Previous deep starting pitcher profiles:
Luzardo, Keller, Myers, & Ortiz
Taillon, Harrison, Martinez, & Singer
Herz, Bassitt, Civale, & Bradford
Birdsong, Littell, Boyd, & Peterson
Sasaki, Singer, Bello, Soriano, & Weathers
Note: I started writing these and then stopped away from a while. The ADP changed quite a bit so the last three aren’t in perfect order with some arms now between them.
A week ago, Blake Snell signed a massive five-year, $182 million contract with the Dodgers. Incredibly, that means that Snell will now play for a third team in the NL West division and remain a Californian the entire time. Has this ever happened before?! He’s got two teams in the NL West and two teams in California to join before sweeping the division and the state. Perhaps he could do it by the end of his career.
Previous deep starting pitcher profiles:
Luzardo, Keller, Myers, & Ortiz
Taillon, Harrison, Martinez, & Singer
Herz, Bassitt, Civale, & Bradford
Birdsong, Littell, Boyd, & Peterson
Previous deep starting pitcher profiles:
Luzardo, Keller, Myers, & Ortiz
Taillon, Harrison, Martinez, & Singer
Herz, Bassitt, Civale, & Bradford
Skipped
Roki Sasaki Read the rest of this entry »
Last week, I elected the starting pitcher all-profit team, naming the most profitable starting pitchers compared to their NFBC average auction values. Now let’s flip over to losses. Though not as exciting to review, you might take solace in knowing you owned a number of these pitchers if you ended up having a disappointing season.
Last week in honor of Election Day, I elected the hitter all-profit team, comparing NFBC average auction values (AAV) to end of seasons values earned as calculated by the FanGraphs auction calculator. Today, I’ll flip on over to starting pitchers.
Continuing an annual tradition, this article ranks the top 25 starting pitching prospects by peak projected MLB ERA heading into 2025 (skip to the bottom for the ranking!)
Like the other projection systems at FanGraphs, my projections capture the usual ingredients: past performance weighted by recenecy, regression to the mean that accounts for a player’s probability of making the major leagues, major league equivalencies to adjust for minor league difficulty, aging, park effects, and league scoring environment. The peak projections make use of aging curves to translate a player’s forecast to a late-20s peak forecast. Regardless of where the “true” peak age is, there is broad consensus that most growth happens in the teen years and early-20s, however.
Previous deep starting pitcher profiles.
Luzardo, Keller, Myers, & Ortiz
Taillon, Harrison, Martinez, & Singer
Skipped
Roki Sasaki Read the rest of this entry »
Previous deep starting pitcher profiles:
Skipped:
Roki Sasaki Read the rest of this entry »
Believe it or not there are already 2025 drafts going on over the NFBC! I have resisted the urge to participate in any just yet, but that doesn’t mean I haven’t been dialed into the early average draft position (ADP) data – make sure to change the dates to 10/01/24 through the current date as it defaults the 2024 data. I was particularly curious what kind of price hikes we’d see on some of the biggest breakout pitchers from the season so I went over to our Player Rater to find my pitchers of interest.
I landed on a group of 6 who were all drafted outside pick-200 while finishing as Top 30 starters. Since it is Draft Champions season (50-round Draft & Hold format), I’m comparing this early ADP to their DC ADP from March 20th-27th which consisted of 21 drafts.
Here’s where they are going through 5 DC drafts and what I think about their chances of a repeat:
Paul Skenes, PIT | 2024 ADP: 283 | 2025 ADP: 11
No surprises here as the 2023 #1 overall pick took the league by storm in mid-May and never looked back. In fact, some boards have him as the #1 starter ahead of Tarik Skubal. He has peaked as high as #5 overall and I believe he will go #1 overall in at least one Main Event next spring, barring any sort of news that would create extra injury concerns. He is undoubtedly the best pitcher on this list and thus there isn’t much else to say. I know some will need more than 133 IP to him this high and while I acknowledge nothing is certain and he could suffer a sophomore slump, there is simply nothing in his profile to suggest there is a high or even moderate likelihood of that. You might get him on the turn or just after as he has a max pick of 18, but if you really want Skenes next year, I suggest a mid-to-late 1st round focus for your KDS.
