Archive for Roto

Bullpen Report: June 26, 2014

-Tonight’s ride on the Hector Rondon rollercoaster went off without a hitch. Rondon induced two groundouts to start the ninth before striking out Danny Espinosa to seal the 5-3 victory for the Cubs against the Nationals. The 14-pitch outing for Rondon is a relief for fantasy owners and Cubs nation alike, especially considering he’s allowed eight earned runs in his past five outings. As for the rest of the bullpen, Neil Ramirez finished off the seventh-inning and Pedro Strop allowed a hit in the eighth, but failed to allow the Nats to capitalize on Adam LaRoche’s bunt single. Rondon, available in ~60% of Yahoo! leagues, is now 9-of-11 in save opportunities with a 3.68 ERA (2.19 FIP) and a 28.4% K%.
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RotoGraphs Audio: The Sleeper and the Bust 06/26/2014

Episode 134

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is now live! Eno Sarris and Nicholas Minnix discuss Taijuan Walker and Erasmo Ramirez; Marco Gonzales; Zack Wheeler; James Shields; Ian Kennedy; Matt Shoemaker; Trevor Rosenthal; Joe Smith and Ernesto Frieri; and J.D. Martinez.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them on our next episode.

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0:52:02

MASH Report (6/26/14)

• Right after I published the MASH Report earlier this week, Andrew Cashner went on the DL for shoulder discomfort.  I look at his pitch data and here is what I found. First, he quit throwing his fastball in the last inning he pitched.

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Ongoing Fire Sale Coverage – Lessons

Last week, I admitted I was conducting something of a fire sale in my FanGraphs staff ottoneu league. This is a big deal for me, I’m usually a harsh opponent of any kind of fire sale – they’re boring (once completed) and rarely pay off half as well as the seller expects. Mike Trout is a rare beast who has elevated everybody’s expectations of a top prospect. Most are like Jason Heyward or Domonic Brown or (gasp) Fernando Martinez – something goes wrong with either health or the skill set and leaves the owner with less than they expected.

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What Else Would You Change, Fantasy Baseball Player?

If you were fantasy baseball’s “King for a Day” or “Queen for a Day,” then what would you do? Just imagine: The entire community must bow to your will. All commissioners are at your command.

I may have opened Pandora’s Box here. We might gain some serious insight into the makeup of some of our fellow readers who are bold enough to comment, particularly if the filter is off.

Last week, I expressed my dissatisfaction with the wins category in our fake baseball games. I wondered aloud if something beyond quality starts or wins plus quality starts, something like a modified version of Pure Quality Starts or Game Score, would do, even if it meant changing other categories to accommodate. I’m hopeful but not blind to the likelihood that something with a binary result like quality starts is most suitable for the standard game.

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David Price’s ERA Hangs in the Balance

David Price works pretty hard to make sure his teammates don’t have to. Price struck out 11 Pirates and walked just one yesterday afternoon, and he barely improved a strikeout-to-walk rate that was already north of 10-to-1. But even with 11 strikeouts, Price still allowed nearly two thirds of his opposing batters to put the ball in play. Every pitcher needs help from his defense, even Price.

Very soon, Price may have new teammates behind him. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported that the Blue Jays, Cardinals, Giants, Indians, and Yankees were heavily scouting Price in his previous start. One thing those teams have in common is that they’re in the playoff hunt this season, which the Rays decidedly are not. At the very least, Price’s 6-7 record can stand to improve no matter where he lands. However, those teams also have several major differences that will likely have an impact on Price’s numbers for the rest of the season. Price is an ace, and there is not a situation in baseball bad enough to make him not so. But the team that Price ends up on could mean the difference between him being a top five starter and a top 15 one.

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Jarred Cosart, Kyle Gibson & Ground Balls Galore

They rank back-to-back in SIERA in the American League over the last 30 days, ranking 13th and 14th, back-to-back in full-season ground ball rate at third and fourth, could afford to throw more strikes and also make batters swing and miss more frequently. Jarred Cosart and Kyle Gibson have quite a bit in common, at least in terms of their results. But of course, they take a different path to actually getting to those results.

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Buying and Selling at Third Base

I can’t say definitively that third base has been more volatile than any other position this season, but it certainly feels like third base has generated more of a roller coaster ride than normal. We’ve seen All-Stars reduced to fringe fantasy players and we’ve seen no-names and retreads act like budding stars. To the objective fantasy baseball observer, this should provide you with opportunity. And sometimes, that requires you to kill your darlings.

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The Best Fantasy Starters of the Past Calendar Year

Last week I took a look at the best fantasy hitters over the past calendar year by running the results of that split through Zach Sanders’ z-score method for calculating fantasy value. The motivation for that post was to make an argument that when voting for All-Stars the second half of the previous season should be considered. I understand that the “Past 1 Calendar Years” split on the leaderboards includes stats that were pre-All-Star break 2013, but…close enough. And I also realize fantasy value doesn’t necessarily equal All-Star, but, again, close enough. I quickly want to highlight the starting pitchers I’d vote into the All-Star game (ten per league) based on their performance over the last 365 in the image below. After that I want to discuss a few guys whose ownership percentage is out of whack with their performance in the past calendar year. Read the rest of this entry »


Relative Waiver Wire: Dylan Bundy, Derek Dietrich

Two different places on the fantasy baseball spectrum, right here. Not much to say besides that before we get to the players, so … let’s get to the players.

P Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles

Ownership: CBS 32% | Yahoo! 6% | ESPN 0.1%

Fantasy owners haven’t forgotten about him just because he’s been rehabbing from June surgery to reconstruct the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. It seems as if there’s a good chance that, when Bundy is ready for major league activation, he joins his club’s bullpen, either initially or eventually, and not its rotation. But hey, rotisserie and head-to-head managers have to seek talent, the attribute likeliest to make a difference for them in their league’s standings.

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