Top-75 Stats-Based Pitching Prospects

It’s time for another round of potential unknown pitching prospects. In this iteration, I made a rather major change to the age for level adjustment. Additionally, I examined a few high minor league starters.

First, for the adjustment. I felt too many mediocre 20-year-old or younger arms were near the list’s top. While these pitchers could develop into decent 4th or 5th starters, they weren’t top end starters. I cut the factor for age at the level by over half. More elite pitcher from the lower levels, no matter their age, jumped up the list.

Additionally, I keep getting comments on being transparent on the process. It’s not complex with just three inputs. With so much noise included into ERA and any batted ball data, a struggling pitcher can be high on this list.

Are

• A supplement to Eric’s and Kiley’s prospect rankings. This set utilizes stats (just walks and strikeouts), the pitcher’s age compared to the level’s average age, and some regression to find potential overlooked prospects before they start showing up on major prospect lists.

Aren’t

• A complete list of every prospect. Some will be missed. I don’t care as I’m digging for one-offs. The most likely reason for not being on the list is they haven’t performed, not played much (major factor), or have graduated to the majors. Major league results are also not included.
• The order doesn’t matter at all, at least to me. Why one person is #8 over some guy at #14 compared to other lists is irrelevant. A single start may jump a pitcher up or down the list. The top prospects are already owned in most dynasty leagues. I feel the order only matters to desperate fan bases looking for some much-needed hope.

Peter Lambert (Rockies)

The 21-year-old righty’s stock is taking off as he dominated Double-A (2.33 ERA) this season but has struggled in seven Triple-A starts (5.61 ERA).

In July, Baseball America had the following report on him.

A 2015 second-round pick out of San Dimas (Calif.) High, Lambert sits at 93 mph with his fastball and tops out at 96. He always had a good changeup but has developed a curveball with depth and a sharp, late break that has become an out pitch. Lambert has plus control of high-quality stuff and a superb feel for pitching.

His control got better as he climbed through the minors (3.2 BB/9 to 2.4 BB/9 to 1.9 BB/9 to 1.2 BB/9) until it took a small step back in Triple-A (1.6 BB/9). Additionally, this season, his GB% has hovered around 50%, limiting the home runs allowed.

While the walks and groundball rate are fine, Lambert’s strikeouts are dropping to unacceptable levels with a 7.3 K/9 in Double-A and 5.4 K/9 in Triple-A. I just don’t see him contributing in 2018, but he may be an option in NL-only leagues in 2019, especially if he can increase the strikeouts.

Logan Allen (Padres)

The Padres recently promoted starters Brett Kennedy and Jacob Nix so Logan Allen may get a call-up this season, too. The 21-year-old lefty might not be promoted as the Padres may want to control his service time clock and he has only started one Triple-A game. He got the call to Triple-A after dominating Double-A with a 9.3 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and a 2.75 ERA.

MiLB talked to Allen about his current repertoire.

After an inconsistent start — four or more earned runs allowed in each of three starts before June — Allen made some changes. He leaned on a curveball that had gotten better since last offseason, and he put more emphasis on his fastball.

According to Allen, his fastball can get up to 96 mph but sits around 92, and his curveball has become much more consistent since the start of the season.
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With a consistent fastball and curveball to go along with a changeup and slider he’s always felt comfortable with, Allen is armed with a four-pitch mix, which helped him dominate through a four-start stretch earlier this year.

Also, 2080 posted the following report on Allen early this season.

Allen ran his lively fastball up to 94 mph, sitting 91-to-93 mph. His fastball is a future-plus pitch featuring angle, velocity, and command that projects to be an above-average offering. His best secondary was a hard, short 85-to-88 mph slider that he confidently worked backfoot to righties and could bring front door to lefties. Along with his fastball, the slider also projects as a 60-grade pitch. Allen’s change is still in progress, but it flashes enough fade to keep hitters off the fastball already. It is at least an average third pitch, one that could finish a half-grade better if he develops more feel. A slower, loopy curveball is used as a wrinkle to give a second look at his breaking ball.

The reports on Logan are positive but I just don’t see him getting the call this season which will limit his value.

Ljay Newsome (Mariners)

The 26th rounder is an enigma. The 21-year-old righty showed up on this search because he started one game at Triple-A and then got demoted. He’s never been on any prospect list, ever. I could only find a couple pieces of information on him.

First, he got a major league club invitation this past spring training because he showed the most control of any Mariners minor league pitcher with a 1.1 BB/9 in A-Ball. He’s continued walking no one with a 0.8 BB/9 in High-A with an 8.3 K/9 and extremely low 32% GB%.

I had problems figuring out why nothing was written on him and finally, I found it.

Ljay Newsome looked pretty impressive his first time through a Triple-A lineup. Fastball isn't exactly overpowering (topped out at 89 so far), but he's done a good job of locating at and above the letters and mixing in the offspeed. Nine up, nine down so far

— Josh Kirshenbaum (@J_Kirshenbaum) June 15, 2018

Yep, as rightly he tops out at 89 mph. No self-respecting prospect analyst would ever consider such a soft tosser as a prospect, but I have no self-respect.

With the limited velocity, he’s going to have to prove himself at each level to slowly move up. He’s not helping his cause with a 4.81 ERA this season.