The 3rd Annual Thirdies!

We’ve had appetizers at catcher, first base, second base, and shortstop, but now it’s time to look upward for some protein (powder).

Looking for someone who ascends to heights normally only dreamt of by those who grew up wearing Husky brand jeans. Arching high into the sky, going even further beyond the Chili’s down on Maple where many of his lookalike peers will go to celebrate if they beat Mitch’s Hardware on Wednesday night.

A player whose ability to hit bombs is matched only by his resemblance to someone who looks like they play in a league where there’s a keg at each base.

The People’s Hero. Every year he rises up (hopefully, to see if that waitress is ever going to bring out more ranch for our Texas cheese fries), and every year we recognize him.

Ladies & Gentlemen: The Thirdies

And the Thirdie for “Gunnar Henderson Couldn’t Hit Lefties But It Didn’t Really Matter – Yet” goes to…Gunnar Henderson!

My concerns entering last season were more about price and risk than skill set, with Henderson entering his first full year in the majors all covered in fantasy friendliness.

To the archives!

Henderson was just a top-100ish hitter in the first half but top-25 in the second, and while his HR, RBI, and SB per PA rates stayed in a similar range from half to half, the biggest jump in his value came from scoring runs, going from a .091 R per PA that was far below average to a .161 R per PA that was elite.

But I’ll save you the time of going to his player page to answer the big question; no, Henderson did not learn how to hit lefties in the majors, slashing .209/.293/.324 over 167 PA, with a .618 OPS and .276 wOBA. Not good! But also – it didn’t really matter for his fantasy value.

It did matter for his lineup spot, though, dropping from 1st/2nd to 5th/6th when facing the wrong-handers. If you could again promise me 625 PA mostly at the top of the lineup, then sure; but right now, his third-roundish price feels super risky. And if Henderson continues his epic struggles vs LHP, who even knows how Baltimore will ultimately handle the situation?

If only we had a rational allegory to guide us along this tricky path…If only…only…only…(barely intelligible whisper).

Whoops – wrong kind of whisper.

And the Thirdie for “Listen, I’m Also Super Hyped About Royce Lewis But Can’t We Just Simmer Down Now?” goes to…Royce Lewis!

How is it Royce Lewis is still only 24 when he’s technically been around forever? I haven’t crunched the numbers yet but that seems like it shouldn’t be possible and someone should probably look into it.

There is no denying that Lewis’s tools are electric; he’s shown it at virtually every stop he’s ever made as a pro. Unfortunately, he’s also a glass cannon on par with Gengar and the siren’s song of the IL seems to be ever-calling, with Lewis pulling a total of fewer than 500 PA over the past three seasons. But hey, sometimes glass cannons don’t break (I guess?) and if Lewis actually pumps out a full season, I’d bet big on the over of him earning his draft price.

Spending a premium pick on a Minnesota Twin with a vast injury history? If only we had a rational allegory to guide us along this tricky path…If only…only…only…(barely intelligible whisper).

Like I wasn’t doing it again – hopefully, you made your day better by watching all of it.

And the Thirdie for “And the 2024 Thirdie for Don’t Pay For Last Year’s Production goes to…Ha-Seong Kim!” goes to…Ha-Seong Kim 김하성!

We peer far into the future for this award, all the way to the 2024 Thirdies, looking for that special player that will make everyone drone on (rightly!) about not paying for last year’s production. Don’t do it! I like Kim too, with his multi-positional goodness littering my rosters and making me shout at clouds over his value in point leagues. But are we really doing an 80 ADP with a #50 max for a guy with Cronenworth-esque power who got a grand majority of his fantasy value from the 38 SB that blew up on the heels of the pro-theft rule changes implemented in 2023? Are we sure?

In a pre-rule change world where stolen bases had been fading into obscurity for years, Kim’s speed-focused, well-rounded fantasy profile would still be very valuable with players knowing they wouldn’t be able to rely on finding bags later in the draft or on the waiver wire. But those days are gone and the crowd’s drafting strategies will necessarily change from those of the past.

I know that I, for one, won’t be stressing much about locking down speed early because of how many more will likely be available in the second half of drafts. Perhaps not as extremely as last season but still; there were 19 players with a post-250 ADP (using FantasyPros average of five platforms) in 2023 that finished with at least 20 SB, and I suspect finding speed late will still be a thing in 2024:

Given the current fantasy landscape, Kim’s carrying tool from 2023 won’t be nearly as shiny in 2024, making a top-80 price way too high for me.

And the Thirdie for “I Don’t Think People Have Ever Really Forgiven Alex Bregman for Being a Rotten Cheater, How Else Can We Rationally Explain His Falling ADP?” goes to…Alex Bregman!

After skipping the numbers crunch for Royce Lewis, I had enough time to run them through the ol’ electric noodle for Bregman. Let’s see what the computer spits out:

Now Beginning Facts Report:

– Alex Bregman was a top-50 hitter in 2022 and then ran a 78 ADP for 2023

– Alex Bregman was a top-40 hitter in 2023 and is currently running a 103 ADP for 2024

Now Ending Facts Report.

We just don’t like him, right? That has to be it. Which is fine, I guess. But Bregman puts per-PA rates that are notably consistent while piling up PAs for what is one of baseball’s best lineups year in and year out. And if he doesn’t get seriously hurt, I expect we’ll see more of the same in 2024.  But please, feel free to draft Ha-Seong Kim 20 picks higher.

And the Thirdie for “Wow, Looks Like Manny Machado is Totally Washed and No One Should Take the Massive Discount” goes to…Manny Machado!

Manny Machado was so, so bad in 2023, finishing outside of the top 50 hitters after a universal top-20 draft price. Just awful.

While Machado may have been a PA-machine for his entire career, he only barely reached 600 PA in 2023, which combined with his substandard performance and now ancient age of 31 years old makes it pretty clear that his inevitable (and swift) decline has already begun.

Just look at this graph!

And this one!

Given the above, even Machado’s 66 ADP seems outrageously high, let alone a minimum pick at #28. Hell’s bells, even those who got him around his max of #128 should probably be a little nervous about that old body slowly collapsing into dust.

I don’t care that Machado has spent the better part of a decade pumping out seasons playing 95% of games, or that his 2023 was hampered by a broken hand early and an elbow injury late. Excuses, ya snowflakes! Machado is soft and simply crumpled beneath the weight of $350 million. This is what happened.

So, please, no one draft Machado with a top-50 pick – I care too much about you.

And the Thirdie for “The Matt Stairs Memorial Award For Looking Most Like a Professional Men’s League Softball Player” goes to…Jake Burger!

Mmm, mmm, MMmm!…that’s some hot meat cooking:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Whoa. Settle down. I get it; you might be thinking to yourself, “Wait a second – did I miss Daniel Vogelbach retiring? BECAUSE HOW IN THE NAME OF BRATWURST COULD ANYONE EVERY TAKE HIS GIANT CROWN???

For the love of the Silver Bullets, how can you deny the champ?

His.

 

 

 

 

 

Name.

 

 

 

 

 

Is.

 

 

 

 

 

Daniel.

 

 

 

 

 

Vogelbach.

 

 

 

 

 

Okay, I get it, I get it. But here’s the thing; this isn’t about lifetime achievements and we play by Highlander Rules when it comes to looking like a beer leaguer. There can only be one and that one has to bring more than a beefy demeanor, an extra smedium jersey, and a bag full of custom bats that were the reason we had to get a retainer from a yard sale for our youngest*.

*Damn it, Tina, I don’t want to get into this again; little Misty will be just fine with the Hamilton boy’s old one. But while my Miken Exclusive Freak U Maxload might be good enough for innings 1-8, how in the hell do you expect me to come through in the ninth without my Easton Ghost Unlimited, hmmm??? Just 50 or 60 rounds of post-game celebratory beers down at the Applebees and that bat pays for itself!

You can’t be all look, no stick, and just expect to win this prestigious award. You also have to mash more than your pregame potatoes and while Vogelbach might still look like the prototype, it was Burger grilling hot buns in 2023:

Okay, well, maybe not all year. Burger (and his 600 ADP btw) finished with 34 HR in 540 PA, even as things got noticeably cooler during his first month after moving south to Miami:

Sure, only three homers in August was disappointing but streakiness kind of comes with the package when dealing with a men’s league cosplayer and Burger’s second-half totals were still solid, with his overall value burnished by a high batting average that definitely wasn’t BABIP influenced.

Burger’s 2024 ADP has necessarily risen but a ~175 ADP still isn’t too shabby considering both his innate power and the peers currently surrounding his range. Y’all can have that milquetoast Ke’Bryan Hayes and his ilk – gimme that beef instead.

Ok, fine…one more:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

He’s never gonna dance again.