Archive for Roto

Not much injury news over the weekend, sorry.

• A reader asked if Chris Davis may be injured. The short answer for those with little time, probably. Now here is the long answer.

The concern for Davis centers on his low .199 AVG and 17 home runs. He spent spent 15 days on the DL early in the season for a strained abdomen. No other reported news. Before the injury he hit .250/.372/.382. Since returning, he has mainly  seen a huge drop in his AVG, .183/.288/.394. Looking through my injury indicators, his ISO is down from .240 career average to .192. His Contact% is down for 69% to 67%. These values put his HURT value at 155 which is one of the top values among the league regulars. So, yes his is probably still hurt.

The other issue he is dealing with is the shift. In 2013, he had a .425 BABIP with no shift on and a .302 with the shift employed for a difference of .123. So far this season, he is hitting .375 without the shift on and .236 with a shift for a difference of .141. The shift related decline was almost the same overall for each season. This season he is not hitting the ball as hard (probably from the injury), so both BABIP values are down. I would look at Davis as a possible buy low candidate for next season, but expect the batting average to stay low.

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As you read this, I’m knee deep in moving, with a toddler, a pregnant wife, and an intense case of bronchitis. I’m not asking for sympathy!

Until now, Matt Shoemaker has shown us that he’s got a legit curve, splitter, slider combination, but maybe an iffy fastball. He’s not asking your sympathy!

But we all find a way to make due, like I’m writing this as I sweat in bed and the family is taking a load to the new house without me. And it looks like Shoemaker has found a way to make the package work — by throwing the fastball just about as much as any of his other pitches.

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I’ve been a believer in Brian Dozier for quite some time now. Since his breakout around the midway point of last season, Dozier has consistently been one of the most valuable second basemen in fantasy. This year, things only got better, as Dozier started taking more walks and showing much-increased aggressiveness on the basepaths. For a full calendar year, Dozier was an elite fantasy option and five-category contributor, showing no signs of slowing down.

Then July arrived and Dozier came crashing down to earth, with a slash of just .213/.232/.404. The power has still been there, but little else has. There are lots of things to be worried about regarding his performance in July, but none moreso than the figures below:

• April – 19 BB, 26 K
• May – 13 BB, 18 K
• June – 19 BB, 21 K
• July – 1 BB, 21 K

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I own Max Scherzer in three leagues right now. Three different formats, three different sets of rules, and three different places in the standings. And I am working on trading him in not one, but two.

The problem is trying to find the right value. And valuing a guy like Scherzer is not easy.

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On Friday, Jeff Zimmerman published the calculated xBABIP marks using his new equation incorporating Inside Edge data. While we are well aware that we remain far away from a perfect xBABIP equation as some commenters pointed out what’s missing, it’s still a useful metric to analyze. So I have curated a list of hitters whose xBABIP marks are significantly higher than their actuals and could represent good acquisition targets for the final two months of the season.

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Episode 147

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is now live! Jason Collette and Nicholas Minnix discuss, among other things, the Jake Peavy trade; trade rumors (and the fantasy implications of them) involving Matt Kemp, Alex Rios, Josh Willingham, and a host of others; the St. Louis Cardinals’ signing of A.J. Pierzynski; first thoughts on how soon Rusney Castillo will have an impact; Allen Webster versus Brandon Workman; Ian Kennedy’s injury; Billy Butler’s recent surge; Collin McHugh’s return from the DL; the health of a host of other returning players, plus a couple of them on the way out; and of course two-turn hurlers.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them on our next episode.

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After a 13-hour work day, I took a walk through the North Bay suburb of Petaluma—southwest Petaluma to be exact. The sun had set but the sky was still mostly blue, surrounded with red paint above the mountains that surround our valley. I hadn’t had time to check Twitter that day, so when my brother, Ringo, texted me, “Got heeem!” I was hopeful he meant that the San Francisco Giants had acquired David Price.

“Price?” I replied.

“Not those Giants. No, we got your boy: Dan Uggla.”

“He’ll hit.”

“You’re insane.”

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Despite Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer’s best attempts to convince fans otherwise, it seems that Javier Baez will likely be in the majors sooner rather than later. While Hoyer brushes off several recent adjustments made to his roster as being big-picture moves, it’s impossible not to notice the openings being created for major-league playing time for Baez.

Baez recently started seeing time at second base with Triple-A Iowa. If, as Hoyer claims, this was done “to increase his versatility,” the timing is awfully coincidental. All within the space of about a week, the Cubs had Baez start playing at the keystone, designated incumbent second-sacker Darwin Barney for assignment, and tested the waters with Arismendy Alcantara playing center field.

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A rather slow Thursday in the bullpen world, so please accept these few notes on my behalf:

The White Sox closer-by-committee situation may have cleared itself up a bit today, at least for the time being, anyway. Zach Putnam was placed on the 15-day disabled list with shoulder inflammation after recently feeling discomfort. With Putnam shelved, Robin Ventura suggested that “Jake Petricka will pitch in closer situations more often than not.” And Ventura did indeed signal for Petricka this evening with the ChiSox up 5-2 on the Twinkies in a save situation. The right-hander needed just eleven pitches to retire the Twins in order, with two strikeouts, to notch his fifth save of the season.
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Episode 146

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is now live! Eno Sarris and Nicholas Minnix discuss the Joakim Soria and Kendrys Morales trades; trade rumors (and the fantasy implications of them) involving Cliff Lee, Ian Kennedy, Casey McGehee, and a few others; the call-up of Chris Taylor; Darin Ruf versus Ryan Howard; C.J. Cron’s and Wilmer Flores’ returns to the bigs; Shelby Miller versus Carlos Martinez; Dan Haren; and some requested players, comprised of Jacob deGrom, Kyle Hendricks, Gregory Polanco, and James Paxton.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them on our next episode.

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