Archive for Roto

It’s second base week on RotoGraphs and that gives me the opportunity to perform the first review of my 2015 Pod Projection breakdowns. Anthony Rendon enjoyed a breakout year in both real and fantasy baseball in 2014 and given his previous top prospect pedigree, was then highly valued heading into this season. At the time of my Pod Projection, Rendon was being drafted 13th overall in NFBC leagues. Unfortunately, a knee injury that was supposed to only keep him out for a week or two to begin the season dragged on and on. He didn’t make his 2015 debut until early June and then missed another month with a quad strain. Ultimately, he finished ranked 35th in value…among just the second basemen!

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Mitch Moreland had a career year in 2015. He only matched his previous high in home runs (23), but his AVG, OBP, SLG, 2B, and RBI totals were all the best of his six-year career. He only needed 132 games to set a new high in AB with 471, but his 515 PA were actually only second-highest for him. Was it real? Can he repeat or even grow as he enters his age-30 season?

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For the first time this year, I decided to compare my Pod Projections to Steamer and discuss the players we disagreed on most. Of the hitters we both projected, it was clear I was much more optimistic than Steamer on the whole. However, for Jose Abreu I was actually significantly more pessimistic.

In the review of this series, I will be including my original Pod Projection, and Steamer counting stat projections extrapolated over the same number of plate appearances that I had projected. However, I included Steamer’s actual PA projection in that column. Also included are the player’s 2015 stats, plus the counting stats extrapolated over the number of PA I projected.

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Miguel Cabrera hasn’t just been one of baseball’s best hitters over the last ten years, he has also remained amazingly consistent. As fantasy owners, we’re used to our top picks disappointing us, but Cabrera has never posted a wOBA below .374 in a full season. And yet, this was a season of firsts for Cabrera, which despite an above his career average .413 wOBA, resulted in a loss for all those who paid top dollar for his services on draft day.

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Episode 286

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris breakdown the World Series and get Eno’s prediction. Who are the key players on each side? How does KC’s contact-heavy game play vs. NYM’s power pitching-poor defense mix? Would you rather have the KC SPs or NYM RPs? And more. Then they discuss the AFL, going on now in Arizona, and highlight some guys they’re looking forward to seeing in two weeks including: Gary Sanchez, Alex Blandino, Dylan Bundy, A.J. Reed, and more.

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Yesterday, I recapped my preseason starting pitcher strikeout rate upside target list using my xK% equation. So naturally today I’ll review the other side of that list, those pitchers who posted strikeout rates well below their xK% marks, which suggested potential downside for the 2015 season.

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Review season continues this week and I begin by analyzing how well my xK% equation performed at identifying starting pitchers with strikeout rate upside in 2015. When I originally created my upside target group, it wasn’t a straight list of the starters whose xK% marks most exceeded their actual K% marks, but rather the more interesting names that were fantasy relevant that appeared at or near the top.

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Frankly, the best thing we can say about Wilson Ramo’s 2015 season is that he stayed healthy and managed over 500 PAs. He ended the season with a .231/.260/.360 line with 16 doubles and 15 home runs which were a decided disappointment for those of us who had invested in his offensive skills.

As a 23-year-old catcher in 2011, Ramos opened eyes with 15 bombs in 435 Plate Appearances to go with a .267 BA. His .177 ISO that season was encouraging and matched his 2010 mark in Triple A.  Ramos’s K rate of 17.5% was supported by his Minor League career numbers and was in line with a 22 game stint he had in 2010 in his introduction to the Majors. Sandwiched between the 2012 and 2014 seasons that were marred by injury, Ramos clubbed 16 HR’s and batted .272 in just 303 PAs in 2013 with an 81% contact rate and a 40.7% hard hit rate. No wonder he was considered a future hitting star at the catching position and some had predicted that he could approach 30 HRs with a full season of PAs.

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Matt Wieters is a free agent, and as Mike Podhorzer explained, the Orioles appear unlikely to extend him a qualifying offer. The team could still bring Wieters back on a new contract, but I expect them to move on in part because of the less-expensive in-house option, Caleb Joseph.

Joseph does not fit the mold of a prospect who would inherit the job of a departing veteran. In fact, he is less than a month younger than Wieters. However, because of a lengthy minor league career, Joseph has just two years of major league service time and remains under team control with the Orioles in 2016 for very little salary. Meanwhile, while Joseph does not share the offensive potential that once made Wieters such a prized prospect, he does offer the team enough defensive value to merit a full-time job.

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In the majority of fantasy leagues, Jonathan Lucroy was likely valued as a top five catcher. His strong batting average, respectable power, and best of all, consistently high plate appearance totals, made him a top option at the position. But as the books closed on the 2015 season, Lucroy finished just 12th, the last man to accrue any value in 12-team mixed leagues that start just one backstop. We’re used to catchers disappointing, which is why many fantasy owners choose to “punt” the position and just go cheap, refusing to pay the market rates for the elite. So let’s find out what went wrong.

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