Rolling? Don’t Trip, Just Peak

This article is going to be most interesting to managers in head-to-head leagues. Adding streaky players that look ready to explode is still valuable for season-long roto and points league managers. But in those weekly matchup leagues, where there are only a handful of weeks left before the playoffs, it really starts to matter.

In this article, I will show you some of this season’s streakiest players, using rolling wOBA and HR totals over six game periods. 

The method to my madness was a bit of a back of the napkin calculation, and one I want to refine this offseason to truly identify streaky players over longer samples than three-quarters of a season. 

But for now, I have rolling wOBA and HR totals over six game periods for hitters with at least 100 plate appearances this season, which amounted to more than 30,000 such periods. I then took the average rolling wOBA and HR totals for each qualifying hitter and the five best rolling periods, before taking the difference between the peak and average for each.

I’ll show you those tables below, before narrowing in on some of the players off of these lists, and who show up a bit further down, who could make for interesting hot streak adds for the home stretch. 

Because at least some of us rostered Brandon Belt in 2018. And those of us who did certainly remember his explosive end of the season. Nine homers in August, nine more in September. 

So, who could be season’s Baby Giraffe?

Now, for the analysis. I’ll focus on players who have some combination of favorable conditions, including strong underlying data, relatively low roster rates, recently increased playing time, strong team context, and near team favorable matchups.

Really quickly, I think Jac Caglianone is in the midst of a fits and starts breakout this season, and I am beyond excited to draft him everywhere I can next season, almost regardless of price.

But okay, got that out of my system. Let’s look at five hitters you can actually add today. 

Tyler O’Neill: My colleague Jeff Zimmerman’s weekend Waiver Wire report covered three players named Tyler, but somehow, not enough managers have been adding Tyler O’Neill. The absolute best of the three named Tylers (not to disparage Mahle, Tolbert, and Stephenson). 

Tyler Biceps as I’ll now refer to him is notoriously streaky, especially in the home run department. Check out his rolling home run chart over the last six seasons. Also note that he’s in the midst of his first true spike in a long time. And he’s hit fourth for the Orioles in five consecutive games. 

O’Neill has seen his fast swing rate plummet from being above 50% in 2024 with the Red Sox to below 20% this season. 

But there is hope. He still pulls the ball in the air at an elite level and he’s still massive. Plus, he’s only 9% rostered in CBS leagues and 3% rostered in Yahoo. In deep leagues, this is a potentially massive add who can likely still be had for pennies. 

Moises Ballesteros: Another post-deadline playing time darling, Ballesteros, as reported by Zimmerman, has started every game since the trade. He has only four hits in that span, sure, but he should be catcher eligible by this weekend at the latest. At 22 years old, there could really be something left in this bat, and he’s been hitting fifth or sixth for the new look Angeles. Plus, the Angels are projected to face right handed starting pitchers in seven of their next eight contests, which bodes well for the lefty Ballesteros. If you need a catcher, you can do worse. He’s 23% rostered in CBS leagues, but is on just 4% of rosters in Yahoo leagues.

Cam Smith: At 41% rostered in CBS and 16% rostered in Yahoo, Smith has perhaps the highest potential ceiling of anyone in this group, which he has demonstrated this season with a peak rolling wOBA (his best five periods of six game windows this season) of .700. 

The 23-year-old has started in four of the Astros’ last six games and has been hitting in the bottom third of the order. But with 99th percentile average bat speed, little behind him on the bench, and a playoff berth on the line, he could shoot into the top five with a strong week. And, with his reverse splits, the right-handed Smith is lined up to face right-handed starters in the team’s next seven games.

Luis Rengifo: Jeff Zimmerman summed up Rengifo’s hot streak coming out of the weekend, noting how the veteran has “started 13 straight games while batting .324/.418/.441 (2 HR, 3 SB, 80 PA) since joining the Padres.” ‘Gifo is striking out (12%) nearly as much as he walks (10%) this season, and has a peak wOBA stretch above .700, like the aforementioned Smith. He is less than 20% owned in CBS and Yahoo leagues and is especially valuable in Yahoo, where he has 2B, 3B, and OF eligibility. 

Spencer Torkelson: The most rostered name in this piece at 57% in CBS leagues and 48% in Yahoo leagues, Tork has reached 20 home runs yet again, but is 50 points of OPS off of his 2025 season and is slightly off pace in the counting stats. 

But one more hot streak could put him right back on pace to match his 31 home runs from last season. He certainly has the ability to get that hot. This season, Torkelson is averaging just over a homer per six game rolling period, with peak averages of more than four homers per period. A four banger week off the waiver wire would be a massive return at his current price. 

It is worth noting that his last home run was on July 29, but since that point, he’s hit .395 and cut his K% by 9 points, 

The problem has been that while squaring up 90% of his ground balls has helped boost his BABIP above .500 over this stretch, it’s come at the expense of hitting fly balls. But for Tork, we know it only takes one game for his natural flyball tendencies to kick back into high gear.