Never Too Late to Figure it Out ft. Anthony DeSclafani

Anthony DeSclafani has recorded the highest WAR for all pitchers in September. That’s kind of a big deal. You may recall DeSclafani cruised through the first month of the season, recording a 1.04 ERA across his first 26 innings, but the rest of the season wasn’t quite as kind to him.

A 4.15 xFIP at the time pointed to some good fortune. Indeed, luck caught up to DeSclafani, as he posted ERAs and xFIPs north of 4 for the next three months.

Suddenly, recently, something clicked. Or that’s how it seemed. I noticed some interesting changes to DeSclafani’s pitch arsenal. I found it interesting, and I thought Eno Sarris, being the resident pitch expert, would find it interesting, too.

Turns out Eno was concurrently transcribing his interview with DeSclafani when I contacted him. This isn’t the first time we simultaneously wrote about a particular pitcher throwing a particular pitch; click here and here for our May 20 analysis of Rubby de la Rosa’s improved slider.

You can read Eno’s interview transcript, along with his typically insightful commentary, here. In it, he discusses with DeSclafani how the pitcher’s curveball could replace his change-up as his third pitch. In a preseason preview of DeSclafani, Eno had presciently remarked upon the importance of a substantial third pitch:

But part of the issue here is the depth of repertoire. If he had more faith in the curve or the change, he’d have another weapon at his disposal in those moments.

The curve is almost a total unknown. “Just started throwing a curveball at the end of the year last year, in September,” the pitcher admitted. He had thrown it before, but it wasn’t any good. “It was a below-average pitch so I kinda canned it. Fixed the mechanics, and I spike it now.”

So DeSclafani selected the change over the curve to use as his third pitch to begin 2015. He threw it about 11 percent of the time, and the results seemed to validate his arsenal as it was.

Zoom out a bit, however — and include monthly xFIPs as a loose check on luck — and all was not well in the Land of DeSclafani.

Turns out DeSclafani’s lofty strikeout rate (K%) benefited from an abnormally low zone contact rate (Z-Contact%), artificially bolstering his swinging strike rate (SwStr%) and suppressing overall contact (Contact%).

Regardless of cause — Eno knows better than I do why the narrative proceeded the way it did — DeSclafani backed away from his change-up as the season progressed, especially after the regression monster attacked, and began to lean more heavily on his curve.

Yet, as Table 2 depicts, DeSclafani’s arsenal differentiation still didn’t really generate any kind of marked improvement in terms of ERA or xFIP.

Finally, something clicked in September. Ironically, it hasn’t been DeSclafani’s best month — at least, not in terms of outcomes. But his 3.47 ERA in September betrays his 2.25 xFIP, a more reliable indicator of his performance.

DeSclafani has obviously ramped up his curveball usage, but that’s less important than the velocity. He gradually added three miles per hour to his curve during his most recent seven starts. And, like clockwork, the xFIP dropped.

The whole is greater than the parts. DeSclafani’s curve has been barely above average in September and, actually, slightly below average dating back to August. But the pitch does exactly what Eno discussed in March: it plays up his primary pitches, both of which have been more effective lately.

And his plate discipline peripherals, contrary to those in April, provide compelling evidence for legitimate improvement.

Batters are chasing more pitches than ever but not especially so, his chase rate topping out at 35 percent. But they are whiffing on those chased pitches, and they are whiffing hard: hitter O-Contact% plummeted in September, his 50.7-percent mark ranking 5th among all starting pitchers in for the month, sandwiched between Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gerrit Cole, Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez…

Accordingly, the swinging strike rate spiked, and the overall strikeout rate followed. Meanwhile, DeSclafani also cut his walk rate (BB%) by more than half and sustained it for several starts. Somewhat counterintuitively, his declining walk rate coincides with a decrease in zone rate (Zone%); one might think fewer pitches in the zone would not bode well for free passes. But DeSclafani, identifying the newfound effectiveness of his hard curve, has smartly made hitters chase and, alas, miss his offerings, turning twice as many balls into strikes as he did before.

On top of all this, DeSclafani has induced more ground balls and, thus, fewer fly balls during September than any other month in 2015. His infield fly ball rate (IFFB%) is inflated a bit because it’s calculated relative to his very low fly ball rate (FB%), but were we to calculate it as a percentage of all balls in play, it would still be his second-highest of any month this year. And, while we’re recalculating, his true outfield fly ball rate is a minuscule 18.2 percent.

I can’t guarantee this perfect storm of small-sample plate discipline and batted ball goodness will sustain over an extended period of time, especially as hitters adjust. But the results are certainly promising — even August’s 6.9 K/BB is plenty enticing. It’s a little too late to make recommendations, but if you still have something at stake with room to make acquisitions, pick up DeSclafani for his last couple of starts. There’s no reason to think he’ll stop throwing his curve now that he’s found relative success with it, encouraging me to already tab him as a kind of “post-hype” sleeper for next year.