Hey, I’m naming my Wednesday piece now! It’s going to be called “Tipping Pitches”. It’s just a snazzy new name, it doesn’t mean I’m only going to be writing about Eduardo Rodriguez every week. But it will be my pitching-focused column whereas my other offerings at RG won’t necessarily always revolve around the mound. 

Whenever we see offseason movement for pitchers, we immediately analyze the park and league fit for the pitcher in question. And that’s understandable, those are big factors in how he might perform for the upcoming season, but one aspect that doesn’t always get its due as a factor is defense. It gets more attention when a pitcher joins a team with a good defensive reputation, but when a team adds a plus defender, I don’t think it’s always factored in for the pitchers on that team. Three pitchers stand out as major beneficiaries of defensive moves this offseason. Two saw their team add a defensive stud who should impact their bottom line while the third joined a team with a great defensive crew that is tailored to his game.

Garrett Richards gets Andrelton Simmons at SS

Richards probably doesn’t get enough credit for his 2015. He came in off the knee injury that cut his breakout 2014 short and was expected to miss upwards of a month at the outset. Instead, he didn’t miss any time and took 32 solid turns through the rotation. He wasn’t nearly as good as 2014, but regression was expected even with full health so the fact that the knee was likely playing a role at least early in the season should get him some benefit of the doubt. He still managed an above average 207.3 innings of work, a career-high.

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Since we share Oscar Wilde’s view that moderation is a fatal thing, and believe that Moore (Ray Moore, 1957, 11 Wins, 3.90 ERA, 1.355 WHIP) is Moore (Matt Moore, 2012, 11 Wins, 3.81 ERA, 1.348 WHIP), more or less, we filled out our already-crammed dance card on Sunday with an on-line auction in the Bluefish Blitz League. The BBL features among its owners some well-known Fantasy figures, and provides motive, means, and opportunity to be predatory if that’s your weltanschauung. It also has rules sufficiently different from anyone else’s to make preparation-from-scratch essential, even if you’ve already done so many drafts, auctions, and blogs that you can’t remember which leagues you’re in, much less which players you’ve got in each of them.

The rules: 20 teams, each with $250 in play money to spend on 9 hitters (i.e. a full lineup, including a UT guy), 11 pitchers, and a 5-man bench that can include pitchers if you’re so inclined. 5×5 with a couple of wrinkles on the hitting side: OBP, SLG, and NSB instead of BA, HR, and SB. Draconian innings-pitched limits at both ends (1000 IP minimum, 1458 [i.e. 162×9] maximum), and no more than 162 games played per each hitting position. Daily transactions of every conceivable variety are not only permitted but encouraged and applauded. The concept, obviously, is to approximate “real” major league rosters and team management.

It was, in some ways, gratifying to discover that these guys (or we guys, if you care to flatter us) don’t know anything more than you (or we, if you care not to flatter us) do if you’ve been paying attention. At about noon on Sunday, Ken Giles went for $19 in this league, while Luke Gregerson went for $6. At about 9 on Monday morning, Houston manager A.J. Hinch announced that Gregerson would be his closer. Even granting that Giles probably takes over as soon as Gregerson blows a save, we imagine that those prices would have been nearly transposed if the draft had been held a day later or Hinch had less of a flair for drama.

We didn’t set out to be contrarian in this league, but as it developed, we were. We decided that (1) the league rules made platooning and DFS-style day-to-day matchups a possibility for hitters, and (2) our unwholesome in-season obsessive attention to detail would enable us to optimize our hitting while not running afoul of the 162-game limit. We accordingly decided to pay extra for our bench players, and not to put any pitchers on our bench. We also decided to go with 6 starting pitchers. We thought that many teams would pursue this strategy, but only one did, at least in its pure form (the strategy, we mean, not the team).

Here’s our roster, listed in the order in which we acquired it. For a bit of context, Trout went for $59, Harper for $56, Kershaw for $52, and Goldschmidt for $50…

Drew Smyly, $15
Stephen Vogt, $10
Xavier Cedeno, $3
Chris Davis, $34
Corey Kluber $31
Cody Allen $24
Kole Calhoun $10
Ben Revere $13
Mark Melancon $21
Jose Quintana $11
Elvis Andrus $10
Randal Grichuk $8
Danny Valencia $2
Joe Ross $7
Trevor Plouffe $5
Pedro Alvarez $11
Brock Holt $3
Stephen Piscotty $5
Welington Castillo $2
Jonathan Schoop $7
Chris Owings $5
Zach McAllister $3
Matt Moore $7
Nate Jones $1

…which, now that we type it out in the merciless daylight after a night spent with this squad, doesn’t look as good to us as it looked in the smoky fluorescence of the tavern at 2 Monday morning while the bartender emptied the till and set the chairs upside-down on the tables. So we’ll see.

But one thing we did in this league may be of use to you and us down the road. A month ago, we identified some starting pitchers who qualified for the Holy Trinity and the Holy Quadrinity—two different approaches to granular stats designed to identify guys who pitched better than it might have looked like they did last season. With relief pitchers at something of a premium in the BBL, we took the same approaches to relievers who threw more than 30 innings in relief last year. Eight guys qualifed for both the Trinity and the Quadrinity. Two—uh, three–are closers (Zach Britton, Hector Rondon, and Gregerson). Two others are injured, and not in ways that bode especially well for their return (Carson Smith, Aaron Loup). The other three are Will Harris (well-known as a capable seventh-inning guy, and orphaned, a bit surprisingly, in the BBL, though we might have taken him at the end if Jones hadn’t been available); Xavier Cedeno (whom we got, contentedly, for $3, and who is a candidate to close some games for Tampa Bay); and Sean Gilmartin.

Gilmartin’s the really interesting one. He’s a former first-rounder who kicked around for a while as a starter until the Mets took him as a Rule 5 pick in December 2014. He was superb in long relief last season, and, though he’s left-handed, actually did better against right-handed hitters. The Mets optioned him to AAA a few days ago, evidently with the idea of making him a starter again. And indeed, it’s not clear why a left-hander who can get righties out and has a tepid fastball but a four-pitch repertoire wouldn’t fit in as a starter. Of course, that’s what the Braves and Twins thought when they had him. We nonetheless predict that the reconversion will work, and that he will prove to be a better pitcher than (former Rule Fiver) Logan Verrett, who’s his competition for the sixth-starter role. If, for whatever reason, Gilmartin gets summoned to start a game or games this season, we’re going to grab him, unless one of the bluefish grabs him first.

Yesterday, I unveiled my bold hitter league leaders, with the acknowledgement that these are a lot tougher to hit than the generic Bold Predictions. The pitching side of the ledger is a bit easier, but still difficult, of course. Given that there is more luck and factors outside the specific pitcher’s control involved that shape his surface results, it’s more conceivable that a non-favorite leads the league in a category.

In an effort to avoid double dipping and naming the same pitcher in two categories, there may have been a slightly better bold choice for a particular category. I opted to come up with different names in each. Also keep in mind that it is difficult to balance boldness with realistic. I eliminated many names that I didn’t think were bold, but maybe you do. I also eliminated names that have no real chance at leading in the category.

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Let’s not get worried about Madison Bumgarner because he walked five guys. He’s done that twice before and one of them was his first start of the season in 2013. That, you can pencil into a guy feeling his way back into his mechanics. That’s fine.

Let’s not get worried about Madison Bumgarner because he gave up two homers. He’s done *that* 23 times. Even the fact that it was Scooter Gennett and Jonathan Villar that homered shouldn’t bother us too much. His last official start was one in which he gave up three homers — one each to Enrique Hernandez, A.J. Ellis, and Justin Ruggiano. So sometimes the bottom half of the league can touch one of baseball’s best.

So let’s not really worry about Madison Bumgarner because of his results yesterday. Let’s worry about Madison Bumgarner because of his process yesterday.

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About four years ago, Matt Swartz helped me find that strikeout and walk rates posted during spring training for starting pitchers do have some predictive value. It’s very small, of course, but it’s there, and using the data improved the pre-season projection. The findings were validated when Dan Rosenheck completed an exhaustive study and discovered the same thing a year ago. It’s not the surface stats that matter, which we knew, but the underlying skill metrics, like strikeout and walk rates, that hold some value. It’s not much value, but it’s not nothing like some of us may have thought.

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Yesterday, a trio of fifth starters were announced. They are all worthy of different levels of excitement, but Vincent Velasquez, Aaron Sanchez, and Nate Karns all won jobs, and now we’re all scrambling to re-rank them based on this new information. Here’s the thing, though — don’t move them very far.

The announcement is nice, because it’s like the closer’s role. You either have the fifth starter’s spot, or you don’t, and if you don’t, the innings are hard to find. But you might be surprised how little those announcements may have meant.

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Starting pitching used to be the calling card of the Tigers with Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, Anibal Sanchez, and Rick Porcello giving them one of the most potent quintets in the game. Fister was traded to the Nationals with Drew Smyly next in line, but then they upgraded him to David Price for the 2014 stretch run. Then Scherzer went to the Nationals, Porcello was traded to the Red Sox, Verlander fell on hard times, and Sanchez’s health went south again and all of a sudden it was Price & pray in 2015. Instead of running out the rest of his final year, they traded him to the Blue Jays last year and sealed a last-place finish in the AL Central, their worst finish since 2008.

The Price trade helped the Tigers retool instead of rebuild thanks to the acquisitions of Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd. Meanwhile, Verlander got his groove back (2.27 ERA in final 99.3 IP), and the Nationals once again figured prominently in Detroit’s pitching plans – this time with an acquisition from them as Jordan Zimmermann inked a 5-year, $110-million dollar deal this offseason. Verlander and Zimmermann are locked in as the workhorses atop the rotation and the Tigers will need 400+ innings from them to compete this year. Sanchez got a late start in Spring Training due to triceps inflammation, but after one solid start, there is already talk of him pitching game two in Miami to open the season. So the top three spots are set (as long as Sanchez stays upright, at least).

That leaves four candidates for the remaining two spots – Norris, Boyd, Shane Greene, and the less-heralded offseason signing: Mike Pelfrey (2 yrs, $16-mil). Pelfrey has the four-spot, but I still can’t muster a case to draft him and his 13% career strikeout rate. He has looked good in Spring Training (and not just the numbers, but I saw him pitch well on my TV), but it’s still a no. Let’s focus on the fifth-starter candidates.

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You’re not sick of reading about my Picks and Pans yet, right? Of course not, you love them! We’re winding down the series and today we move along to the starting pitchers. As you no doubt have argued in the comments, my valuations take innings into consideration. It has to. We’re valuing the player’s contributions to our team. This is from a strict dollar value perspective. This is different than where I might suggest drafting the player in a snake draft, as I’d be more willing to take a lower ranked pitcher projected for better ratios than a higher ranked one with worse ratios, but more innings.

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Julio Teheran wasn’t great last year, especially from a fantasy standpoint. His 4.04 ERA and 1.31 WHIP were very different from the 3.03/1.12 he put together in 2013-14. He looked like an emerging star on the mound and was treated as such, going 20th among starting pitchers in 2015 drafts. He finished just 63rd on ESPN’s player rater and now has many running for the hills, but I’m not sure it’s all doom-and-gloom for the 25-year old righty.

First off, he stayed healthy and took his 33 turns in the rotation. Additionally, I think his struggles are overstated and primarily confined to a handful of hideous starts as opposed to sustained mediocrity (or worse). Bill James’ Game Score stat is hardly perfect, but it gives us a general idea of how a pitcher fared in a given start. You want at least a 50 score and anything below a 40 is awful.

He had as many 40 or worse Game Scores in 2015 as he did in 2013 and 2014 combined. Meanwhile, he was in line with his output of 50+ Game Scores. To put it another way, Teheran’s five starts of 6+ ER were tied for the third-most with a large group. It should come as no surprise then, that as he cut down the implosion outings, he looked more and more like himself. From July on, he posted a 3.23 ERA in 106 IP with just one of those 6+ ER outings on his ledger (an 8 ER demolition at the hands of the Yankees).

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Time to update the pitching ranks, as we’ve received more information and depth charts are starting to sort themselves out.

There are velocity changes to report. Jeff Samardzija hasn’t averaged 93 in a start yet, so that’s not good. Scott Kazmir is under 90 for a couple starts now, also not good — but it turns out those were cutters! So maybe he’s fine. Doug Fister is up! Around 90. Jacob deGrom was down to 92 in the last start, but was fine the one before, so that’s less worrisome. Garrett Richards is up! He was always up. So is Dylan Bundy though. He probably doesn’t have a starting role, though. Cody Anderson is up and now he looks like Matt Harvey. Adam Conley is up and I still like him, now a little more.

There are injuries of course! The Dodgers have most of them, but even the guys coming up behind are injured, and the group at the back isn’t very exciting to begin with. Matt Cain’s injury might push him back enough to give Chris Heston a shot to start the season at least. Or maybe not. Surely there will be a few more before spring ends.

And then there are depth chart movements that have already been made. Trevor May is a reliever. Erik Johnson was sent down. Brandon Maurer is a reliever, meaning Colin Rea and Drew Pomeranz and Brandon Morrow are fighting for two spots.

Throw them all in the blender and update your ranks. Eno’s Ranks, 2.0.

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