The Pitcher vs. The Thrower: A Garrett Richards Tale

In March, Jeff Sullivan wrote a fantastic article about Garrett Richards. Jeff praised his increased strikeout rate from 2014, but more importantly, he pointed out the biggest key to Richards’ improvement: Hitters could no longer pull the ball in the air against him. In 2014, “Richards started to make sense. He’s become one of the easiest pitchers in baseball to explain.”

Unfortunately, that progression vanished completely in 2015, and Richards reverted back into a mystery. He’s back to being one of those frustrating pitchers who possesses great stuff, but can’t seem to put it all together. He’s the kind of guy who passes the eye test, but doesn’t produce the numbers to match it. He just seems like he should be better than he is. So, why isn’t he?

The home-run ball isn’t a huge problem in general for Richards in his professional career. Throughout his six pro seasons, he’s been a little better than league-average in that department, from A-ball to the majors. However, in 2014, he posted a truly elite 0.27 HR/9 rate, and opposing hitters slugged a league-worst (or best, if you’re Richards) .261 against him.

In the article linked above, Sullivan described how Richards’ improved command — paired with a spike in velocity — allowed him to induce weak fly-ball contact. He possesses a sinker and a cutting four-seamer, and his ability to control them rendered both lefties and righties incapable of pulling the ball with authority. No surprise, really — it’s pretty tough to square up a mid-to-high 90’s heater that’s moving away from you.

This year, that improved fastball command was nowhere to be found, and hitters were once again able to get around on Richards’ hard stuff. Lefties hit Richards a bit better this year, but his regression was more severe against right-handers. In 2014, he feasted on same-handed pitching by pounding the corner down and away with his heater:

Richards FB location 2014 vs R

The results speak for themselves, as Richards simply did not allow opposing hitters to generate any power to the pull field:

Unfortunately, this year saw Richards leave way too many fastballs in the worst possible location:

Richards FB location 2015 vs R

As for the results? Well…

In 2014, Richards allowed right-handed batters just four extra-base hits to left field — all doubles. This year, he served up ten homers and ten doubles.

In addition to his fastball, Richards’ slider was less effective than last year according to PITCHf/x, but the pitch had nearly identical horizontal and vertical movement, velocity, and location as last season. Any loss of slider effectiveness seems to be a simple result of not being able to set it up with the heater.

I was as surprised as anyone by Richards’ breakout 2014, and I say this because I’ve been watching him pitch since 2007. As a teenager at The University of Oklahoma, he didn’t have his wipeout slider, and he also didn’t have command of anything. Like most players that age, Richards was far more of a thrower than a pitcher, but at least he did throw mighty hard.

Far too often in 2015, Richards resembled that thrower he was in college. There are obvious differences – such as seven seasons of professional development – but he had games where his fastball command brought back memories of the guy who put up this ugly stat line in his one season as a collegiate starter:

Richards college

It wasn’t just home runs that did Richards in this season. He lost more than a strikeout per nine from last year and his walk rate jumped from 2.72 BB/9 to 3.30. He tacked more than a run onto his ERA, but still managed a solid 3.65.

2014 was probably the peak for Richards the pitcher but – as 2015 proved – even when Richards the thrower rears his ugly head, his raw stuff is still good enough to get major-league hitters out. It will be interesting to see if he can ever put it all together again and have another season like 2014, but it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if he doesn’t.

As for fantasy, let someone else roll those dice in 2016. I’m not betting on a return to 2014, and neither should you.





Scott Strandberg started writing for Rotographs in 2013. He works in small business consultation, and he also writes A&E columns for The Norman Transcript newspaper. Scott lives in Seattle, WA.

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Phil Swift Here
8 years ago

Coming back from a torn patellar tendon may be the explanation here. That’s a nasty injury requiring a good year of rehab. Let’s see what he does in 2016 before passing judgment. I believe it was Bill James who said that once you consistently show a skill, you own it. So until he shows otherwise, Richards will be a sleeper pick for me next season.

Ferga
8 years ago

I agree, he had a decent season after a major injury and he missed spring training etc. Tough to know if he regressed a bit or actually was rehabbing through the season.