What Happened To Brian Dozier?
I’ve been a believer in Brian Dozier for quite some time now. Since his breakout around the midway point of last season, Dozier has consistently been one of the most valuable second basemen in fantasy. This year, things only got better, as Dozier started taking more walks and showing much-increased aggressiveness on the basepaths. For a full calendar year, Dozier was an elite fantasy option and five-category contributor, showing no signs of slowing down.
Then July arrived and Dozier came crashing down to earth, with a slash of just .213/.232/.404. The power has still been there, but little else has. There are lots of things to be worried about regarding his performance in July, but none moreso than the figures below:
- April – 19 BB, 26 K
- May – 13 BB, 18 K
- June – 19 BB, 21 K
- July – 1 BB, 21 K
Whoa. What happened here? Furthermore, why is no one talking about it? Check out a Google News search for Dozier; it’s all about the Home Run Derby, him winning the Twins Heart and Hustle award (AKA the “grittiest player in baseball” award), etc. Not a thing about a month-long slump that has seen his plate discipline fly out the window. Well, let’s fix that, shall we?
On the surface, it doesn’t appear that there’s anything drastically different. His batted-ball profile this month is essentially in line with the rest of the season. Combine that knowledge with the fact that he suffered through a .225 BABIP in July, and it certainly seems like he got at least a bit unlucky. Still, what’s going on with that plate discipline?
Last month, Dozier saw 4.50 pitches per plate appearance. However, in July, that figure dropped all the way down to 3.96 pitches per PA. Now it seems like we’re onto something. He has quite clearly been considerably more aggressive this month, and that hasn’t played to his advantage.
Looking further into his pitch data, Dozier has always been a guy that feasts on fastballs. His career .269 AVG and .206 isolated power on fastballs dwarf his numbers against breaking (.198 AVG, .069 ISO) or offspeed (.179 AVG, .098 ISO) pitches.
Here’s where Dozier’s slump starts to come into focus. Keep in mind that there’s still a few games left this month, so these data points will crawl upwards ever so slightly, but it’s still impossible to ignore something like this:
Simple, right? A guy who profiles mainly as a fastball hitter has seen 100+ fewer fastballs this month than last (this graph is also a great visual for understanding just how many fewer pitches Dozier has seen in July). Pair that with the fact that he’s seeing a higher percentage of offspeed pitches this month (13.21%) than in any other month in his three-year major-league career and it makes even more sense.
Here’s where it gets really crazy, though. In a month in which he has seen more offspeed pitches than ever before, Dozier has swung at 49% of them — for comparison, his overall swing percentage for the season is 38.8% — and he’s doing so in ridiculously wild fashion:
To recap, Dozier is seeing more offspeed pitches than ever before, he’s swinging at lots of them, and it doesn’t really matter if they’re anywhere near the zone. A recipe for success this is not. Still, to be perfectly honest, I’m not exactly sure how this should change my view of Dozier going forward.
We’re only looking at one month here, and it was preceded by a full calendar year of well-above average production. However, pitchers are attacking him in a significantly different fashion than they ever have before, and Dozier hasn’t responded well, to put it very kindly. In the end, I’m trying my best not to overreact to a one-month sample, but Dozier clearly needs to make a serious adjustment if pitchers continue to avoid throwing him fastballs.
Scott Strandberg started writing for Rotographs in 2013. He works in small business consultation, and he also writes A&E columns for The Norman Transcript newspaper. Scott lives in Seattle, WA.
Speaking of Dozier — I’m mulling over a trade proposal I received with him in it. I would be giving up Alex Cobb and Matt Carpenter for Dozier, Marcus Stroman, and Francisco Lindor.
It’s a 12 team H2H points keeper league. Cobb has 1 year of keeper eligiblity left in the 11th round, while Matt Carpenter has two years left in the 24th. Dozier, Stroman, and Lindor all have 3 in the 15th, 24th and 19th rounds. I would keep Lindor in my ML spot, potentially over Javier Baez, because I want a guy that will play at SS.
Thoughts? I am hesitant to downgrade on Cobb and potentially Carpenter for a prospect like Lindor, particularly if I have someone like Baez already around.
Given your screen name, how can you pass on that?
But seriously, if you can keep Lindor and Baez I’d do it, and if you can’t I wouldn’t. Everything I’ve read says Lindor’s going to be better IRL than for fantasy (not to say he won’t be fantasy-good too).
Isn’t any player who is good at defense, by definition better IRL than at fantasy? Unless you’re one of those wacky cats leagues that use errors or Field%..
Since the HR derby, he is hitting .125/.167/.250 in 42 PAs with zero walks. Prior to the derby in July, he was hitting .278/.281/.519 in 57 PAs and had his only walk of the month. It doesn’t explain the month-long lack of walks, and they are two very small samples, but he wouldn’t be the first guy to have the derby mess up his swing/approach.
Dozier’s 68 PA’s 6/25 to 7/10: .156/.191/.234
Dozier’s 42 PA’s 7/18 to 7/27: .125/.167/.250
He’s been terrible for over a month now except for one series in Colorado before the break in which the Twins piled on 24 runs in 3 games and Dozier had 6 hits, 2 doubles and 2 homers.
I’m honestly surprised it took this long for pitchers to start bombarding him with offspeed stuff.
I know its a boring answer, but SSS? Look at Trout’s monthly splits this season. Specifically K/BB.
Prior to July, his BB% was 13.9%, which would be tied with McCutchen for 8th in MLB right now out of 156 qualified hitters. His 1% BB% in July was tied for 173rd out of 175. That’s a pretty significant change, regardless of sample size.
Interesting facts from researching this, Chase Headley walked zero times in July in 88 PAs, Ian Kinsler walked 1 time in 100 PAs.
So where do AL only league owners look for options until Dozier makes the proper adjustments? I traded Longoria for Dozier a month ago largely because my league uses walks as one of its categories. The Runs, HRs, and SBs coupled with the walks helped offset his low BA.
Enrique Hernandez? Dustin Ackley? Pick up Jose Ramirez and hope ACab’s back problems re-surface (and Lindor doesn’t get called up)?
There’s always Beckham, lol. All kidding aside, the landscape for 2B looks bleak.
It might be worthwhile to just ride Dozier out with those options.
Dozier’s never been a BA/OBP player, he’s a MI guy who can give 15-20 HR and SBs.
Thoughts on a trade of Dozier for Lance Lynn? I need pitching help and already have Cano at 2B
go for it, it’s a fair trade both sides involved.
Another explanation is that the “breakout” was never real and now he’s returned to his true talent. If you examined the data during the “breakout”, it simply did not add up. In plate discipline, he was swinging at fewer balls in the zone and connecting with more balls outside the zone (the Chase Headley/Moustakas method) … and that somehow improved his overall play and made his walk rate almost double? Meanwhile, his avg. fly ball distance did not improve yet he magically doubled his HR/FB because pitchers kept serving up meatballs he could yank (zero oppo… zero!). Clearly, it didn’t add up under honest scrutiny, but people wanted to believe it because he had produced “for a calendar year”.
Not saying this is the only reason, but it probably also doesnt help that a few weeks ago he had a semi-decent looking line up around him, Mauer, Morales and Willingham all batting behind him. Mauer is injured yet again, Willingham has been pretty awful for the last month and Morales wasnt doing much of anything before he was traded. I think pitchers look at the Twins lineup of AAAA players and know Dozier is the only guy that can do real damage.
And sometimes when players find themselves in such an anemic lineup, they try too hard to carry the offense.
Dozier’s OBP before last year was never good, but he doubled his walk rate last year, which portended the trend in an even higher walk rate this year. That’s what makes the one walk in July so peculiar.
But it’s one month and as the season grinds on, lots of players forget to do the things–like take an extra pitch–that helped them achieve success earlier.
Let’s see if it continues before we dismiss the calender year between June 2013 and 2014 as a fluke.
And though this batted ball distance isn’t great, like Granderson he’s a dead pull hitter, which works well at Target Field–the LF porch there is easier to reach than RF and CF.
Interesting read. I just got offered Billy Butler and Dozier for James Shields in my keeper league. Having trouble deciding.
What does this mean, if anything, for Dozier’s long term value? I have him at $1 for 3 years, which is probably the best contract in my league. I can swap him for one year of elite pitching (Felix) that will probably boost my chances of winning the league this year from “likely” to “inevitable.” Are we concerned enough to risk three years of production?
5 BB in his last 5 games since you posted this article. I wonder if Brian read your article.
Haha I know! That is exactly why I was careful to caution people against overreacting too much to the one-month sample, even if that one-month sample had lots of red flags in it. He needed to make a serious adjustment, but it appears at the moment that he’s making it.
April – 19 BB, 26 K
May – 13 BB, 18 K
June – 19 BB, 21 K
July – 1 BB, 21 K
———————-
August- 25 BB, 18 K
I guess he’s fixed.
I don’t found this website by searching for “what is wrong with Brian Dozier”. He’s ranked 1149 over last 14 days in Yahoo Fantasy and
6/39 AB 3 Runs, 2RBI, 7 Times on Base with and AVG .154 and on OBP .261.
I’m about to drop him as this is playoff time and I can’t wait for him to come around.
Any suggestions for replacements?