Top-75 Stats-Based Pitching Prospects

It’s time for another round of potential unknown pitching prospects. In this iteration, I made a rather major change to the age for level adjustment. Additionally, I examined a few high minor league starters.

First, for the adjustment. I felt too many mediocre 20-year-old or younger arms were near the list’s top. While these pitchers could develop into decent 4th or 5th starters, they weren’t top end starters. I cut the factor for age at the level by over half. More elite pitcher from the lower levels, no matter their age, jumped up the list.

Additionally, I keep getting comments on being transparent on the process. It’s not complex with just three inputs. With so much noise included into ERA and any batted ball data, a struggling pitcher can be high on this list.

Are

  • A supplement to Eric’s and Kiley’s prospect rankings. This set utilizes stats (just walks and strikeouts), the pitcher’s age compared to the level’s average age, and some regression to find potential overlooked prospects before they start showing up on major prospect lists.

Aren’t

  • A complete list of every prospect. Some will be missed. I don’t care as I’m digging for one-offs. The most likely reason for not being on the list is they haven’t performed, not played much (major factor), or have graduated to the majors. Major league results are also not included.
  • The order doesn’t matter at all, at least to me. Why one person is #8 over some guy at #14 compared to other lists is irrelevant. A single start may jump a pitcher up or down the list. The top prospects are already owned in most dynasty leagues. I feel the order only matters to desperate fan bases looking for some much-needed hope.

 

Top-75 Computer-Based Pitching Prospects
Order Name Team TBF Age 20-80 scale
1 Triston McKenzie Indians 861 20 76
2 Mike Soroka Braves 742 20 74
3 Nick Neidert Marlins 1065 21 74
4 Kolby Allard Braves 1066 20 72
5 Bryse Wilson Braves 1060 20 72
6 Jesus Luzardo Athletics 574 20 70
7 Jose Suarez Angels 698 20 69
8 Forrest Whitley Astros 476 20 68
9 Jack Flaherty Cardinals 707 22 68
10 Michael Kopech White Sox 1069 22 67
11 Luiz Gohara Braves 730 21 66
12 Deivi Garcia Yankees 463 19 65
13 Peter Lambert Rockies 1098 21 64
14 Brent Honeywell Rays 568 22 64
15 Dustin May Dodgers 1018 20 63
16 Shane Bieber Indians 996 23 63
17 Logan Allen Padres 1028 21 63
18 Beau Burrows Tigers 1028 21 62
19 Chris Paddack Padres 318 22 60
20 Sean Reid-Foley Blue Jays 1111 22 60
21 Sixto Sanchez Phillies 563 19 60
22 Lewis Thorpe Twins 821 22 59
23 Freddy Peralta Brewers 751 22 59
24 Ljay Newsome Mariners 1094 21 58
25 Enyel De Los Santos Phillies 1068 22 58
26 Tyler Phillips Rangers 894 20 58
27 Luis Patino Padres 515 18 58
28 Jaime Barria Angels 654 21 58
29 Touki Toussaint Braves 1132 22 57
30 Vladimir Gutierrez Reds 1003 22 57
31 Victor Santos Phillies 418 17 57
32 JoJo Romero Phillies 963 21 56
33 Zac Gallen Marlins 1123 22 56
34 Bo Takahashi Diamondbacks 971 21 56
35 Pedro Avila Padres 1038 21 55
36 A.J. Puk Athletics 533 22 55
37 Genesis Cabrera Cardinals 1078 21 55
38 Foster Griffin Royals 1258 22 55
39 Zack Littell Twins 1111 22 55
40 Brett Kennedy Padres 950 23 54
41 Adrian Morejon Padres 542 19 54
42 Tyler Mahle Reds 609 23 54
43 Walker Buehler Dodgers 424 23 54
44 Jalen Beeks Rays 960 24 54
45 Mitch Keller Pirates 987 22 54
46 Pablo Lopez Marlins 858 22 54
47 Tobias Myers Rays 677 19 54
48 Hunter Greene Reds 315 18 54
49 Brock Burke Rays 1018 21 53
50 Edgar Arredondo Rangers 848 21 53
51 Bailey Falter Phillies 813 21 53
52 Adonis Medina Phillies 924 21 53
53 Ian Anderson Braves 790 20 53
54 Tyler Alexander Tigers 1151 23 53
55 Joey Wentz Braves 772 20 53
56 Caleb Ferguson Dodgers 719 21 53
57 Brusdar Graterol Twins 511 19 53
58 Devin Smeltzer Twins 990 22 52
59 Dane Dunning White Sox 965 23 52
60 Ronny Henriquez Rangers 196 18 52
61 Zac Lowther Orioles 632 22 52
62 Dennis Santana Dodgers 732 22 52
63 Taylor Widener Diamondbacks 983 23 52
64 Justus Sheffield Yankees 870 22 52
65 MacKenzie Gore Padres 326 19 52
66 Trevor Stephan Yankees 582 22 51
67 Dylan Cease White Sox 856 22 51
68 Rogelio Armenteros Astros 946 24 51
69 Mike Shawaryn Red Sox 1103 23 50
70 Wennington Romero Reds 1091 20 50
71 Ariel Jurado Rangers 1089 22 50
72 Yonny Chirinos Rays 781 24 50
73 Edwin Uceta Dodgers 703 20 50
74 Carlos Naveda Rangers 442 18 50
75 Thomas Pannone Blue Jays 790 24 49

Peter Lambert (Rockies)

The 21-year-old righty’s stock is taking off as he dominated Double-A (2.33 ERA) this season but has struggled in seven Triple-A starts (5.61 ERA).

In July, Baseball America had the following report on him.

A 2015 second-round pick out of San Dimas (Calif.) High, Lambert sits at 93 mph with his fastball and tops out at 96. He always had a good changeup but has developed a curveball with depth and a sharp, late break that has become an out pitch. Lambert has plus control of high-quality stuff and a superb feel for pitching.

His control got better as he climbed through the minors (3.2 BB/9 to 2.4 BB/9 to 1.9 BB/9 to 1.2 BB/9) until it took a small step back in Triple-A (1.6 BB/9). Additionally, this season, his GB% has hovered around 50%, limiting the home runs allowed.

While the walks and groundball rate are fine, Lambert’s strikeouts are dropping to unacceptable levels with a 7.3 K/9 in Double-A and 5.4 K/9 in Triple-A. I just don’t see him contributing in 2018, but he may be an option in NL-only leagues in 2019, especially if he can increase the strikeouts.

Logan Allen (Padres)

The Padres recently promoted starters Brett Kennedy and Jacob Nix so Logan Allen may get a call-up this season, too. The 21-year-old lefty might not be promoted as the Padres may want to control his service time clock and he has only started one Triple-A game. He got the call to Triple-A after dominating Double-A with a 9.3 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and a 2.75 ERA.

MiLB talked to Allen about his current repertoire.

After an inconsistent start — four or more earned runs allowed in each of three starts before June — Allen made some changes. He leaned on a curveball that had gotten better since last offseason, and he put more emphasis on his fastball.

According to Allen, his fastball can get up to 96 mph but sits around 92, and his curveball has become much more consistent since the start of the season.

With a consistent fastball and curveball to go along with a changeup and slider he’s always felt comfortable with, Allen is armed with a four-pitch mix, which helped him dominate through a four-start stretch earlier this year.

Also, 2080 posted the following report on Allen early this season.

Allen ran his lively fastball up to 94 mph, sitting 91-to-93 mph. His fastball is a future-plus pitch featuring angle, velocity, and command that projects to be an above-average offering. His best secondary was a hard, short 85-to-88 mph slider that he confidently worked backfoot to righties and could bring front door to lefties. Along with his fastball, the slider also projects as a 60-grade pitch. Allen’s change is still in progress, but it flashes enough fade to keep hitters off the fastball already. It is at least an average third pitch, one that could finish a half-grade better if he develops more feel. A slower, loopy curveball is used as a wrinkle to give a second look at his breaking ball.

The reports on Logan are positive but I just don’t see him getting the call this season which will limit his value.

Ljay Newsome (Mariners)

The 26th rounder is an enigma. The 21-year-old righty showed up on this search because he started one game at Triple-A and then got demoted. He’s never been on any prospect list, ever. I could only find a couple pieces of information on him.

First, he got a major league club invitation this past spring training because he showed the most control of any Mariners minor league pitcher with a 1.1 BB/9 in A-Ball. He’s continued walking no one with a 0.8 BB/9 in High-A with an 8.3 K/9 and extremely low 32% GB%.

I had problems figuring out why nothing was written on him and finally, I found it.

Yep, as rightly he tops out at 89 mph. No self-respecting prospect analyst would ever consider such a soft tosser as a prospect, but I have no self-respect.

With the limited velocity, he’s going to have to prove himself at each level to slowly move up. He’s not helping his cause with a 4.81 ERA this season.





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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hipsterdoofus
Member
hipsterdoofus

If rankings dont matter ” I feel the order only matters to desperate fan bases looking for some much-needed hope.”

why did Allard move down from 1 to 4? Is it random?

Bobby Ayala
Member

For whatever reason Jeff continues to be super-dodgy on his methodology, despite multiple comments following everyone of these postings. So short answer – there is no Why to any of this.

Might as well ignore the table part of this article and treat it as a “Here’s 3 prospects you may not have heard of”

hipsterdoofus
Member
hipsterdoofus

I guess the comments don’t matter along with the order of names.