In the run-up to last season, I started a position-by-position series aimed at deep league owners and who, outside of the top 15 or 18 players at each position, they should target in drafts. I don’t know if it was helpful and I’m sure if I looked back at my picks, I’d find some duds in there. As I quickly found out covering my Deep League beat last season, finding studs amongst the bottom rung of players can often feel like an exercise in futility. But don’t tell that to deep league managers for whom there’s value in mediocrity. So, with that compelling introduction, let’s look at some mediocre catchers, eh?

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The series continues! We’re here to discuss the following question – which current MLB starters might flop in 2017, opening an opportunity for a prospect or non-full time player? During Spring Training, we’ll go into a full dive on team depth charts, fleshing out these opportunities in more detail. This post is meant to be quick and dirty. If you missed the previous editions, you can find the NL East here, AL West here, and NL Central here.

I’ve constrained myself to players I believe may predictably fail. The person who asked the question used the Tigers rotation, Jimmy Rollins, Shin-Soo Choo, and Luke Gregerson as examples. He or she profited from Michael Fulmer, Tim Anderson, Ken Giles, and Nomar Mazara.

Let’s begin.

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Quote of the day

“People tell me that, and I’m like, ‘Shut up.’ ” –Trea Turner when asked why he hits so many home runs and doesn’t bunt more.

Quick (Long) Look at Matt Andriese

Andriese intrigues me as a potential sleeper. Historically, he has never been a highly rated prospect when he was a third-round pick out of Clemson. Baseball America ranked him at the Padres 20th rated prospect (50 overall grade) in 2013 and in 2014 he was 15th in their system (50 grade again). Then the Rays traded for him where he fell off the prospect map. From his old Baseball America profiles, he was working on several pitches but nothing stood out. When Kiley McDaniel graded him in 2015, he graded him with future 45’s to 55’s but put his overall grade at 40. No one extolled his virtues when he was finally called up to the majors.

I first noticed him when his 3.30 pERA (ERA based on each pitch’s results) was quite a bit lower than his 4.37 ERA. The per pitch grade had him with a plus change (60 grade), average fastball and curve (50 grade), and below average cutter/slider (45 grade). Additionally, he showed plus-plus control with his 1.8 BB/9 which when combined with his pitch grades put him as a 55-grade (above average) pitcher. Examining his 2015 season, his pitches were graded the same except he was throwing a below average two-seamer and didn’t have as much control.

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The series continues! We’re here to discuss the following question – which current MLB starters might flop in 2017, opening an opportunity for a prospect or non-full time player? During Spring Training, we’ll go into a full dive on team depth charts, fleshing out these opportunities in more detail. This post is meant to be quick and dirty. If you missed the previous editions, you can find the NL East here and the AL West here.

I’ve constrained myself to players I believe may predictably fail. The person who asked the question used the Tigers rotation, Jimmy Rollins, Shin-Soo Choo, and Luke Gregerson as examples. He or she profited from Michael Fulmer, Tim Anderson, Ken Giles, and Nomar Mazara.

Let’s begin.

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Yesterday, I kicked off a six-part series to answer the following question – which current MLB starters might flop in 2017, opening an opportunity for a prospect or non-full time player? During Spring Training, we’ll go into a full dive on team depth charts, fleshing out these opportunities in more detail. This post is meant to be quick and dirty. You can find the NL East here.

I’ve constrained myself to players I believe may predictably fail. The person who asked the question used the Tigers rotation, Jimmy Rollins, Shin-Soo Choo, and Luke Gregerson as examples. He or she profited from Michael Fulmer, Tim Anderson, Ken Giles, and Nomar Mazara.

In the NL East post, we had a good chat about Jeurys Familia in the comments. I highlighted Addison Reed as a guy who could take Familia’s job. To be clear, they’re both top 15 relievers, it’s just that Reed happens to be better than Familia. And he doesn’t have domestic violence suspension ruining his April. If Reed has a sub-2.00 ERA and domineering stuff when Familia returns, it’s going to be awfully hard to demote him. The best use case for Familia owners is if the Mets decide to use Reed like Andrew Miller.

Returning to the matter at hand, let’s head west…

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Last week, a reader asked Brandon Warne a question. Behind the scenes, Warne passed it along to the rest of the RotoGraphs crew. I decided it was worth a post or six. This is how we got where we are today (aren’t you glad you read that?).

Here’s the question in paraphrased form – which current MLB starters will flop in 2017, opening an opportunity for a prospect or non-full time player?

Let’s talk about the NL East today. We’ll rinse and repeat for the other five divisions later this week. During Spring Training, we’ll go into a full dive on team depth charts, fleshing out these opportunities in more detail. This post is meant to be quick and dirty.

I’ve constrained myself to players I believe may predictably fail. The person who asked the question used the Tigers rotation, Jimmy Rollins, Shin-Soo Choo, and Luke Gregerson as examples. He or she profited from Michael Fulmer, Tim Anderson, Ken Giles, and Nomar Mazara.

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This time of year, I love perusing the NFBC ADP data and identifying potential late-round targets. For the sake of using a round number as a cutoff, I opted to focus on players who were select after pick 300 on average. Three players stood out as especially intriguing to me. Read the rest of this entry »

In ottoneu, most owners will implement some form of platoon among their outfield spots. While platooning in fantasy baseball is hardly sage advice, ottoneu is a little bit different in that the format specifically lends itself to platooning more than other fantasy platforms. First, you have 40 roster spots. Second, you have 5 OF spots and a 810 game cap at the position. Third, it’s a point format. Because of the 810 cap, you almost need to start a full slate of OF in nearly every game you can, as scheduled off days can make it very difficult to meet the 162 game cap at each of the 5 outfield spots. On top of that, the roster, because of it’s size, allows you to stash prospects or players you plan to use only in specific situations. However, you want to make sure you don’t depend on them too heavily, as scheduling can easily leave you below the cap.

Granted, if you’ve played ottoneu for any amount of time, you already know this. You know that platooning can be an extremely effective strategy. You probably know that strong side platoons are really what you want to acquire (more plate appearances) and you probably have a good idea of a couple names who fit this bill. You are looking for hitters who are likely to get 400+ plate appearance in their platoon role, so as not to be left missing starts with regularity. Today, I want to look at 3 (it’s a new year and I’m feeling generous) players who fit the bill of effective RHP mashers, but at varying costs.

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Entering 2016, Liam Hendriks was one of my favorite relief sleepers. In fact, I fantasized in my Bold Predictions piece that he’d enter 2017 as an elite closer. And while the results are laughable in hindsight, you can understand why I was bullish on him.

Coming off an outstanding 2015 in Toronto, Hendriks entered a remade Oakland bullpen headlined by a formerly dominant but unequivocally injury prone Sean Doolittle. His other competition included renowned ball four-enthusiast, John Axford, rookie Ryan Dull, and a resurgent but Medicare-eligible Ryan Madson. All possessed as many risks as virtues and it seemed, given the lingering questions surrounding them, that Liam Hendriks’ big fastball, elite command, and strong ground ball rate should have put him towards the top of the queue once the inevitable arm injury befell Doolittle. So what happened?

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Yesterday, I wrote up Rich Hill’s 2016 season, declaring him The Leader of Baseball’s Movementarians. In researching the piece, I dove deep into Baseball Prospectus’ Pitchf/x leaderboards. I wanted to find out what makes Hill’s fastball so dominant, despite its unremarkable velocity, and his curveball so effective, given its unimpressive whiff rate. I’m not an expert in pitching mechanics. I can’t breakdown video or tell you much about grips. For that, talk to Eno. But I found that Hill enjoys two distinct advantages that make his (essentially) two-pitch arsenal play up.

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