The Change — Velocity Gainers and Losers

Here’s the saddest thing about velocity changes in pitchers: it looks like you’re screwed either way. Velocity is mostly good for results, but Tommy John pitchers both a) threw harder across pitch types when they were healthy and b) showed velocity loss the year they had surgery. So, either way according to Jon Roegele’s research at least, it could be seen as a negative even if you show up as a velocity gainer on our lists today.

On the other hand, it’s probably better to combine velocity loss with things like a drop in zone rate and an inconsistent release point — things that Josh Kalk put into his injury zone work — and not just rely on velocity loss alone.

That said, a tick on the gun is still worth something in run prevention. And so let’s look at which pitchers are happy or hurting on the radar gun.

First, let’s look at the guys that have lost the most velocity. Better to get the bad news out of the way and end on a high note.

Here are the guys that have lost more than a full tick on the gun. We’ve averaged all of their fastball velocities, in case you’re wondering why these don’t link up with the numbers on their pages exactly.

Player	2014 Velo	Apr/June Velo	Current Week Velo	Velo Difference
Jonathan Broxton	93.4	94.1	90.4	-3.7
Steven Wright	83.6	84.8	82.1	-2.7
Pat Venditte	NULL	84.9	82.2	-2.7
Luis Garcia	94.9	95.3	92.8	-2.5
Elvis Araujo	NULL	93.5	91.5	-2.0
Michael Lorenzen	NULL	94.1	92.1	-2.0
Carson Smith	92.7	92.8	90.9	-1.9
Ike Davis	NULL	87.9	86.1	-1.8
Ryan Kelly	NULL	93.8	92.1	-1.7
Kendry Flores	NULL	91.9	90.2	-1.7
Tyler Thornburg	93.5	92.7	91.0	-1.7
David Phelps	90.1	90.3	88.8	-1.5
Justin De Fratus	91.5	91.8	90.4	-1.4
Aroldis Chapman	100.2	99.6	98.2	-1.4
Chris Heston	89.7	89.4	88.1	-1.3
Jason Motte	91.9	95.2	94.0	-1.2
Michael Tonkin	93.3	94.4	93.2	-1.2
Aaron Brooks	91.8	91.3	90.1	-1.2
James Shields	90.1	91.4	90.3	-1.1
Frank Garces	91.6	91.2	90.1	-1.1
Pat Neshek	90.3	90.3	89.2	-1.1
Hansel Robles	NULL	96.0	94.9	-1.1

Some of the entries on this list are PITCHf/x errors. Luis Garcia, for example, is not down three mph on his fastball. Look at the velocity on his fastball in his last outing and there’s obviously something wrong in there. Independent corroboration on the Jonathan Broxton velocity loss is much more conclusive: dude is losing oomph on his fastball, and that just makes it even less likely that he’s in line for saves even if Trevor Rosenthal gets the yips again.

There are actual, injured pitchers on this list, too. Like Pat Venditte. And pitchers that switched roles, so for Aaron Brooks, Michael Lorenzen, Ike Davis, Steven Wright — we’ll look past some velocity fluctuations in your line because your roles have been up in the air.

Carson Smith really jumps out of the list now as our eyes focus. He’s supposed to be a mid-nineties fireballing closer, not a barely-cracks-91 kind of reliever. He doesn’t have the command to survive there, probably, even if the breaker is plus plus. Even if there is a classification error here (and that’s doubtful, given he doesn’t have a cutter listed on any site and is a reliever with as short mix), you can see from the max and minimums on his fastball velocity that something is not right.

Aroldis Chapman had only one way to go with this velocity, maybe it’s not such a big deal. And Jason Motte has enough injury history that some of this loss seems inevitable.

But the Chris Heston velocity loss is a little worrisome. Part of what made him a little more viable than this minor league numbers suggested was that he’d added muscle and velocity, at least that’s what he told me. The sinker — and for what it’s worth, all of his pitches really — still has more movement than average, but now the margin is tighter. And as a ground-ball pitcher, anyway, his upside is lower and his potential for value in shallower mixed leagues is less obvious.

James Shields losing velocity as he gives up homers seems like a big deal. Fans and owners will just have to hope that it’s just because of a cold gun or a one-week malady, as his velocity chart doesn’t drop off as much as show a one-game problem (which might be a classification problem, since it doesn’t show up everywhere).

To the gainers!

The average pitcher gains more than a tick on the gun between April and when velocity peaks in late July and early August, so we’ll limit this to the pitchers that have gained above and beyond that expected gain. So these guys have all gained more than 1.5 mph since April.

Player	2014 Velo	Apr/June Velo	Current Week Velo	Velo Difference	Diff_from_2014
Kelvin Herrera	96.5	96.4	99.5	3.1	3.0
Bruce Rondon	NULL	95.9	98.7	2.8	NULL
Trevor May	91.8	91.9	94.7	2.8	2.9
Keone Kela	NULL	94.3	97.1	2.8	NULL
Mark Lowe	92.2	94.7	97.3	2.6	5.1
Kyle Crockett	89.1	87.7	90.3	2.6	1.2
Ryan Madson	NULL	93.4	95.9	2.5	NULL
Greg Holland	95.6	93.3	95.8	2.5	0.2
Anthony Bass	93.6	91.9	94.4	2.5	0.8
Justin Grimm	93.9	94.5	96.9	2.4	3.0
Aaron Sanchez	97.0	94.0	96.4	2.4	-0.6
Jake Petricka	94.0	93.1	95.4	2.3	1.4
Wade Davis	94.6	95.5	97.8	2.3	3.2
Jumbo Diaz	96.5	96.0	98.2	2.2	1.7
Adam Warren	94.1	92.1	94.2	2.1	0.1
Jesus Sucre	NULL	87.8	89.8	2.0	NULL
Zach Britton	95.1	95.2	97.2	2.0	2.1
Tommy Hunter	95.7	95.8	97.7	1.9	2.0
Bud Norris	93.2	93.3	95.2	1.9	2.0
Eddie Butler	92.7	93.0	94.9	1.9	2.2
Jonathan Papelbon	90.1	91.0	92.8	1.8	2.7
Brian Matusz	90.6	90.0	91.8	1.8	1.2
Blaine Hardy	87.8	87.8	89.6	1.8	1.8
Daniel Norris	91.0	91.0	92.8	1.8	1.8
J.A. Happ	92.6	91.6	93.3	1.7	0.7
Mat Latos	90.9	91.2	92.9	1.7	2.0
Shawn Kelley	92.1	91.5	93.2	1.7	1.1
Ryan Mattheus	91.6	92.4	94.1	1.7	2.5
Jake Peavy	89.0	88.6	90.2	1.6	1.2
Joaquin Benoit	94.7	93.9	95.5	1.6	0.8
Ross Detwiler	92.9	91.2	92.8	1.6	-0.1
Travis Wood	87.2	89.4	91.0	1.6	3.8
Chase Anderson	90.9	91.0	92.6	1.6	1.7
Yordano Ventura	96.2	95.0	96.6	1.6	0.4
John Danks	87.2	88.5	90.0	1.5	2.8
Hector Rondon	95.1	95.4	96.9	1.5	1.8
Craig Breslow	88.3	89.2	90.7	1.5	2.4
Eric O’Flaherty	89.9	89.7	91.2	1.5	1.3
Mike Pelfrey	90.1	92.9	94.4	1.5	4.3
Chris Tillman	90.8	91.5	93.0	1.5	2.2
Tommy Kahnle	94.0	94.2	95.7	1.5	1.7

Once again we have some role-changers. Trevor May, Aaron Sanchez, Jesus Sucre, Bud Norris, Adam Warren — a whole bunch of guys got the benefit of the added tick you usually get when you move to the pen.

Even within the bullpen, role change could be at the heart of why Bruce Rondon, Hector Rondon, and Tommy Kahnle have added gas. We know that being a rookie in a debut can be worth an extra mile per hour, so maybe being in the mix for the closer’s position can be worth something similar.

A few guys have gotten healthy over the course of the season. At least, that’s been the story behind Mark Lowe, Ryan Madson, Justin Grimm, Eric O’Flaherty, Shawn Kelley as their velocity as returned to previous levels.

You could even say the same thing for Mat Latos, and Chase Anderson. Both of those pitchers went to the disabled list in the middle of a bad run of games, both spent some time getting right, and both saw a velocity boost once they returned. Velocity stabilizes quickly — three starts give you what you need to predict most of their rest-of-season velocity — so this is good news here. Anderson in particular can take heed. His command has been just as good, if not better, than it was last year, and concentration on his two-seamer has led to better ground-ball rates. This velocity uptick might mean the strikeouts come back.

Most of the list is made up of the volatility and small sample size theory that is relief pitching. And then you have Eddie Butler, Yordano Ventura, and Chris Tillman. There isn’t a trend for Tillman, and the last velocity numbers come from a two-inning outing, so the ‘boost’ might just be that his theoretical fifth-inning fastball velocity wasn’t included.

The other two have a clear trend. Yordano Ventura has returned from the minor leagues with a couple ticks of gas, perhaps as he tries to keep his hands around a tenuous major league drop. In the same way, perhaps, Eddie Butler has slowly pushed his fastball velocity over 95. Butler’s sinker got more of the boost than his four-seam, and his sinker is having the best month by whiffs and grounders of his career. Still, Butler’s change hasn’t gotten average whiffs yet, and that was supposed to be his best pitch. He’s still missing something.

Ventura has similarly seen more of the gain in his sinker than his four-seam. But, like with Butler before, velocity has never been his problem before.

Velocity loss and gain can’t be the sole source of your analysis. But for Carson Smith, Chris Heston, and James Shields, the radar gun has been bringing bad news. And really only Chase Anderson has a clear-cut case to be happy about the digits he’s reading.