Well, sorry for no analysis with this final week of starting pitcher values. Eno and I are traveling and I waited as long as I could to try to get this week’s starters. I implemented the changes people recommended last week which is the team(s) the pitcher is facing and the park factor(s). Most of the over-explanation is in last week’s article. Just let us know if there are additional changes you would like to see.
After his first nine Major League starts, Luis Severino has somehow failed to excite any of us RotoGraphers enough to convince us to write an article about him. So here it is, finally. Before the season, Kiley ranked Severino as the Yankees top prospect and the 26th best prospect in baseball. He figured that Severino would get his cup of coffee late this season or first debut in 2016. So pitching his first game on August 5th was probably earlier than most expected.
Matt Boyd (45 CV/50+ FV)
8/28 vs Blue Jays
Game Thoughts
• The 24-year-old lefty was very blahh in the start I saw.
• His fastball was 89-94 mph, straight and thrown high in the zone. It may even have a bit of “rise” to it
• His slider was 77-78 mph with 11-6 break and the only pitch he has which can create ground balls.
• His change was 78-80 mph and straight. It follows the same path as his fastball, but 10 mph slower. It eats up right-handed hitters.
• Finally, he threw a few curves which were at 69-72 mph with 11-6 break
• Boyd’s high fastball and change are going to give up some flyballs. Among starters with 40 IP, he has the 7th lowest GB% at 32.4%. He could end up with home run issues as he is this season with a 2.6 HR/9.
• He throwing away too many pitches which aren’t even near the strike zone. He gets into too many long at bats and ends up working from behind.
He lost a little velo as the game went on never getting over 93 mph on his fastball after the 3rd inning.
Anthony DeSclafani has recorded the highest WAR for all pitchers in September. That’s kind of a big deal. You may recall DeSclafani cruised through the first month of the season, recording a 1.04 ERA across his first 26 innings, but the rest of the season wasn’t quite as kind to him.
A 4.15 xFIP at the time pointed to some good fortune. Indeed, luck caught up to DeSclafani, as he posted ERAs and xFIPs north of 4 for the next three months.
Suddenly, recently, something clicked. Or that’s how it seemed. I noticed some interesting changes to DeSclafani’s pitch arsenal. I found it interesting, and I thought Eno Sarris, being the resident pitch expert, would find it interesting, too.
Turns out Eno was concurrently transcribing his interview with DeSclafani when I contacted him. This isn’t the first time we simultaneously wrote about a particular pitcher throwing a particular pitch; click here and here for our May 20 analysis of Rubby de la Rosa’s improved slider.
You can read Eno’s interview transcript, along with his typically insightful commentary, here. In it, he discusses with DeSclafani how the pitcher’s curveball could replace his change-up as his third pitch. In a preseason preview of DeSclafani, Eno had presciently remarked upon the importance of a substantial third pitch:
There’s no getting around it: it’s late September and fall is officially upon us, and as the seasons give way to one another, we mark the end of the waiver wire column for 2015. It’s been rad surveilling the deep fantasy seas with you, but we’re reminded of that line about all good things, so with an eye on closing the deal in the fantasy playoffs, here are two arms who could help the cause in deep leagues.
As usual, the players listed in this space are better suited for mono leagues, and the ownership percentages are by way of CBS.
Well, I have had making a two-start evaluator on my to-do list for a while. With the help of Jonah Pemstein, the project is done. A problem is its usefulness with only two weeks left in the season. I am going to roll it out anyway and take comments over the next couple of weeks. It will then be ready for full implementation to start next season.
The setup is pretty simple right now.
•Find the games a pitcher is expected to start this upcoming week.
• Determine the starters projected Steamer stats per start.
• Use my Standing Gain Points formula I calculated to start the season to give each pitcher a weekly value. Then rank them by this value.
This is all the data available for now, but running it for the first time I found a few ways to improve it going forward.
• I ran into a coding error for pitchers who have no more projected starts (end of the list like Hudson or Moore) according to Steamer. I am trying to get the depth charts updated to make sure this doesn’t happen in the future.
• On the same note, the stats for pitchers who are swingman (starter and reliever) may be a bit inflated because of the improved reliever rates.
• Wins are just funky but needed to show the value of the chance to pick up two Wins. Ideas?
• The strength of opponent and park factors are not shown or worked in yet. I am working on this portion now but wanted to make the list available before next week.
Sort our leaderboards by second half ERA in descending order in the American League and Jeff Samardzija sits atop the list with the highest mark. And it’s not even close. His 7.43 ERA might have been less of a surprise if it came from another former White Sox starter Hector Noesi, but the guy affectionately known as “Shark” has been bitten by the bad pitching bug. It’s not even like he has pitched well, but has suffered from some poor fortune like teammate Chris Sale (5.00 ERA in 2nd half vs 2.57 SIERA), as his 4.76 SIERA is fifth worst in the second half. Of course, he wasn’t exactly Samardzija like in the first half either, but a 4.02 ERA compiled while pitching in a hitter’s haven of a ball park and with a terrible defensive unit behind him isn’t so bad.
We may not have found a way to measure hanging breaking balls today, but one table in particular caught my eye as being maybe useful for fantasy players. On this table, you’ll see the curveballs with the biggest range in movement with a few outcome stats included. If we sort through this list mentally, it seems possible to find our hanging curveballs.
Remember April?
How crazy was that month? It seems like ages ago at this point.
It was a month during which Chris Sale had a remarkably misleading 5.32 ERA. Sale was at 2.37 through the first three starts of the season’s opening month before the Twins rocked him for 8 ER in just 3 IP of work. That seemed especially preposterous at the time given the opposition, but now the Twins sit just a game out of the second wildcard spot and while it’s always jarring to see Sale rocked, the Twins being the ones who inflicted the damage isn’t as much of a shock as they’ve now done it multiple times to Sale.
There were also several guys pitching out of their minds in April and as we do in every April likely as a response to a winter without baseball, we got overly excited about some of the performances because they were all we had on the 2015 season. Sure, some guys post a mid-2.00s ERA in April and it’s a harbinger of a Cy Young-level season, but most are just having their best month – a month we wouldn’t notice if it had been June or August.
April gets us drunk on the potential of five more months at this new level. Today, we’re going to look back at five surprise pitching standouts from the month and see how things have gone since the fast start.
Nick Martinez, TEX
April: 0.35 ERA in 26 IP
Since: 5.08 ERA in 95.7 IP
I will use player grading on the scouting scales of 20-80. I will use Kiley McDaniels scale he discussed in this article.
| Grade | Hitter | Starting Pitcher | Relief Pitcher | WAR |
| 80 | Top 1-2 | #1 Starter | —- | 7 |
| 75 | Top 2-3 | #1 | —- | 6 |
| 70 | Top 5 | #1/2 | —- | 5 |
| 65 | All-Star | #2/3 | —- | 4 |
| 60 | Plus | #3 | High Closer | 3 |
| 55 | Above Avg | #3/4 | Mid Closer | 2.5 |
| 50 | Avg Regular | #4 | Low CL/High SU | 2 |
| 45 | Platoon/Util | #5 | Low Setup | 1.5 |
| 40 | Bench | Swing/Spot SP | Middle RP | 1 |
| 35 | Emergency Call-Up | Emergency Call-Up | Emergency Call-Up | 0 |
| 30 | *Organizational | *Organizational | *Organizational | -1 |
I will give a value for where I think the pitcher could currently fit in on the average team (CV=current value) and where they could end up (FV=future value). I am sure I will disagree with some grades from others, but I am only looking at one game.
Note: If I say a pitch moves 11-5, it is from the pitcher’s perspective.
Aaron Nola (CV: 60/FV: 70)
8/23/15 vs Marlins
Game Thoughts
• The 22-year-old righty had a slightly funky delivery. He threw from a low 3/4 release across his body, which is a little unusual for a right-handed pitcher. Additionally, he had a little late leg lift which may be a little distracting for the hitter.
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