2016 Second Base Tier Rankings: Preseason Edition
I always enjoy a quality theme when composing these tiers. From Kurt Russell movies to hard rock bands to vacation destinations, I’ve had a healthy variety of themes. With WrestleMania coming up this weekend, I considered some sort of wrestling theme. However, my writing is frequently littered with wrestling references — both obvious and subtle — on a regular basis, so using it as a tier theme could amount to overkill.
For this first set of tiered rankings, I decided on the theme of Final Four teams. The main reason I settled on this theme is that I’m only splitting the players into four tiers this month. As the season gets underway, more clear delineations will likely develop within the tiers, and I’ll probably add more to reflect that.
As of right now, however, there’s just not much separating most of these guys right now. My second tier stretches all the way from No. 6 to No. 20, with much of the tier separated by extremely small gaps. For example, would it be surprising at all if Josh Harrison (No. 14) outperformed Ben Zobrist (No. 9), despite the fact that I have Zobrist five spots higher? That’s a pretty good illustration of how tightly grouped the players within these tiers are heading into the season.
If I forgot any players who you think should be on this list, please let me know in the comments section below and I’ll update it. For reference, I used Yahoo’s position eligibility requirements.
TIER ONE – NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS – (No. 1-5)
Jose Altuve
Dee Gordon
Robinson Cano
Ian Kinsler
Brian Dozier
Being the sole 1-seed remaining, UNC is obviously the favorite to take home the title. Of the Final Four teams, the Tar Heels are the one squad that was largely expected to be here all along, and they’re the total package. They should cruise to the championship game with little resistance. HOT TAKE: When you rank No. 2 out of 351 teams in both offensive efficiency and rebounding, you’re going to win a lot of games.
I don’t feel the need to do much analysis on North Carolina, because they’re such a clear-cut top choice. Similarly, I think there’s a rather obvious gap between these five players and anyone in the next tier down, and how much do you really need to hear about guys like Altuve anyway? In fact, my top five is exactly the same as our experts’ consensus rankings — which is far from the case when we get lower down the list — so I doubt I have much explaining to do here.
TIER TWO – OKLAHOMA SOONERS – (No. 6-20)
Matt Carpenter
Rougned Odor
Ben Zobrist
Jason Kipnis
Daniel Murphy
Anthony Rendon
Neil Walker
Kolten Wong
Josh Harrison
Howie Kendrick
Brandon Phillips
Dustin Pedroia
Addison Russell
Starlin Castro
DJ LeMahieu
In their Elite Eight matchup, Oklahoma made No. 1-seed Oregon look more like Oregon State. Popular opinion seems relatively split between Oklahoma and Villanova behind UNC, but I’m going with Oklahoma to represent tier two. First off, I graduated from OU and still live in Norman, so allow me my homerism. Secondly, the Sooners have Buddy Hield, who will almost certainly take home the Wooden Award for best player of the year in college hoops.
The Sooners are far from a one-man team, as the core of Hield, Isaiah Cousins, Ryan Spangler and Jordan Woodard have all started Oklahoma’s last 104 consecutive games. That kind of consistency is exceedingly rare in modern college basketball. However, what keeps the Sooners firmly below the North Carolinas of the world is a lack of quality depth.
Aside from the starters, Oklahoma doesn’t have anyone who averages more than 12.4 minutes or 3.6 points per game. The lack of bench production is a terrifying thought for Sooner fans; if one of the starters gets in foul trouble, things could spiral downward in a hurry. Much like Oklahoma’s top-heavy lineup, this tier consists of productive players with weaknesses that prevent them from reaching the first tier at present.
It’s probably most interesting for me to discuss the players whom I rate significantly higher/lower than our experts, so let’s start with Neil Walker. The 30-year-old was one of my Bold Predictions this year, as I see a possible top-ten fantasy 2B season for Walker. I’m not going to rehash my entire prediction on Walker, but he finished last season strong and is in a great run/RBI spot this year.
A player I’m down on relative to our expert rankings is DJ LeMahieu. The red-hot Trevor Story will begin the season at shortstop, and if his production even remotely resembles what he did this spring, I don’t see the Rockies sending him back to Triple-A (or the bench) when Jose Reyes returns.
Speaking of Reyes, with the news that the charges against him are about to be dropped, it seems highly unlikely that he’ll see more than a 30ish-game suspension. I certainly don’t see LeMahieu falling out of the picture entirely, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see his playing time at second take a hit if Reyes and Story are both producing. I’m also not convinced that LeMahieu’s career year last season is sustainable going forward, even if he gets 600+ PA again.
TIER THREE – VILLANOVA WILDCATS – (No. 21-32)
Logan Forsythe
Brett Lawrie
Eduardo Escobar
Joe Panik
Jonathan Schoop
Cory Spangenberg
Devon Travis (+)
Yangervis Solarte
Trea Turner (AAA)
Brock Holt
Brad Miller
Martin Prado
I’ve heard plenty of arguments for Villanova over Oklahoma. For me, the Wildcats’ 23-point loss (their most lopsided defeat of the year) to Oklahoma in December — also on a neutral court — can’t just be ignored. College basketball teams evolve quite a bit over the course of four months, but would you rather head into the Final Four facing a team you beat by 23, or lost to by 23? Yeah, that’s what I thought.
However, overlooking Villanova would be a big mistake, especially seeing as they got here by beating Kansas, the only team OU played all year and did not defeat. (Two of Oklahoma’s seven losses this year were against Kansas, while the other five all came against conference opponents who the Sooners beat in the other side of the home-and-home.) If Nova can shut down Kansas like they did, you’d better believe they have the potential to do it to Oklahoma as well.
The Wildcats are also a better offensive team than many people realize — while they are awfully dependent on jump shots, they also happen to have a bunch of really good shooters. In fact, they have five players who play at least 24 minutes per game with 3-point shooting percentages over 35%. That’s a lot of firepower.
Much like Nova has a legit — if dark-horse — shot at the title, Logan Forsythe could very well be a huge value play in fantasy leagues this year. The 29-year-old will lead off for the Rays this year, which should simultaneously bump up his runs while also knocking down his RBI. Still, this is an intriguing spot for Forsythe, as I can’t help but wonder if he might not run a bit more.
Forsythe has just 28 steals in his 1,713 major-league PA, but he’s also only been caught eight times. Furthermore, he posted four consecutive double-digit SB seasons from 2009-2012. He’s certainly not a burner and won’t ever be a 20+ SB guy, but with speed at a premium in today’s game, even an extra five steals could give Forsythe a nice bump, especially with how tightly grouped the tier above him is at present.
Eduardo Escobar is a guy I’m keeping my eye on as the season gets underway. He earned another of my Bold Predictions, and I wrote about him at length in September. Escobar made major strides in several important areas last year, such as expanding his plate coverage against righties. Also, his slash line once he became the Twins’ starting shortstop was a very attractive .294/.349/.514.
I’m way higher on Escobar than any of our rankers, and that’s fine. It’s not like I’m staking my reputation on my No. 23 preseason second baseman. Still, I believe his fantasy ceiling to be higher than a guy like Joe Panik, and although Panik’s floor is higher, Tier Three isn’t where I’m looking for players with decent floors.
Speaking of Panik, I’m sure I’ll get some hate for ranking him as low as I did (BELOW EDUARDO ESCOBAR?!), but I am still just not a believer in the guy as a fantasy commodity. Even if he hits over .300 again — and continues to bat in the No. 2 spot — he’s the definition of an empty batting average. He’ll score some runs, but I’ll take the under on him hitting eight homers again, and he does not possess the speed to steal bases at the major-league level.
TIER FOUR – SYRACUSE ORANGE – (No. 33-47)
Javier Baez (+)
Cesar Hernandez
Enrique Hernandez
Johnny Giavotella
Scooter Gennett
Chris Coghlan
Wilmer Flores
Marwin Gonzalez
Chris Owings
Jace Peterson
Jurickson Profar (AAA)
Chase Utley
Steve Pearce
Danny Espinosa
Ryan Goins
“Hey, we’re here too!” That’s the rallying cry of the 10-seed Orange, as well as most of the players in this tier. But hey, they did get here, so let’s talk about a few. I’m far from ready to give up on Javier Baez, even if he’s failed to live up to the lofty expectations I had for him two years ago. Baez has plenty of holes in his game — particularly his outrageous strikeout problem — but I refuse to throw in the towel on a guy who’s still just 23 years old.
Baez will start the season on the DL, and there’s really no clear path to regular playing time on the major-league roster, except as a utility player. Still, Baez is just one teammate injury — and a couple of adjustments at the plate — away from being a possible fantasy stud, and it’s incredibly difficult to say that about anyone else this low on the list.
Profar is the other faded-star prospect in this tier, after missing nearly two full seasons to shoulder ailments. Like Baez, Profar is also 23, but unlike Baez, he has to prove that he’s fully recovered from an injury that cost him over 300 games. He’s still worth watching, though. If he comes back in Triple-A looking like the five-tool prospect he seemed to be several years ago, he could make an impact later in the season.
TIER UGGLA – FLORIDA A&M RATTLERS – (No. Just no.)
Dan Uggla (FA)
Just because he’s not actually on a team doesn’t mean I’m getting rid of Tier Uggla! Much in the same way Dan Uggla can’t find a major-league home anymore, the Florida A&M Rattlers didn’t make the NCAA Tournament. I picked the Rattlers to represent Uggla because they were uniquely horrible this season, finishing dead last — out of 351 teams — in the Sagarin ratings.
Chicago State’s hilariously inept 1-28 record made them a strong candidate for this spot, but Florida A&M went 6-21 while also possessing the easiest strength of schedule in all of Division I basketball. Even against the worst possible collection of opponents, the Rattlers still won just 22.2% of their games, which is probably pretty close to what Uggla’s contact rate will be if he ever gets another shot in the majors.
Scott Strandberg started writing for Rotographs in 2013. He works in small business consultation, and he also writes A&E columns for The Norman Transcript newspaper. Scott lives in Seattle, WA.
Altuve and Dee Gordon are their own tier.
I considered that — as I had Altuve in his own tier for much of last season — but those top five are pretty much universally ranked as such, so I think that represents a clear delineation between those guys and anyone in the second tier. (Splitting off Altuve/Gordon also would have ruined my theme, so I decided to stick with the five-man top tier.)
They need to be in their own tier. The idea of using tiers instead of (or in addition to) dollar values, is that the guys in the tiers are close to interchangeable. You can see where value drops off between tiers, gauge when to jump into a position based on the market, etc.
NFBC ADP:
Altuve: $35 (#11 overall)
Gordon: $32 (15)
Cano: $22 (53)
Dozier: $17 (85)
Kinsler: $15 (102)
Rendon: $17 (86)
Odor: $16 (93)
Carpenter: $17 (82)
Kipnis: $14 (109)
Everyone has their own projections, so maybe you don’t like some the NFBC data, but Altuve and Gordon are close to DOUBLE the value of everyone else at the position (Cano excepted). It’s pretty clear that Kinsler & Dozier are in the next tier down.
I don’t want to be harsh, but if you’re basing your tiers on how well it fits your theme, you’re doing this completely wrong…
“those top five are pretty much universally ranked as such, so I think that represents a clear delineation between those guys and anyone in the second tier.”
The ‘ruining my theme’ part was in jest. I do get what you’re saying though, Altuve/Gordon probably do deserve their own tier.
yeah, no way Kinsler (regressing every year) deserves to be in the same tier as those 2. Not even the somewhat flawed Dozier belongs there, those two (and I would even argue that Altuve is a tier unto himself) are clearly above everyone else.
Not sure why Kinsler is in a tier above Kipnis.
Depth Charts:
Kinsler: 13-83-68-11 .273/.321/.410
Kipnis: 11-78-61-18 .271/.344/.407
Steamer:
Kinsler: 14-82-66-11 .268/.317/.409
Kipnis: 11-74-57-15 .268/.343/.399
ZiPS:
Kinsler 12-85-72-11 .277/.324/.411
Kipnis 11-78-61-20 .275/.346/.415
The numbers aren’t the far off, and Rotographs is constantly telling us about the scarcity of SB’s and Kipnis having at a minimum a 16 point advantage in OPS with Kinsler being five years Kipnis’ senior. We’ve also seen some underlying improvement from Kipnis with his K% while Kinsler posted the second lowest ISO of his career. I just don’t see the justification for one being in a different tier than the other. And then you have Carpenter and Odor who both project better than Kipnis and Kinsler and they’re sitting in the second tier with Kinsler above them.
It’s all about the consistency with Kinsler. Even as he’s declined from his 2011 peak, he’s remained one of the top 2B in fantasy over the last several years, and he’s averaged 694 PA per season in the last five. Kipnis has the higher ceiling, but Kinsler has a much higher floor in my opinion.
That’s a good reason! Suggestion for next time, instead of spending 6 paragraphs dissecting Oklahoma/Villanova, make your arguments like this in the article itself.
To be fair, that’s kind of what the comments section is for with rankings posts. I’m not going to go into detail in the article about why I ranked each of the 47 players where I did, because that post would be a million pages long and no one would want to read it.
Put me down as a vote for more explanation/analysis, not less. And you have to know that at Rotographs of all places, you’re going to get pushback when the analysis is light.
But that’s fine. There’s a bunch of writers here, I’m not going to like the style of all of them. You’ve gotta differentiate yourself from the crowd, right?
I dunno, personally (and this may be wrong, I’m not an expert), but it seems like even if a league doesn’t score for it, a player should get a bump for his OPS because it can help him over perform his other projections, and if that’s the case, and we’re going with consistency for Kinsler over Kipnis, Carpenter, and Odor (who I admit, is more of a wild card), then Zobrist needs a bump up to the first tier. His lineup has the potential to be even better than the Tigers (in fact, the Cubs are projected for 72.3 Bat -2B on the depth charts vs the Tigers 26.7 -2B), so with Zobrist projected to bat third by RotoChamp (vs Kinsler batting leadoff with the Tigers), it would seem to me that Kinsler’s RBI projections are too high while Zobrist’s RBI’s are way too low.
If we’re putting stock in the projections, which we should, it just seems like Zobrist has a higher overall chance of outperforming his while likely staying just as consistent in HR’s and AVG. Neither Kinsler or Zobrist have very low floors, but it seems like Zobrist has a higher ceiling.
Again though, my only real gripe here is that Kinsler made it into the first tier. When comparing the other names, their 2015 numbers, and their projections, one of them is not like the others, one of them doesn’t belong.
It’s fun and cute to have your tiers named after something non-baseball related, but you shouldn’t spend more time analyzing your dumb tier ranks than the players within them.
This is a pretty low-quality article from a fantasy baseball perspective.
Tiers so big, not tiers at all.
Tier 1: starters in an AL+NL league. Tier 2: also starters in AL/NL-only leagues. Tier 3: Not.
Done.
And just ignore natural break points? Naw.
For example, if you have 2B auction values of:
42, 40, 39, 27, 25, 24, 18, 16, 15, 15, 10, 9, 9, 5, 5, 4
In a 12-team league, using your methodology, you would break between the two $9 players even though they’re expected to return the same value ?
And have a $42 guy and a $9 guy in the same tier ?
This…this is not a good system.
I could be misinterpreting, but I saw Mario’s comment as a statement about how the Author did his tiers, not as a statement about how tiers should be done.
You interpreted correctly, DKnapp.
That struck me as the only use anyone could ever make of such large tiers.
“In fact, my top five is exactly the same as our experts’ consensus rankings — which is far from the case when we get lower down the list — so I doubt I have much explaining to do here.”
The problem with this is that this article is not a ranking, its a tiering, so while I completely disagree with your rankings vis a vis Dozier and Kinsler vs. Carpenter Odor and Rendon, I shouldn’t be arguing about them, the actual issue stems from the fact that you have clearly comparable players thrown into two different tiers, (where they differentiate far more from the other end of their respective tiers than each other). Your refusal to explain this tiering makes it all that much more frustrating to read the piece and see something that deviates from my own calculations by so much. The explanation in this piece shouldn’t be about a couple of random guys in the middle of the tiers, but should instead be about why one tier ends where it does and begins the next tier, once we are provided with that, we can make our own decisions and say “well, I like X player in tier 3 more than Y player in tier 2, so I’ll either move X player to tier 2, or Y player to tier 3, but the marginal differences in expected production will remain intact. As other commenters have pointed out, “The ranks stopped being consensus here, so the value gap must be large as between these players” is not sound logic.
Thanks for the piece
Do you pronounce your name, “Dick Nap”?
“The explanation in this piece shouldn’t be about a couple of random guys in the middle of the tiers, but should instead be about why one tier ends where it does and begins the next tier.”
I think you’re right about this, Dknapp26. I will absolutely keep that in mind for next month. As for the tiering, I’ve decided that I made a mistake in putting all five of those top guys in the top tier. Altuve and Gordon do deserve their own tier.
Where’s Jed Lowrie?
Does this mean Jose Peraza is outside of the top 47 2B? I know his path to playing time is uncertain, but is there no place for him in Tiers 3/4 with his speed upside?
The Library or The Abner?