Rays Playing Time Battles: Pitchers

We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

Things did not go well for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2015, but it would be difficult to pin too much of that on their pitching staff. With a 3.74 ERA and 3.91 FIP, the Rays’ pitchers weren’t exactly world-beaters, but they weren’t the team’s biggest problem, either. They ranked in the middle third of the league in pitcher wins above replacement, walk rate, ERA, and FIP-. They just kind of were.

The issue, in some cases, was timing. The Rays ranked sixth in strikeout percentage as a whole, but their rotation was much better (fourth) in that regard than a bullpen lighter on gas. That bullpen posted 87 meltdowns, sixth-highest in baseball, which served to squander a bit of what a fringe-top-10 rotation was able to manage, and that bullpen lost lefty Jake McGee, to boot. That could be an iffy area again in 2016, one the .500-bound Rays didn’t see fit to invest a ton in.

The rotation, by the way, only had to go nine-deep a year ago. If it can stay relatively healthy once again, even getting a late-season reinforcement back from the disabled list, the Rays could have one of the better cost-effective rotations in baseball.

Reasons to Smyle

For as much as the Rays’ outlook isn’t as exceedingly bright as it was for most of the last several years, their fanbase still gets to watch Chris Archer throw every five days. That’s pretty awesome, because not only is Archer an eminently likable personality and a terrific value, he’s also going to establish himself as an ace this season, if he hasn’t already. A 3.23 ERA, a 2.90 FIP, and nearly a four-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio are all worth gushing about. It’s also worth grabbing him just outside of the top-15 arms on draft day, firmly in that second wave of aces.

He’ll be followed by another righty coming off of a breakout year, as Jake Odorizzi also turned in quite the 2015. While his strikeouts declined some from his first full season, so did his walk rate, and he kept the ball on the ground a little but more, giving up weaker contact in the process. Considering the strikeout rate also came with a slight uptick in swinging-strike rate, last year’s 3.96 xFIP may undersell his potential some – he’s a decent bet to post a 3.50 ERA once again, with eight-plus strikeouts per-nine innings. He’s not an ace like Archer, but he’ll go around the 35-marker at the position, a nice spot for a No. 2.

The Rays will probably sneak a third arm in the top-50, too, with Drew Smyly back and ready for something close to a full season. I mean, maybe. Smyly’s only cracked 100 innings once at the major-league level, throwing 153 in 2014 and then starting 2015 on the DL. It’s possible that the Rays will look to limit the 26-year-old’s workload some this year, and they have the luxury of doing so with some long bullpen arms. While that would stand to limit his counting stats, cutting him off around six innings per-start might be the best way for fantasy owners to get six months of utility out of him. When he’s on the hill, he’s a terrific arm, another bet to meet or best a 3.50 ERA and strike out a batter per-inning.

Moore decent options

The two names that fill out the Rays’ rotation are a bit polarizing. That’s fine, because each is worth a deeper flier, and whichever doesn’t perform can make way for Alex Cobb at some point during the year. Cobb missed all of 2015 due to Tommy John surgery and was playing catch from 120 feet as spring training opened, putting him on track for a mid-season return. A potential late-July return is enough that Cobb is worth stashing on the DL in most formats – it’s tough to bank on too many innings and a complete return to form right away, but assuming no setbacks, he’d probably return to 7.5 strikeouts per-nine and, at worst, a 3.50 ERA projection. That’s a nice late-season shot in the arm.

The Moore familiar of the interim names belongs to Matt, who feels like he was a fantasy sleeper back in 2005 at this point. In reality, he burst on the scene in 2011 and has never quite lived up to the once-lofty expectations. He’s had solid ERAs and has been a useful fantasy asset, to be clear, but he’s never again touched a strikeout per-inning as hoped, and his peripherals have always lagged thanks to poor control. He fixed that control to a degree coming off of Tommy John surgery last season, and yet despite his velocity and swinging-strike rates also coming back, he struggled to strike batters out. If that’s the new Moore, there’s not much room for optimism, but there’s also a chance his 5.43 ERA in 63 innings has him underpriced. Just inside the top-100, he’s probably a worthwhile flier you can cut bait on quickly, as the Rays might, potentially shifting him to the bullpen if he struggles.

Essentially going in the same draft position as Moore is Erasmo Ramirez, who found a new lease on his career in Tampa thanks primarily to a change in slider usage. If his home-run rate really is going to stay near league-average and the control improvements are legitimate, Ramirez’ seven strikeouts per-nine will play with a sub-4.00 ERA. If not, well, again, he’s not going to cost you a ton, and in the Rays’ case, they basically got him for free. Ramirez will also be a nice test case for how sticky infield-fly improvements can be – he had an infield fly ball percentage of 13 percent a season ago, which, combined with his strikeouts-minus-walks, make him an interesting study.

Should either of those names struggle or hit the shelf before Cobb’s ready, the Rays have a few young arms worth keeping tabs on.

Blake Snell was added to the 40-man roster following an excellent 2015 that saw him jump from High-A to Triple-A. At 23, the Rays might play coy with his service time, but it’s telling that they kicked the tires on an extension for him before he’s ever spent a day on the roster. That’s a very Rays thing to do, but they wouldn’t do it for just anyone – Snell would project for a strikeout per-inning and a roughly 4.00 ERA out of the gate if called upon. He’s the Rays’ top prospect for good reason.

Similarly, Jacob Faria was added to the 40-man coming off of a great 2015, but he’s yet to pitch above Double-A and is a year younger than Snell. His strikeout potential would make him an intriguing spot-start if called upon late. The same goes for Taylor Guerrieri, the 23-year-old former first-round pick who saw 36 successful innings at Double-A last year. Either could get the call but the early months of the season will determine who’s first in line – Guerrieri appears a shade further away but has the higher upside. Brent Honeywell is behind both of them but is on the 2017 radar.

A little closer to a call could be Matt Andriese, who made his major-league debut last season in a swingman role. The results were solid for the 26-year-old – a 4.11 ERA and 4.14 FIP buoyed by a strong ground-ball rate – but his upside is moderate and he probably figures in more as a high-inning long-man right now. He’s going to get innings this year, whatever the role, and would warrant a look in deeper formats if inserted into the rotation.

Chase Whitley isn’t expected back until very late in the season but that seems unlikely to matter to you.

In Cash’s wallet

The Rays may have sent out McGee, but they’re not wanting in the closer role. Brad Boxberger enters the season as a top-15 closer, even coming off of a tough 2015. Accompanying a run-plus jump in ERA, FIP, and xFIP was a return to control issues and a serious decline in strikeout rate, caused in part by a decrease in swinging-strike rate and in part by regression. A 42.1-percent strikeout rate isn’t going to hang around forever. Still, he remains a solid source of punch-outs and should have ample save opportunities for roughly an 81-win team. Expect the ratios to fall somewhere between 2014 and 2015, with a repeat of 40 saves possible.

If Boxberger stumbles – he’s been homer-prone in the past – there’s no clear-cut option, though there are plenty of options. Danny Farquhar has closer experience and seems like a typical Rays reclamation bet. Alex Colome may be the most valuable chit Kevin Cash has, as well as perhaps the best closer candidate after Boxberger, but he also threw 109.2 innings a year ago and probably figures as a piggy-back long-arm that Cash will lean on creatively (smart use of a good reliever, just not a fantasy-friendly one). Steve Geltz is in a similar spot, playing every role imaginable for the Rays last year, perhaps earning Cash’s trust if he needs a fill-in. Ryan Webb has a ton of relief experience but zero career saves and almost no intrigue as a potential closer.

That’s a lot of unsexy options, and the team is thin enough on lefties that Xavier Cedeno and Enny Romero are probably preferred in more flexible middle-relief roles. The likely case if Boxberger struggles or gets hurt is that Cash goes bullpen by committee, managing the group like I manage an OOTP bullpen, with no regard for the saves stat.

Andrew Bellatti could crack the bullpen, too, though he wasn’t nearly as good as his 2.31 ERA would suggest in his major-league debut. There’s some strikeout juice there but it’s accompanied by potential control and long-ball concerns. Andriese could see time at the back end, too, if he’s not starting. And hey, Dana Eveland still exists!