Last 14 Day AL Starting Pitcher Velocity Decliners

Last week, I discussed the five starting pitchers whose fastball velocity had experienced the greatest surge over the previous two weeks. So today, I’ll check in on the decliners. Since velocity trends upward as the season rolls on, a significant decline in velocity at this time is concerning and could signal a serious issue.

Not again! Danny Salazar heads a list of velocity decliners and I’m none too pleased. If you remember, last year his velocity was down early in the season when he was struggling. He was then demoted to the minors and after his recall, his velocity jumped back up. The thing is, Salazar’s average velocity tends to jump around from game to game. Over his first two games of the season, he averaged 96.3 mph with his fastball, but only two games after that, he was at just 93.9 mph. And that turned out to be nothing to worry about, as his velocity picked right back up and averaged 96.4 (his highest season mark) three starts later. So although a velocity drop is always worth monitoring, I don’t think his is anything to be too alarmed about.

It does give me a change to note that Salazar’s ERA finally matches his SIERA. Though his HR/FB rate remains inflated (though certainly not to the degree it had not too long ago), it has been offset by a suppressed .260 BABIP. Who knew an Indians starter would post a BABIP well below the league average?! Earlier in the season I believe his seldom used curve ball was inducing a ton of swinging strikes, making me salivate at what his future could look like if he used it more. Unfortunately, that was just an artifact of the SSS, as his SwStk% on the pitch is now just 7.2%. Whatever. His four-seamer, changeup and slider all remain fantastic and his changeup is one of the best in the game at generating swings and misses.

Hector Santiago’s last 14 day average velocity is being pulled down by his first game during that stretch. He averaged just 88.7 mph, which was his lowest mark of the season. But since, his velocity has fully rebounded and is back to normal. For three straight games he was averaging sub-90 mph, but it was seemingly nothing to worry about. What is something to worry about if you’re an owner is that .256 BABIP and inflated 85.2% LOB%. Neither of those marks are going to be sustained over the rest of the season, which is bad news given his extreme fly ball tendency. What has now been mostly solo shots will suddenly become two or three run shots. He’s an easy sell high call.

In his last start, Sonny Gray averaged just 91.8 mph with his fastball. That was the first time all season he averaged below 92.1 mph with the pitch. It will be interesting to see where his velocity sits in his next starts. It could prove to be nothing or a young pitcher wearing down after throwing 219 innings last year and 167.1 this season. Aside from concerns stemming from his workload, you still have to wonder how long he could go outperforming his SIERA by such a significant margin. Because he has allowed such a low line drive rate, his .245 BABIP isn’t all good fortune and great defense. But still, no ground ball pitcher’s true talent BABIP is that low. His HR/FB rate is also due to rise, and along with an increased BABIP, his LOB% is going to decline. If you’re an owner okay in pitching and in need of a bat, go dangle Gray and get an elite one.

Man, being a Scott Kazmir owner requires constant monitoring and finger crossing. He has pitched largely the same as last year, but has lucked into an ERA nearly a run and a half below his SIERA. The velocity dip is mostly from his first start in the two week time range, but it has increased slightly since. Since he seems to randomly get an ache here and a pain there that always threaten to land him on the disabled list, he makes for a prime sell high to an owner willing to overlook that injury risk.