With the smaller Thursday game slate, I expanded my normal Fantrax ownership out to 25%. In all, there are a couple decent options.

Jason Vargas (25%) at Nationals

Look at those home runs (1.9 HR/9) and the .325 BABIP. That’s what happens with a lefty is sitting at 86.5 mph, he gets hit around. His 6.47 ERA would even be worse without his 7.9 K/9.

As for his value in this game, he’s very borderline and it may come down to league depth. The Nationals are middle of the pack against lefties and are going with unproven Joe Ross. The chose to use him is a coin flip.

Jorge Lopez (19%) at Tigers

Like with Vargas, the outlook isn’t great but some of the other options are horrible. Lopez has been able to be a productive low strikeout, high walk pitcher by limiting the damage done by batted balls (.289 BABIP, 0.5 HR/9). His 47% GB% doesn’t point to him being either a groundball or flyball pitcher but he’s both.

His four-seamer (29% GB%) and slider (36% GB%) are high flyball pitches. His curve (61% GB%) and change (65% GB%) are the groundball pitches. His major issue is that his sinker, which he throws more than any pitch, has a middle of the road 44% GB%. Also, it has the lowest swinging-strike rate (5%) of any of this pitches. There are signs he could be more. I’m just not sure it’ll happen this season.

He’s a reasonable streamer except for those owners needing to protect their WHIP. He’s always been prone to giving up walks and this season it’s no different (3.8 BB/9).

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Wednesday’s slate of starting pitchers is not fully set, as there are still no fewer than five teams listing TBD as their starter as of this writing. I have filled in some of the blanks, projecting that Stephen Gonsalves will be the Twins’ primary pitcher and Sam Gaviglio will start for the Blue Jays. That increases the number of widely-available projected “starters” to eight, using a 25 percent ownership rate on Fantrax as a cutoff point.

While most owners are forsaking these hurlers, a few are reasonable streaming options, particularly in deeper formats.
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It’s a slate of studs with several aces going, but there are still a host of useful starters to run out there in your playoff or roto chase to the top.

(I’ll be citing the FantasyPros roster rates)

Joey Lucchesi – SD v. SF (26%)

Lucchesi is a slam dunk spot start thanks to the easiest matchup a lefty can get in the second half. The Giants are 30th in wOBA against lefties since the break at .262. Meanwhile, it’s not just the matchup that is appealing here as Lucchesi’s had a useful 4.13 ERA and 54 strikeouts in 48 innings.

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For today’s limited game slate, I pushed my normal Fantrax’s ownership rate to 23% to snag a few more arms.

Ryan Borucki at Baltimore (23%)

The 24-year-old lefty is not a bad option considering he’s facing the Orioles with Andrew Cashner on the mound. Borucki isn’t going to provide a ton of strikeouts (5.9 K/9) but his low HR/9 (0.6) has kept his ERA reasonable (4.26).

Trevor Richards vs Nationals (22%)

Richards is the day’s best strikeout option (8.9 K/9) but he’s ratio killer (1.46 WHIP and 4.85 ERA). He gets a small boost since he’s a flyball pitcher (35% GB%) throwing at home where he HR/9 is 0.9 while 1.3 on the road. There are worse options like ….

Andrew Cashner vs Blue Jays (21%)

No way. The only possible desired outcome will be a Win since he is going against Ryan Borucki. Of the pitchers with at least 150 IP, his K%-BB% is the league’s lowest at 5%. Just stay away.
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9/16/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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Tomorrow will be a horrible day to stream. I can barely recommend two pitchers.

All the pitchers were selected had a Fantrax ownership rate of 20% or less.

Eric Lauer vs Rangers (15%)

This game is the pillow fight of the day especially with Lauer facing Yohander Mendez. I could see some random one-out LOOGY get the Win in this game.

Besides Ross, Lauer is probably the day’s best strikeout option. What a bad day.
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The beginning of September is not so long ago, and as the calendar was flipping and major league rosters were expanding, Carlos Rodon was one of the most productive starting pitchers in all of fantasy. He ranked 11th in Roto value among starting pitchers for July and August combined (per CBS rankings) and ninth in fantasy points in standard CBS points leagues over the same period. In short, Rodon had been performing like a fantasy ace for two solid months.

He was consistent, too. Every single one of Rodon’s nine starts in July and August was a quality start, and six of them lasted seven innings or more.
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After posting a 3.12 ERA over 15 starts last season in his MLB debut, which by the way was fully supported by exciting skills, Luis Castillo was rightfully a favorite target for many fantasy owners heading into the year. Unfortunately, his follow-up has been a big disappointment. The 25-year-old has posted a 4.66 ERA, while both his strikeout and ground ball rates have tumbled. He has also been unable to curb his severe gopheritis. When we talk about pitcher inconsistency, Castillo has been the epitome. If we were to ride on a baseball themed roller coaster, it would most certainly be named after him.

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We’ve got a decent group to pick from despite an 8-game slate.

(I’ll be citing the FantasyPros roster rates)

Steven Matz – NYM v. MIA (27%)

Matz was having a good season with a 3.38 ERA through the first half, but opened the second half with four starts of a 13.17 ERA and probably fell off the radar for most, especially since he’s on a terrible team. He’s rallied back with four straight gems, posting a 2.25 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in 24 IP with a 29% K-BB rate. He has faced the Giants twice during that run and they’re baseball’s worst team against lefties in the second half (.264 wOBA, 26% K rate), but he gets a Marlins team that has a .300 wOBA in that same time (21st).

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As is usually the case, the selection of streamable starting pitchers is much heavier on risk than reward, but there is actually a widely-available starter who looks like a pretty safe bet to help your rotation. It’s Felix Pena, who is unowned in at least 85 percent of the leagues on ESPN, CBS and Yahoo and more than 75 percent of Fantrax leagues. In a column I wrote just last week, I made the case for viewing Pena as Patrick Corbin Lite.
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