Archive for Roto

Did you load up the auction calculator a few weeks ago and see Mason Miller listed as the 20th-best starter? Load it up again today, and you’ll only see Miller on the relievers page. That’s because Miller’s 2024 role is hard to pin down. Last year, the year Miller made his debut, the young right-hander in Oakland started six games and appeared in relief in four. As a starter, he recorded a 3.70 ERA and as a reliever, 4.00. So after only 33.1 IP in 2023 without a clear role defined, what’s a fantasy manager to do?

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Last week I analyzed a few players who stood out to me in a mock draft due to their early selection. Whenever this happens, I like to dig in to see what I can learn. This week I’ll keep the party going with three more offensive players I was surprised to see going so early.

*NOTE: All ADP values come from The NFBC, where there have been 61 drafts as of this writing.

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OF – Adolis García (ADP: 44.30, Min: 24, Max: 65)

The auction calculator has the Texas outfielder ranked as the 17th-best player at the position. In front of him are tried and true players like George Springer, Bryan Reynolds, and Randy Arozarena. He is also the 46th-best batter overall according to the calculator, so pick 44 isn’t too far off if you assume no pitchers are selected in the first four rounds, but that would be unusual. It seems to me that the price is close to being right but still a little inflated by recency bias from the 2023 playoffs where García hit eight home runs, the most of any player in the postseason. He also slashed .323/.382/.726 while striking out 26.5% of the time. García’s BB% regressed to his typical in the playoffs, but his K% decreased. Take a look:

It would be unreasonable to assume García will hit anywhere over .250 in 2024 or that he will strike out under 26% of the time. This is a great example of Steamer predicting regression. The table also shows a perfect example of a player who went galactic in the playoffs, it happens. Remember when Randy Arozarena hit 10 home runs in the 2020 postseason? The comparison is not an apples-to-apples one by any means, but it’s at least orange to clementine:

I’m not implying that it’s as simple as “Randy Arozarena came back down to earth and so will Adolis García.” Arozarena broke out in that incredible 2020 postseason run and then went 20-20 in 2021 with a .274/.356/.459 slash line. But there’s more data on García than there was on Arozarena when making projections after both of their big postseason performances and I think Steamer has it right.

One last thing to point out is that while García could certainly record over 30 knocks in 2024, he may not be stealing the 13 bases Steamer projects. He only recorded nine in 2023 after recording 25 in 2022. That power/speed threat is what bumped García’s value up in years past and I don’t think the adjustment has been made for 2024. The Rangers, whether due to Bruce Bochy’s arrival or not, stole far fewer bags in 2023 than in years past:

2021: 106 -> 2022: 128 -> 2023: 79

Adolis García is a great pick and the error bars on his 2024 projection likely aren’t very wide. Still, those projections include negative regression and if someone drafting before you wants to disregard that, let them.

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3B – Royce Lewis (ADP: 43.08, Min: 15, Max: 110)

Imagine someone told you there is a young third baseman who is projected for 28 home runs, 13 steals, and a .269/.336/.481 slash line and his name is not Gunnar Henderson. They told you he has recorded only 239 major league plate appearances, but they were good ones, and he hit 15 home runs, stole six bases, and slashed .309/.372/.548. Oh, and that when he made it to the major leagues, he struck out just barely above league average, 23.0% (league average: 22.7%). You would be frothing! Now, imagine someone told you this player is projected for 617 plate appearances by Steamer even though he’s never even recorded half of that before, and you’d become skeptical. Scroll through his NBC Sports Injury Page and you’ll become even more so. You don’t have to read much more, you could just listen to Sleeper and the Bust and hear them discuss Lewis’ ceiling appeal, but injury risk floor. Even still, here are some data points to prepare you for seeing his early ADP during your draft prep:

• His auction calculator position rank is 5th behind Manny Machado and in front of Yandy Díaz.
• He did not slug anywhere south of .500 in AA, AAA, or the major leagues in 2023.
• He worked fastballs for a 7.6 pVal (PitchInfo), sliders for 5.7, and only really struggled against the curveball (-3.5).
• He is the everyday third baseman for the Twins and is projected to bat second

What’s not to like? Well…the injury risk. “But, what’s not to like about candy?”, the dentist asks you as the drill starts up and goes “zzziirrmmhmmm!!!”

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1B – Christian Encarnacion-Strand (ADP: 127.75, Min: 74, Max: 225)

There are so many young players going in early rounds this season offseason. It feels like more than usual. But with players like Gunnar Henderson, Corbin Carroll, Michael Harris II, and Bobby Witt Jr. seeming like sure shots in 2024, why not? The game has skewed young the past few years and it’s not hard to believe that CES can continue the trend. However, who do you think played the most games at first base for the Reds last season?!

Games Started at First Base – Cincinnati Reds (2023)

• Spencer Steer – 53 GS
• Joey Votto – 44 GS
• Christian Encarnacion-Strand – 32

Joey Votto’s option was declined for a reason, the Reds have some depth at first. But who will stick there defensively? Ok, you win RosterResource, Steer moves to left field and CES takes third. Fine! Is he good enough offensively to stick? He slashed .270/.328/.477 in 63 major league games in 2023 and is expected by Steamer to slash it again (.271/.329/.491). Steamer is lower on his playing time than it is with Royce Lewis (above). CES’s 130-game projection is not a 162-game projection and the difference makes me nervous. He did strike out 28.6% of the time in the major leagues, his base running (BsR) and defense (Def) produced negative numbers, and he walked only .2 times for every time he struck out. Even still, his actual stats didn’t lie:

• AVG: .270 xAVG: .268
• SLG: .477 xSLG: .476
• wOBA: .346 xwOBA: .347

Ok, so what’s his specialty? Power? Speed? Batting average? None, really, but that’s why he’s the 11th-best first baseman for 2024 according to our auction calculator. He does a little bit of everything, or at least, he’s expected to.

You walk into a coffee shop, it’s one of those fancy yet casual ones that looks like it belongs in Europe. You take a look at the menu and you’re astounded. “I’d never pay that much for a cup of coffee. I don’t care what it’s got in it!” you say to yourself as you step out onto the street, thinking just a little bit differently about yourself, the world, and your appetite for afternoon coffee.

As the doorbell jingles and you consider your options for a cheaper caffeine fix, you can’t help but notice that everyone coming out of this new, fancy coffee shop looks so…happy. They’ve got cold drinks, hot drinks, drinks you’ve never seen before and you start to wonder, “Is it worth it?…Nah!”, and you head back to your office for a cup out of that grimy old pot that’s been cooking since Jane got in at 7:45 this morning. But, what will happen tomorrow? Maybe you’ll cough up a few extra dollars just to see what all the fuss is about. After all, you’re outgoing, or at least, you can be.

Is this season the season you drop the metaphorical tried and true and go for something a little more exciting? There are a few hitters who I did not think would go as early as they did in a recent mock draft I participated in, but they did. Like the fancy, more expensive cup of coffee, I’m wondering if I’m missing out and will use this article to dive deeper, seeking to answer the question, is it worth it?

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I know we’ve been having fun, giving out our totally officials awards at catcher, first base, second base, third base, and shortstop, but things are about to take a dark turn.

It might be sad, it might be depressive but writing this has again put me in a bad place; a place filled with bad trades, bad stats, and absolutely, positively, no (NO!) fun. Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve had appetizers at catcher, first base, second base, and shortstop, but now it’s time to look upward for some protein (powder).

Looking for someone who ascends to heights normally only dreamt of by those who grew up wearing Husky brand jeans. Arching high into the sky, going even further beyond the Chili’s down on Maple where many of his lookalike peers will go to celebrate if they beat Mitch’s Hardware on Wednesday night.

A player whose ability to hit bombs is matched only by his resemblance to someone who looks like they play in a league where there’s a keg at each base.

The People’s Hero. Every year he rises up (hopefully, to see if that waitress is ever going to bring out more ranch for our Texas cheese fries), and every year we recognize him.

Ladies & Gentlemen: The Thirdies Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to what was recently named the #2 fantasy award show in the nation according to people and pets who live in my house. Don’t act like you’re not impressed.

We’ve already handed out our prestigious awards at catcher, first base, and second base, so let’s keep it moving around the horn. But first, since children need to be taken to the library, I’m afraid that you’re going to have to come up with your own dated Fifty Cent references – I simply have no time.

Ja-Ja-Ja G-Unit – It’s the Shorties!

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There are all kinds of ways to measure the effectiveness of a pitch. Pitch Values (pVals) or “Pitch Type Linear Weights” give us a sense of, from the glossary, “…the changes in average run expectancy from one count to another”.

while the changes in run expectancy between an 0-0 count and a 0-1 or 1-0 count are obviously very small, when added up over the course of the season, you can get an idea of which pitch a hitter was best against.

pVals are not predictive and they don’t explain the true talent or raw characteristics of an individual pitch the same way Stuff+ or other pitch models can, but it does tell us what actually happened. Now, imagine that! You can dig into the specifics of pVals on the glossary page but for now, let’s celebrate this season’s greatest pVals.

Part one will look at four-seam fastballs and cutters. Part two (coming soon) will focus on sinkers and splitters.

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Attention! Attention! All seat fillers need to get up and please move outside to the concourse. Immediately. We’ve made it through the Catchies and the Firsties but we’re about to get going again and we just can’t have any of you normies accidentally getting on camera and making everyone at home feel sad.

Thank you for your service and please collect your payment from the front – which may or may not be a swag bag filled with all of the Kylie Jenner lip glosses that were banned by the FDA because the test animals started sprouting extra noses she really wanted to donate for all of her loyal fans.

It’s the Secondies!

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Thank you, thank you. Welcome back to the next round of fantasy baseball awards that nearly no one was asking for! I’m talking, of course, about the Firsties! The Firsties first came into our lives over 40 years ago and we here at the Academy would like to thank all of you for continuing to care super, duper, deeply about these fake awards. But before we get into these hotly contested awards, the committee would like to make one small announcement, as there seems to have been some earlier confusion about acceptable levels of shenanigans.

Just so we’re crystal – we are currently operating at a 0% Shenanigan Level. Not 10%, not 5%, not even 1%. Zero. Anyone not adhering to said policy will be asked to go inside and stop letting the sun warm your face for a minimum of one month because it’s time to get cereal. Super cereal.

Let the show continue – it’s the Firsties! Read the rest of this entry »

Bigger bases in 2023 allowed for more stolen bases overall this year. More players reached the 20+ stolen base mark than ever before in the Statcast era. In fact, the 51 players who reached 20+ SBs in 2023, more than doubled last year’s mark of 24. The increase in stolen base output is explainable, MLB changed a rule. The flux of home runs in the past few years, however, is not as explainable, though many have tried to explain it with an analysis of the make-up of the actual baseball. But, both of those statistics are up individually and in combination.

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