We’re just over a week into the 2016 season, and you don’t need me to tell you not to overreact to this tiny sample of game action. What I decided upon for this week is a look at three second basemen — ranked outside the top 15 in our experts’ preseason rankings — who find themselves off to hot starts at the plate. Who should you believe in, and who’s the beneficiary of small-sample flukes?

Starlin Castro (preseason No. 16) – BUY

Sandwiched around his most productive offensive season, Castro spent most of 2013 and 2015 scuffling at the plate:

• 2013 (705 PA) – .245/.284/.347, 4.3% BB, 18.3% K, .102 ISO
• 2014 (569 PA) – .292/.339/.438, 6.2% BB, 17.6% K, .146 ISO
• 2015 (578 PA) – .265/.296/.375, 3.6% BB, 15.7% K, .110 ISO

One of these things is not like the others, and a major question coming into the year was which Castro would show up in New York. The 26-year-old has lit up the scoreboard since debuting with the Yankees, with two homers and two doubles in his 9-for-20 start. Jeff Sullivan recently wrote an excellent article about some slight adjustments Castro’s made at the dish, closing off his stance and improving his plate coverage.

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I always enjoy a quality theme when composing these tiers. From Kurt Russell movies to hard rock bands to vacation destinations, I’ve had a healthy variety of themes. With WrestleMania coming up this weekend, I considered some sort of wrestling theme. However, my writing is frequently littered with wrestling references — both obvious and subtle — on a regular basis, so using it as a tier theme could amount to overkill.

For this first set of tiered rankings, I decided on the theme of Final Four teams. The main reason I settled on this theme is that I’m only splitting the players into four tiers this month. As the season gets underway, more clear delineations will likely develop within the tiers, and I’ll probably add more to reflect that.

As of right now, however, there’s just not much separating most of these guys right now. My second tier stretches all the way from No. 6 to No. 20, with much of the tier separated by extremely small gaps. For example, would it be surprising at all if Josh Harrison (No. 14) outperformed Ben Zobrist (No. 9), despite the fact that I have Zobrist five spots higher? That’s a pretty good illustration of how tightly grouped the players within these tiers are heading into the season.

If I forgot any players who you think should be on this list, please let me know in the comments section below and I’ll update it. For reference, I used Yahoo’s position eligibility requirements.

TIER ONE – NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS – (No. 1-5)
Jose Altuve
Dee Gordon
Robinson Cano
Ian Kinsler
Brian Dozier

Being the sole 1-seed remaining, UNC is obviously the favorite to take home the title. Of the Final Four teams, the Tar Heels are the one squad that was largely expected to be here all along, and they’re the total package. They should cruise to the championship game with little resistance. HOT TAKE: When you rank No. 2 out of 351 teams in both offensive efficiency and rebounding, you’re going to win a lot of games.

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Let’s go picking and panning once again, this time at the second base position. The updated RotoGraphs consensus rankings, from which I am comparing mine to the rest of the gang’s, are here.

For the second base position, my Picks will only include those in my top 20 and my Pans will only include those in the Consensus top 20.

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I present to you my ten bold predictions for this upcoming season. I’ve placed these items in order of increasing boldness to give you some sense of how likely I think these things are to occur, in hopes that they’re more actionable. The items toward the top of the list are more likely to happen but perhaps not as bold… But I get pretty far out there by the end.

10. Gerardo Parra finishes the year as a top 25 OF. I feel as though this is cheating. Not bold enough. After all, he finished as the 3oth best OF last year (by my calculations). And yet, he’s being drafted as the 53rd OF this season. The issue here may be the projected platoon role he’s in. But is Ryan Raburn really going to take a lot of playing time from him? And with the possibility of Carlos Gonzalez being traded, there are other paths to a full-time role.

In the days of declining batting averages and diminishing stolen bases, a simple 12 HR, 12 SB, and .290 season (his Steamer projection) really adds up in value. Not to mention the move to Colorado offers hope for even more offense. It seems like Parra is being drafted as the former utility outfielder he was with Arizona. He wasn’t sexy. Nobody wanted him. Hopefully putting him in the top 25 crosses the bold threshold.

9. Jose Altuve finishes the year as a top five hitter. Is that bold? I’m not sure. He finished last year as the 13th highest earning hitter and is being drafted as the tenth hitter heading into 2016. Projecting him to outproduce all of Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton, Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado, and Carlos Correa to reach the top five does feel bold-ish. One of my favorite facts about Altuve is that he’s still just 25 years old. I suspect that many believe him to be older than he is because he’s been around for nearly four and a half MLB seasons. Why can’t he have a little more growth in him? Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve been batting over .300 on bold predictions for a while, and I’ve also been getting crap for not being bold enough. So, in the honor of So So Def, I’ll stop slacking on my pimping, and I’ll turn it up.

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We are doing our March ranking updates. You can follow each position here:

• Outfielders
• Starting Pitchers
• First Base
• Shortstops
• Catchers

We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league.  If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. We can also be reached via Twitter:

• Paul Sporer
• Jeff Zimmerman
• Zach Sanders
• Mike Podhorzer
• Dan Schwartz
• Paul Kastava
• Justin Mason

There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.

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We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

Imagine having Mike Trout on your team. Seriously, just think about it for a second. An easy 30 home runs. Roughly a .300/.400/.600 triple-slash line, the baseball equivalent of basketball’s 50-40-90 club. Some stolen bases. Solid defense from a premium position. Kisses babies, shakes hands, frolics with puppies. All that good stuff.

Now imagine surrounding him – he of the four consecutive top-two finishes in American League MVP voting – with a supporting cast that still grades you as below-average on offense, with a 96 weighted runs created-plus and a pedestrian .307 OBP, after including Trout to bring the numbers up. Splitting his time between second and third in the order, Trout managed “just” 90 RBI, in part because the team’s lead-off hitters OBPd .280 (!!) and the team’s other regular No. 2 hitter, Kole Calhoun, struggled to get on base in that spot, too.

It has to be frustrating, having the best player in baseball and missing the playoffs because of the team around him. Not that the Angels were bad – they won 85 games despite getting outscored – and the nice thing about employing Trout is that you’re always going to project as “pretty decent” at worst. Still, it’s not exactly the most exciting lineup around him again in 2016.
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The worst kept secret in the fantasy sports industry is that the people in it are amazing. A little over a year ago, with the help of some friends (with fantasy benefits), I entered the industry with a silly little podcast, a website, and no real expectations that it would ever turn into anything more than a hobby. I was pleasantly surprised to find out how helpful and encouraging the majority of the fantasy industry is. No one ever said no to an appearance. I was given a ton of advice on what works and what doesn’t in the industry. You read what these people write and listen to what they have to say, but what you don’t realize is that they are just as cool in real life as they appear to be from the outside. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is the Second Base and Shortstop installments of our 2016 Ottoneu FGpt rankings.

Previous Rankings: Catcher/First Base/Third Base

In the context of Ottoneu, perhaps rankings are a misnomer, because you really want to know the dollar value each player is worth. We’ve included this information for our benefit. In all, these rankings should help to give you a spread of four dollar values for each player, as well as a comparison to average prices (post-arbitration, pre-cut deadline) within the Ottoneu FGpts universe. Each player’s Ottoneu eligibility (5GS, 10 appearances) is included as well, though players are ranked at their most valuable position. If you have questions on a specific ranking, or a question for a specific ranker, feel free to let us know in the comments.

Consider this your very early, subject to change, Ottoneu pricing cheat sheet.
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We recently began a series looking at the potential top rookie producers at each position around the baseball diamond. This series should be valuable for anyone participating in a fantasy league that allows keepers. It could also help anyone playing in more traditional formats who may need to fill holes throughout the season or may be in need of a little spark.

Previously:
Catchers
First Basemen

Top Targets:

Jose Peraza, Reds: The Reds traded long-time third baseman Todd Frazier to the White Sox back in December in a three-team deal that actually saw the Dodgers receive the better overall rookie haul. Cincinnati received a couple of underwhelming prospects and Peraza — who is reportedly the jewel of the deal from the Reds’ perspective. The rookie second baseman was supposed to fill the gap created by a Brandon Phillips trade but the veteran has so far nixed any attempts from the club to trade him. That creates a bit of a problem for Peraza, who may have to settle for another year in Triple-A or some time as a big league utility player. Once he receives regular playing time, the former Braves prospect has a chance to impact fantasy leagues with his game-changing speed. He stole just 36 bases last year but had 60 or more the two years prior.

Keep an Eye On:

Alen Hanson, Pirates: Pittsburgh’s veteran infield is all but set for 2016 and the club also has jack-of-all-trades Sean Rodriguez coming off of the bench, which means Hanson will once again spend time in Triple-A — barring a significant injury. An offensive-minded second baseman, the 23-year-old rookie does a little bit of everything at the plate — with mostly gap power — and can even steal 20+ bases with regular playing time. His prospect standing in Pittsburgh might be getting a little stale so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him on the move to another organization at some point in 2016. And that might give him a better opportunity to visit The Show.

Micah Johnson, Dodgers: Another speedster, Johnson landed in Los Angeles from Chicago (AL) during the Todd Frazier/Jose Peraza deal. He doesn’t have the ceiling that Peraza possesses but he arguably has a higher floor and is probably ready for The Show — at least in a part-time capacity. Johnson, 25, could provide some valuable fantasy steals but it remains to be seen how much playing time he’ll get in 2016 while playing for the veteran-heavy Dodgers — especially after the re-signing of Howie Kendrick.

Tony Kemp, Astros: It’s hard to project significant playing time for a rookie who shares the same position as spark plug Jose Altuve, who also happens to be the heart and sole of the Astros. Kemp, though, started to expand his defensive repertoire in the minors last season and now has experience at second base, left field and center field. Unfortunately for the promising prospect, the club is also quite stacked, depth-wise, in the outfield. He’ll find some playing at some point, though, thanks to his ability to steal bases, get on base and hit for average.

Darnell Sweeney, Phillies: A full-frontal youth movement should be on full display in Philly in 2016, which could bode well for Sweeney — a former Dodgers prospect. He’ll have to battle the likes of Cesar Hernandez and Andres Blanco for playing time but a hot spring could get him a starting gig. Sweeney, 25, has contact issues but he has some pop and could steal 20-30 bases with regular playing time. His speed also helps him compensate for the lack of contact and creates healthy BABIPs (He’s never hit lower than .271).

Ryan Brett, Rays: Logan Forsythe was the epitome of a league-average hitter throughout the first four years of his big league career but he enjoyed a 4.1 WAR, breakout season in 2015. That has made him the odds on favorite to start at second base for the Rays in 2016. However, one good year does not guarantee a successful future so Brett could be in line for significant playing time if Forsythe falters. The young spark plug isn’t flashy but he could steal some bases and hit for a respectable average.

Dilson Herrera, Mets: Like Jose Peraza, Herrera could be ready to have value at the big league value but he’ll open 2015 blocked by a more veteran player. The organization acquired former Pirate Neil Walker during the offseason and he’ll definitely be given every opportunity to play regularly for the Mets. That will leave Herrera back in Triple-A for a second showing despite producing an .893 OPS there last season. He has the ability to hit for average, steal a couple bases and hit a few home runs over the fence.