The theory first. By looking at the results on a per-pitch level, we can spot pitchers that have somehow been worse than the sum of their parts to date. Those pitchers, with better sequencing and selection of their existing pitches, or just luck, could be better in the future.

In order to avoid the problems inherent in balls in play data, we’re going to focus on two classes of information that help us the most — ground balls and strikeouts. We’ll z-score every pitch thrown over 100 times last year and sum up the scores. Let’s focus on starters — depth of arsenal matters more for them. And let’s report summed up z-scores as well as average ones per pitch. One tells us how good their collective pitches are, the other how even their arsenal is.

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The Giants’ biennial odd-year failures are well documented. By now, Giants fans know that if it’s an odd-year, they can safely leave town on Columbus Day weekend, volunteer at their NPR affiliate’s fall pledge drive, or spend a weekend up in Santa Rosa picking delightfully fragrant organic Braeburn apples in-season. But odd-year apple seasons bring Brian Sabean neither respite nor rich phytonutrients. For it’s a time when baseball’s longest-tenured GM must roll up his sleeves and construct yet another World Series winner.

This past October, Sabean set his sights on filling a gaping hole in center field and rebuilding a rotation that ranked 25th in WAR. So he signed Denard Span, Johnny Cueto, and Jeff Samardzija to multi-year contracts, undoubtedly improving the team in 2016. And that’s more or less it. Needs addressed.

From a fantasy perspective, there isn’t so much a battle for the final rotation spot as the inevitability that injuries to Matt Cain or others will open the door for Chris Heston and conceivably a few promising young pitchers. With that in mind, we take a look at those pitchers vying for the final spot in the Giants’ rebuilt rotation.

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Two weeks ago, we inaugurated what will likely still be a few more weeks of depth chart discussions in the form of playing time battles. RotoGraphs staff will discuss and assess noteworthy battles for playing time and/or starting gigs for position players and, separately, pitchers. Here, specifically, this author will investigate the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in Both Orange and Los Angeles Counties‘ pitching situations.

As an Orange County native, this is not fun for me to write. It’s embarrassing. As it stands, the Angels project to record the 3rd-worst pitching WAR (wins above replacement) in all of baseball — worst in the American League. What proceeds will likely be more tirade than objective analysis.

The Good Part

The Angels are not short on depth. With at least eight legitimate starters at their disposal, the team likely won’t suffer any embarrassing midseason shortages, especially in light of a woefully shallow farm system.

OK, that’s it. Read the rest of this entry »

The woods decay and fall. Man comes and tills the fields and lies beneath, and after many a summer dies Abe Vigoda. But…we’re still around! We’ve worked hard this winter, pumping irony. We’ve added five pounds of muscle—well, one of us has; the other has added ten pounds of fat—so we’re in the best shape of our lives. This season, we’re going to run more. We’re also going to walk more. Especially, though, we’re going to sit semicomatose in front of our computer screens more, burning up even more irreplaceable hours than we did last year. Yes, once again, we’re taking our two-man submersible deep into the sunless sea of fantasy-relevant stats, and, as before, when we resurface, we’ll show you our specimens.

We’re the Birchwood Brothers, honest-to-God siblings, aggregate age 124 years, lifelong stat geeks and baseball fans, unregenerate fantasy baseball addicts, and spare-time would-be craftspersons of lapidary prose. Like you, in all probability, we’ve got better things to do than this, but that doesn’t mean we do them. Having attained mediocrity in last year’s National Fantasy Baseball Championship Main Event, we’ve decided to seek new challenges. The Main Event uses a snake draft; this year, we’ll be joining the NFBC Mixed-League auction, where we figure to be even more overmatched. As an aperitif, yesterday we started an NFBC slow-draft league—15 teams, no in-season transactions, as much as 8 hours to make each pick, 50 rounds or Ragnarok, whichever comes first. We’ll also be playing in the Bluefish Blitz league, whose rules have so little in common with anyone else’s that we’ll have to prepare for it all over again. And somewhere, we’re going to find a fourth league that suits us, and if we can’t find one we like, we’ll start our own. Read the rest of this entry »

Unhappy about the team’s sub-.500 record in 2015, Diamondbacks General Manager Dave Stewart has resorted to signin’, wheelin’ n’ dealin’ this offseason to seemingly make a run at a playoff spot. The majority of his moves were to bolster a starting pitching staff that ranked 11th in ERA in the National League with a 4.37 mark. Of course, I’m not here to discuss Zack Greinke or Shelby Miller. Rather, let’s talk about the guys who are not a lock to be a part of the team’s rotation and back end of the bullpen.

Rotation

Because I cannot type an entire article without mentioning Zack Greinke’s 2015 performance, I will simply note this — his LOB% ranked as the fifth highest mark ever among qualified starters. That’s running our leaderboard as far back as it goes, choosing 1871, and ending up with 9,358 pitcher seasons. Do not pay top five starter prices. That is all.

Since I’m on a luck will run out campaign (wait, aren’t I always?), I might as well mention Shelby Miller and his massive SIERA-beating ways. Wait until he hits a severe hitter’s park for the first time!

Now I feel better.

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We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

At this point, I think you know what you’re getting yourselves into. We’re here to talk position battles. Max Scherzer’s battle for second best fantasy pitcher is irrelevant to us.

The Rotation

In addition to Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez are locked into starting roles. They aren’t going anywhere. Well, Strasburg and Gonzalez could be traded, but it seems a little late for the club to go that route.

Fourth on the depth chart is Doug Fister impersonator Tanner Roark. Fister, to be clear, is no longer a National (he is, in fact, a free agent). As for Roark, he’s a contact-oriented righty with plus command. In 363 career innings, he has a 3.12 ERA, 3.84 xFIP, 6.14 K/9, and 1.88 BB/9. Last season was his worst – a 4.38 ERA, 5.68 K/9, and 2.11 BB/9. He bounced between the rotation and bullpen which might explain the poor results.

Short of a terrible spring, Roark will be in the rotation. The current front runner to join him is Joe Ross. Tyson Ross‘ younger brother performed just like his sibling. He has a below average quality sinker and a plus slider. Personally, I’m very wary of Ross – I see a swing starter or setup reliever. Mike Podhorzer recently outlined most of my concerns.

Despite my worry, Ross was quite good in his major league debut. So long as he continues to produce, he’ll be a valuable member of the Nationals. In 13 starts and three relief appearances, Ross had a 3.64 ERA, 3.62 xFIP, 8.10 K/9, and 2.47 BB/9. Once he got ahead in the count, he buried hitters under an avalanche of sliders.

In the event of injuries or poor performance, the team has plenty of depth (and a pending minor league contract offer to Bronson Arroyo). Fly ball pitcher Yusmeiro Petit is the swing man. The purveyor of the Invisiball could conceivably push Roark into the bullpen under the right conditions. Because he’s 30 and signed to a one-year contract, the Nationals will undoubtedly give preference to their long term assets.

While he’s not first in line on the call sheet, Lucas Giolito is on the cusp of the majors. The Nationals top prospect looks to be an ace in the making. He’s made just eight starts in the upper minors (3.80 ERA, 8.56 K/9, 3.23 BB/9 at Double-A). He’ll need to prove himself again at Double- and Triple-A before he shoves the door wide open. Since the Nationals are contending, we’ll probably see Giolito at some point this season.

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He may have been far from the main piece in the Cole Hamels trade, but the Phillies may have found a diamond in the rough when they acquired Jerad Eickhoff from the Rangers last summer.
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Last week inaugurated what will likely be several weeks of depth chart discussions in the form of playing time battles. RotoGraphs staff will discuss and assess noteworthy battles for playing time and/or starting gigs for position players and, separately, pitchers. Here, specifically, this author will investigate the San Diego Padres‘ pitching situations.

#4 and #5 Starters

Behind James Shields, Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner, the Padres’ rotation looks feeble. At least six arms could see a handful of starts — and, to avoid burying the lede, few warrant attention in standard mixed leagues. But, alas, playing time battles are playing time battles. In order according to FanGraphs’ depth charts:

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Through the first half of last season, the A’s ranked 2nd in baseball in starting pitcher’s ERA. They were also tied for 1st in HR allowed per 9 and second in the AL in GB%. Offensively, the A’s were 5th in the AL in runs scored, entering the All-Star break with a +44 run differential. And a -9 win differential. So what happened?

Well, they were terrible defensively. They ranked 29th in Defensive Runs Above Average and UZR and led the AL in unearned runs. With catcher Stephen Vogt rating as 2015’s 8th worst pitch framer, it’s a wonder the rotation fared as well as it did. And the bullpen? Is a -0.1 WAR something you might be interested in? Me neither.  

Out of contention by the trade deadline, Billy Beane traded Scott Kazmir, Ryan Cook, Tyler Clippard, and Eric O’Flaherty. Then in the offseason, he exiled Jesse Chavez to Canada, Evan Scribner to the Mariners, Drew Pomeranz to the Padres, and lost Dan Otero on waivers and Edward Mujica to free agency. Caught all that? 9 pitchers, most of whom started 2015 in the East Bay, gone.

But you know the good news? The A’s never tear it down completely. In rebuilding his pitching staff, Beane assembled an intriguing posse of youngsters and Methuselastic veterans you might not recognize if you were sitting next to one on BART. Your league mates definitely won’t either.

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Starting Rotation

The top of the Royals rotation is set with Ian Kennedy, Yordano Ventura and Edinson Volquez taking the first three spots. After those two, the rotation gets a little fuzzy for the 4th and 5th spots. Unless an injury happens to one of the first three, I think five other pitchers may cycle into these final two spots: Kris Medlen, Danny Duffy, Chris Young, Kyle Zimmer and Miguel Almonte. I listed them in the order I think they will get a chance to start. Here is my take on how I think it will shake out for each pitcher.

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