velocity loss the year they had surgery. So, either way according to Jon Roegele’s research at least, it could be seen as a negative even if you show up as a velocity gainer on our lists today.

On the other hand, it’s probably better to combine velocity loss with things like a drop in zone rate and an inconsistent release point — things that Josh Kalk put into his injury zone work — and not just rely on velocity loss alone.

That said, a tick on the gun is still worth something in run prevention. And so let’s look at which pitchers are happy or hurting on the radar gun.

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