Yesterday, I put together my All Sleeper Team, identifying a group of players being drafted outside the Top 200 who could greatly exceed that draft day cost. While those guys are outright recommendations by me, today’s group is a bit different. We’re looking at the All Bum Team, a group of players with quality track records and high draft status in 2017 who ended up being terrible.

The idea is that these guys could reasonably bounce back, especially with health as most were injury flameouts, and the price to see if they will is worth taking a shot. This is more of a cost v. upside situation as opposed to me standing firmly behind them as investments. I’m not trying to hedge or anything, just stating the difference between yesterday’s and this piece. If you believed in these guys last year, then you should probably double down in ’18 because the price has tanked. I will be clear about the ones I’m most interested in buying with the write-up.

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Yes, I know that “sleepers” don’t exist in fantasy baseball as they used to with the Information Age uncovering every potential gem so that no one is truly hidden, but it’s still a term we use to connote an undervalued asset. For this exercise, I’m putting together a lineup with someone at every infield position and three outfielders going after pick 200 in the NFBC average draft position. ADP is coming from our projections page, by the way.

LINEUP

C: Yasmani Grandal | Dodgers, Pick 228 – Grandal is penciled in as the primary starter and yet he’s going a good bit later than his backup, Austin Barnes. I’m a big Barnes fan, but he’s now dealing with an elbow issue and sits on the short end of the platoon. Grandal is a batting average liability, but he’s clubbed 49 homers over the last two seasons and at this cost, there’s a chance he’s your second catcher.

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This offseason, I decided to roll out this series as an extension of my own fantasy draft prep. By sifting through National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) draft data, I’ve gone position by position through average draft position (ADP) info to identify players who I believe my fellow fantasy owners are overrating or underrating. By doing so, I’m able to better identify potential sleepers, and get an idea for what price I’ll pay for them. So far, I’ve written posts on third basemen, shortstops and second basemen, and today I’ll take a stab at first base.

As you might have guessed from reading the headline above this article, today’s comparison involves Rockies rookie Ryan McMahon and Brewers veteran Eric Thames. I’ll lead off by saying that this one boggles my mind more than any of the other underrated/overrated pieces I’ve written this offseason.

Let’s take a quick look at where these two are being drafted:

Essentially, Thames is a 16th-round pick in 12-team standard leagues, and McMahon is a 30th rounder — or in other words, he’s basically being drafted as an NL-only guy. I wondered if these numbers might be changing as we get closer to the season, so I took a look at Yahoo, which has only even had their fantasy baseball site up for a little over week. However, it’s the same story there, where Thames is 86% owned, compared to just 9% for McMahon. My goal for today is to help close that gap.

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As I prepare for my fantasy drafts, I always pay close attention to average draft position (ADP) data to help identify where I might find bargains in my drafts and auctions. It’s a great way to figure out who I’m higher (and lower) on compared to my fellow fantasy owners, which is arguably as valuable as determining my own rankings in the first place. I’ve already done columns on shortstops and second basemen, and today I’ll take a look at the hot corner.

Thanks to the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC), we already have a healthy sample of draft data for 2018. I don’t think it’s any secret that third base is a much more productive position than it once was in fantasy, but there’s still some wacky stuff going on with these ADP values. For example, Kyle Seager and Adrian Beltre are currently being drafted as the No. 17 and 18 3B, respectively. To be fair, Seager hit a career-worst .249 last year, and Beltre played just 94 games due to hamstring and calf strains. Still though, both Beltre and Seager were fantastic fantasy assets as recently as 2016, when they were the No. 5 and 6 third basemen in fantasy.

“But maybe they’re not young and sexy enough,” I thought to myself. “With so many youthful studs at the position, maybe fantasy owners are simply getting bored with vets like Beltre and Seager.” That also appears to not be the case. What I’m coming to realize is that I might just have vastly different 3B rankings than other owners, at least once we get past the No. 10 slot. (For reference, you can view these ADP values paired with Steamer projections right here.)

I think the top 10 3B by ADP are quite reasonable, but when we get into the double digits, madness ensues. Madness! For example, let’s take a look at these two picks, who constitute my underrated/overrated comp for third base.

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A couple weeks ago, I used our newly installed NFBC ADP data to pluck out some potential hitting breakouts via Steamer 600 projections. I have some pitchers for you today. Honestly, the pitcher iteration of this isn’t quite as juicy as the hitters. I think it’s because pitchers displaying strong skills are elevated into prominent roles sooner than hitters so there aren’t many guys with mid-3.00 or better ERA projections in a low innings totals. In fact, the projections of the guys I picked aren’t that great, but I’m willing to bet on them as I believe they can outperform the projection substantially. The first three are guys I’m actively targeting in my drafts while the latter three are bigger injury gambles meant for reserve rosters in mixed leagues.

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Last Friday, I wrote about four of the most obvious closer sleepers. If I’m looking for the lowest hanging fruit, my eyes are on the Diamondbacks, Twins, White Sox, and Angels. That leaves us with plenty of other low hanging fruit. You’ll just need to overlook some minor blemishes.

In case you need justification to bargain hunt for closers, here’s my cold take on the subject:

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Paying full price for saves can make it challenging to build a dominant roster. Closers are among the most inconsistent of baseball assets. Not only do they have the injury and performance risks typically associated with pitchers, but they also have to remain the best reliever on their particular team. A guy like Hector Neris could stay exactly the same – i.e. acceptable but not exceptional – and lose his job.

Last season, 23 relievers had the closer role and then lost it. That’s excluding the handful of players who had the job, lost the job, and later recovered the job. In 2016, 25 closers were booted from the ninth. Only 21 got the ax in 2015. The good news is that many of those guys – like Tyler Clippard – were always meant to be temporary solutions. A handful of struggling teams often account for over half of the demoted closers.

Entering 2018, most of the league looks pretty set in the ninth inning. Even so, we’ll still almost certainly see the usual turnover at the position. Over the next couple days, I’ll cover some of my preferred closer sleepers, starting with the most obvious.

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Welcome to the Ottoneu keeper deadline, 2018 edition.  Today (11:59 PM EDT) is the final day to make that difficult decision about your on-the-bubble players before rosters lock and you set your sights on your upcoming league auction.  Per the rules:

Between the end of the Major League Baseball regular season and the end of arbitration, players may be cut. Between the end of arbitration and the keeper deadline, players may be cut or traded. After the keeper deadline and before the auction draft, teams may not cut or trade any players.

Since the keeper deadline also serves as a de-factor trade deadline, I’ve lined up a few final resources for you below and I’ve asked a handful of Ottoneu experts (Justin, Chad, Brad) to check your questions and comments periodically throughout the day to offer their input on your toughest decisions.  You don’t play this game? You should, but even if your non-Ottoneu keeper deadline is still a few weeks away, feel free to fire your questions below and we’ll do our best to give you feedback (for context, don’t forget to let us know details about your league format).

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“… pros were more likely to ride a wave of irrational exuberance than to fight it. One reason is that it is risky to be a contrarian. ‘Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally’” – Richard Thaler in Misbehaving

At the root level, fantasy baseball is about acquiring more undervalued assists than your opponents. Everyone wants a first-round talent for a last round price (e.g. Aaron Judge). With teams clamoring to acquire every advantage, they are insistent on wasting away an early draft advantage. In early 2018 drafts I’ve participated in, an early emphasis on middle infielders is inflating their value way beyond their projected production. Is the observation wrong? If so why? If not, how can an owner take advantage of this mispricing?

Note: For this article, I will lump second basemen and shortstops together into one middle infield position. Neither position has more talent than the other and the bottom players will be used to fill a middle infield position.

For those who have recently created mixed-league valuations, positional scarcity doesn’t exist besides with catcher. I use the method outlined in Larry Schechter’s book, Winning Fantasy Baseball to determine my values. I’m not going to go into the process’s exact details but it’s the standard procedure used by fantasy experts to prep for auctions. Even a couple years ago a small amount of positional scarcity existed but a huge influx of good middle infielders has raised the group’s overall talent level up to the other positions.

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I was recently asked the following question by Werthless.

Jeff, what are you trying to accomplish here? Are you trying to estimate the volatility in an individual player’s projection? That’s an interesting question, and directly related to the risk of the player. Are you trying to do better than Steamer at predicting performance? That’s a big endeavor. Are you trying to predict injuries? Might be better to do that directly. Are you trying to better estimate number of plate appearances by estimating job security? Might be better to do that directly.

Then, you can combine the models to perhaps better quantify a player’s risk of meeting preseason performance objectives. You can apply your model onto a different year’s data to see how well your predictions match reality (ie. Do the higher risk players actually underperform more often than lower risk players).

I do have a plan I’m implementing but it wasn’t known to my readers. Sorry. I want to understand which hitter traits to concentrate on. If they don’t exist, I created some.

For a few season’s now, my hitters have steadily outperformed my pitchers. In my three main leagues, here are the pitching-hitting splits from this past season.
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