Fixing Your ERA Via Home-Only Starters (NL)

A common misnomer in fantasy baseball is that the rate stats are tough to move late in the season. The idea is that the denominator of innings gets too big to push the needle substantially with just a month and a half left. While it is true that wholesale changes to your ERA or WHIP this late in the season are unlikely barring some kind of Kris Medlen 2012 or Carlos Carrasco 2014 type players in your rotation, the reason you can still make a significant move is because the categories are often tightly bunched so you don’t necessarily need wholesale changes.

For those curious or who don’t remember the particular, Medlen had a 0.92 ERA in 78.7 IP from August 5th through the end of the 2012 season while Carrasco rejoined the Cleveland rotation on August 10th of last year and put together a killer 10-start run with a 1.30 ERA in 69 IP. Those two won people some titles for sure. I’m sure someone will have a similar kind of electric finish to the season, but trying to guess exactly who is a fool’s errand, but there is an avenue to explore for some potential ERA value. Some pitchers are markedly better at home and spot-starting them exclusively in their friendly confines could yield big returns.

First off, let me state that this a mixed league play. There will be some pitchers on here that you just can’t afford to sit at any time in an AL/NL only league. It’s often not just a fluke to see a guy excel at home and not be able to take that success on the road with regularity. Just Wednesday night MLB Network opened their Mets highlight with a video package around Noah Syndergaard discussing his road woes.

Pitching coach Dan Warthen was quoted discussing how Syndergaard has his routine finely timed before first pitch and the finish of said routine leads right into the game when the Mets are at Citi Field, but on the road he has to go sit for the top of the first after his routine and it seems to be having a negative effect on the 22-year old future ace.

Syndergaard has six starts of fewer than six innings and they’ve all come on the road, including Wednesday’s night start at Baltimore, and it’s not exactly a who’s-who of pitcher-threatening ballparks: at CHC, at ATL, at TB, at SD, at WAS, and of course at BAL. His trip to Wrigley was his MLB debut so we can give him a pass there, but otherwise I’m sure Warthen is onto something. Syndergaard has allowed 21 of his 39 ER on the road. Whatever the issue, it’s there and meanwhile he is absolutely insane at home: 1.82 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 27% K rate, and 8.1 K:BB ratio in 64.3 IP.

Syndergaard’s rotation spot has eight more turns and while he is unlikely to take all of them, four of them are slated to be road games, but I’m not sure I’d employ this home-only method full on with him as the opponents in question are just too good to pass up save the last one: at PHI, at MIA, at ATL, and at CIN. The Reds are ninth in wOBA against righties at home this year.

There is also a chance that the Mets finagle the rotation to set him up with more home starts since they’re well aware of his struggles on the road. In fact, looking at the schedule I don’t think there’s a way to get more than four home starts the rest of the way so their best bet is probably to just skip a road start or two as they have just 18 home games left, tied for third-fewest in the league. So why start off with Syndergaard if I’m not even saying he should be used as a home-only starter the rest of the way?

Well, mainly because of that discussion from MLB Network regarding his struggles. I think it was illuminating and made a ton of sense. We know players generally fair better at home in both pitching and hitting, but it’s always interesting to hear the reasons behind it. Syndergaard’s routine situation might not be the same thing that plagues the other guys we discuss here, but something is keeping them from taking their success on the road.

Most aren’t in Syndergaard’s value tier and thus can afford to be sat when they’re on the road. Their lack of status also means they may be available in your mixed league as a streaming option. Some are relatively high-class arms, though still a cut below Syndergaard and so while it may be tough to entertain the notion of sitting them simply because they’re on the road, it’s likely your best bet at extracting max value from them over the final month and a half.

While I did suggest this method for mixed leagues specifically, I broke the lists into NL and AL so it wasn’t a 5000-word monster.

UPPER TIER

These guys aren’t having banner years, but they’re very widely owned because they are just too talented to cut. However, they have struggled enough that they aren’t above taking a seat on the road in your 10- and 12-team mixed leagues.

Julio Teheran, ATL (3.87 ERA split) – On the whole, Teheran has been one of the biggest pitching disappointments this season. Literally every one of his bad starts has come on the road, though. He has six starts of 5+ ER this year and they’ve all come away from Atlanta. No one else featured on this list has a larger home/road ERA split than Teheran’s 3.87 and that’s with a strong 6 IP/1 ER outing in San Diego on Wednesday afternoon.

Teheran is sporting a 2.44 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 23% K rate in 77.3 IP at home this year which is in line with tremendous home success in 2013-14, too, as he posted a 2.54 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 24% K rate in 208.7 IP. The Braves have 25 home games left, a full 60% of their remaining schedule, and Teheran is setup for five more home starts. These NL East guys (and there are a couple more to be discussed here) get the bonus of that awful division making some of their potential road starts appealing.

Teheran has trips to Philly and Miami currently lined up and both might be worth using in addition to the home starts. He has now been sharp in three of his last four road starts including a 7 IP/2 ER gem at Philadelphia with 7 Ks and 0 BBs. Let your situation dictate whether or not you veer from the home-only method on these guys. (Check out Scott’s piece for even more on Teheran today).

Gio Gonzalez, WAS (2.24 ERA split) – Gonzalez is pacing toward a full-season high in ERA with a 3.86 mark thus far and that’s pumped up by his 4.84 in 70.7 IP on the road. At home, he’s got a 2.60 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and 21% K rate. Those last two figures aren’t terribly special and if you’re in tight races for both ERA and WHIP, then he’s not your guy.

The Nationals have the most home games left in all of baseball with 27, which accounts for 63% of their schedule. Gonzalez should more home than road starts the rest of the way. He hasn’t been only been bad on the road with seven and eight inning scoreless efforts at the Mets and Dodgers, respectively, but six of his seven worst starts (which in this case is simply 4+ ER) have been on the road. I’d be more interested if his strikeout rate wasn’t so blah. He fanned 7+ batters in 11 of 27 starts (41%) last year and he’s done so just five times in 22 starts (23%) so far this year.

Jordan Zimmermann, WAS (2.23 ERA split) – Zimm’s season got off to a wretched start due in large part to a 2.3 IP/7 ER nightmare in Fenway which left a sharp dent in his 4.88 April ERA. He has reeled off a 3.13 ERA in his last 20 starts since the start of May, but his worst starts in that sample all came on the road. I’d be more willing to consider him in those road NL East starts than I would Gonzalez even with a 6 IP/5 ER shellacking at the Mets on his record. That was one bad inning (four hits, five runs in the third) and his other four intra-division road starts were quality starts (only one of which was the 6 IP/3 ER variety).

 

MIDDLE/LOWER TIERS

These guys have a better shot at being free agents in your mixed league and thus could be prime stream options wherein you could leverage their home excellence while avoiding potential pitfalls on the road. They aren’t the flashiest names, but that’s also why they might be available for pickup.

Chris Heston, SF (1.80 ERA split) – Heston’s splits are kind of funky because he has the large ERA discrepancy without the gap in skills that would normally accompany such a split. He strikes out more guys at home, but also walks a couple more netting near-equal 11% and 10% K-BB% rates. And he’s succeeding at home despite a .306 BABIP that has inflated his WHIP to 1.26 (compared to .265 and 1.17 on the road). Some of his best work has come on the road.

Obviously we all remember the no-hitter in Citi Field, but he also had a two-hitter in Houston (1 ER) and 7.3 shutout IP at Petco Park. However, the large majority of his bad work has also come away from home. He’s finished fewer than six innings 10 times this year and seven have come on the road. Three of those have come this month which could be the grind of a full season in the majors starting to take its toll.

He’s reached well beyond his 145.7 IP workload in previous seasons, including 173 last year, but it’s a lot harder at the highest level.  The Giants play 22 of their remaining 42 games at home (52%) and while Heston has shown some quality work on the road, I’d like to enhance my margin for error so I’d be starting him strictly at home the rest of the way.

Charlie Morton, PIT (2.23 ERA split) – It’s hard to maintain a good road ERA when you have a 0.7 IP/9 ER start on your ledger. His base skills are nearly identical home and away with equal 44.3 IP samples, but his only other 5+ ER game came on the road and two of his three failures to complete six innings have come on the road (he’s only made 15 starts so small samples abound with him right now), but in lieu of massive sample this year, we have the fact that he’s long held up at PNC Park with a career 3.28 ERA there in 362 IP. If you’re also chasing strikeouts and it’s an innings cap league, you may want to look elsewhere as Morton has been unable to replicate last year 7.2 K/9 regardless of venue.

Ryan Vogelsong, SF (1.85 ERA split) – This one could be temporary since Mike Leake will eventually be back, but Matt Cain has been bad and they’re in contention so Vogey may well be the better option over Cain. By now you’re noticing a theme among a lot of these guys as they play in very favorable venues on talented teams.

AT&T Park and PNC Park are two of the best pitching venues in baseball. Vogelsong might actually be a sneaky all-venues play depending on your risk tolerance because if lop off his horrific 9.31 ERA in April, he’s got a 2.87 composite ERA with a 2.79/2.93 home/road split. Vogelsong did just rejoin the rotation, but only five of his 22 appearances since the start of may came in relief. He has a 3.09 ERA in 416.3 IP at AT&T Park since returning to the majors in 2011 so if you’re nervous about trusting him everywhere, stick to the home starts.

Tom Koehler, MIA (1.66 ERA split) – We’ll close the NL with yet another East division arm. That spacious park in Miami has been serving Koehler well the last two years with a combined 3.03 ERA in 154.7 IP with a passable 2.6 K:BB ratio. He splits from his NL East brethren in that you don’t even want to start him on the road against the favorable lineups of the division.

He has allowed 5+ ER seven different times this year and five have come against NYM and WAS. It wasn’t quite as bad in his two trips to Atlanta (6 IP/3 ER, 5.3 IP/2 ER), but not something you’re looking to put in the lineup especially if you’re trying to improve your ERA. Koehler has been a full on home-only guy for two straight seasons now. He’ll drop some gems on the road – including a ridiculous 7 IP/1 ER outing in Coors – but the risk is too high to mess with him outside of that giant ballpark in Miami.

AL starters coming tomorrow.





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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cdarcymember
8 years ago

In the book Scorecasting, research suggested that umpires/referees regardless of sport have a subconscious bias toward the home team, and that is the primary cause of home field advantage. In baseball, this manifests itself in the strike zone.