Archive for Roto

This article is going to be most interesting to managers in head-to-head leagues. Adding streaky players that look ready to explode is still valuable for season-long roto and points league managers. But in those weekly matchup leagues, where there are only a handful of weeks left before the playoffs, it really starts to matter.

In this article, I will show you some of this season’s streakiest players, using rolling wOBA and HR totals over six game periods. 

The method to my madness was a bit of a back of the napkin calculation, and one I want to refine this offseason to truly identify streaky players over longer samples than three-quarters of a season. 

But for now, I have rolling wOBA and HR totals over six game periods for hitters with at least 100 plate appearances this season, which amounted to more than 30,000 such periods. I then took the average rolling wOBA and HR totals for each qualifying hitter and the five best rolling periods, before taking the difference between the peak and average for each.

I’ll show you those tables below, before narrowing in on some of the players off of these lists, and who show up a bit further down, who could make for interesting hot streak adds for the home stretch. 

Because at least some of us rostered Brandon Belt in 2018. And those of us who did certainly remember his explosive end of the season. Nine homers in August, nine more in September. 

So, who could be season’s Baby Giraffe?

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Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions from the weekend. I dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.

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Kevin McGonigle is running away with the AL Rookie of the Year award.

On the Agenda: 

1. Quick Hits
2. Various News and Notes
3. Streaming Pitchers

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It’s Week 19 of the fantasy baseball season. It’s a sprint now. In redraft leagues, whether it’s a head-to-head or season long format, you want pitchers who are going to pitch, and pitch deep into games. 

At the same time, plenty of teams across the majors are winding down their seasons. If a team sold their stars and spare parts, they probably won’t be letting their young arms go deep into starts anymore. And if a team bought, especially if they bought a rental, expect that player to be used. 

In this article, I’m going to look at starting pitchers on teams that are in competitive playoff races that I think are either worth trading for or worth adding, focusing on some recently moved arms and other players who could potentially be available in your league.  Read the rest of this entry »

Go, Nando, Go!

Fernando Tatis Jr. hasn’t reached double-digit homers this season, but is the only hitter with two 465-ft or greater blasts. Keep ’em coming.

On the Agenda: 

1. Closer Chaos
2. Quick Hits
3. Various News and Notes
4. Streaming Pitchers

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Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions of the weekend. I dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.

Read the rest of this entry »

Series Overview

This series aims to help readers conduct their routine due diligence in their dynasty leagues. It makes use of up-to-date OOPSY Peak projections and my own arbitrary whims to discuss a handful of players, both prospects and major leaguers, who may have seen their perceived value shift recently. Any reference to how a player projects using the FanGraphs auction calculator uses these settings (15-team 5×5 SV 2 C) with OOPSY DC (ROS).

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Intro

On Tuesday, I followed up my study from last week on how prospect lists translate to fantasy auction value. Last week’s research primarily identified key stratifications in career and peak value based on list placement and whether the player is primarily a pitcher or a hitter. This week, I found that the predictiveness of ranking lists relative to fantasy auction value doesn’t seem to be changing much over time.

But before crossing “prospect lists” off of my dynasty ranking model checklist, I wanted to combine these two analyses to look at how or if the ranking buckets hold when broken into more granular year groupings. This is important to my final rankings because I want whatever bucket groupings I use to be representative enough to capture a reasonable picture of the forward-looking value of a given prospect.

So, how do the buckets shake out? Well, read on.

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Where there’s a Winn, there’s a way, or so those who didn’t hear it correctly say. But a Winn is not always winning.

Case in point: Alex Bregman’s two-run double in the 10th inning to defeat Winn’s birds and have outs fall into the Webb of Jacob. There were Crooks at the stadium concession, hoping to steal the last Nootbaar, but they were instantly subdued by Aaron Sir Vale in bottom of the 10th, engulfing flames of pride in the Windy City as their Cub runneth over, standing atop the NL Wild Card standings.

On the Agenda: 

1. Quick Hits
2. Various News and Notes
3. Streaming Pitchers

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With the end of the season in sight, it’s time to kick season-long strategies out of the driver’s seat. Slow and steady may win the race if you’re a tortoise, but in fantasy baseball, it’s either sprint or switch over to football. And who even likes football?

When I say sprint, I mean sprint while throwing any and all things that could weigh you down over your shoulder. Especially in 12-teamers and shallow leagues, this needs to be the mindset. Small sample size holding you back? There’s only a small sample size left! Things are going to be random. It’s getting wiggy. 

Hitters have so many days to frustrate you. Owning Gunnar Henderson this season has been like wading into a pool with a freshly made pizza. Like sure, there’s moments you may enjoy, like the pepperoni-and-pineapple sweet 3-5 game with a bomb. But then your hands get wet, you can barely stand, let alone eat your pizza, and Gunnar is in the midst of a 3-43 stretch. Without a steal. 

You get the picture. 

But today, I’m going to focus on starting pitchers. Relievers are more volatile, and if you’re chasing saves in Roto, best of luck and look to Hogan Harris, I guess? But starting pitchers are truly the kings of the small sample size, especially when the calendar inevitably flips to August. 

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