Last week inaugurated what will likely be several weeks of depth chart discussions in the form of playing time battles. RotoGraphs staff will discuss and assess noteworthy battles for playing time and/or starting gigs for position players and, separately, pitchers. Here, specifically, this author will investigate the San Diego Padres‘ pitching situations.

#4 and #5 Starters

Behind James Shields, Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner, the Padres’ rotation looks feeble. At least six arms could see a handful of starts — and, to avoid burying the lede, few warrant attention in standard mixed leagues. But, alas, playing time battles are playing time battles. In order according to FanGraphs’ depth charts:

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Through the first half of last season, the A’s ranked 2nd in baseball in starting pitcher’s ERA. They were also tied for 1st in HR allowed per 9 and second in the AL in GB%. Offensively, the A’s were 5th in the AL in runs scored, entering the All-Star break with a +44 run differential. And a -9 win differential. So what happened?

Well, they were terrible defensively. They ranked 29th in Defensive Runs Above Average and UZR and led the AL in unearned runs. With catcher Stephen Vogt rating as 2015’s 8th worst pitch framer, it’s a wonder the rotation fared as well as it did. And the bullpen? Is a -0.1 WAR something you might be interested in? Me neither.  

Out of contention by the trade deadline, Billy Beane traded Scott Kazmir, Ryan Cook, Tyler Clippard, and Eric O’Flaherty. Then in the offseason, he exiled Jesse Chavez to Canada, Evan Scribner to the Mariners, Drew Pomeranz to the Padres, and lost Dan Otero on waivers and Edward Mujica to free agency. Caught all that? 9 pitchers, most of whom started 2015 in the East Bay, gone.

But you know the good news? The A’s never tear it down completely. In rebuilding his pitching staff, Beane assembled an intriguing posse of youngsters and Methuselastic veterans you might not recognize if you were sitting next to one on BART. Your league mates definitely won’t either.

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Starting Rotation

The top of the Royals rotation is set with Ian Kennedy, Yordano Ventura and Edinson Volquez taking the first three spots. After those two, the rotation gets a little fuzzy for the 4th and 5th spots. Unless an injury happens to one of the first three, I think five other pitchers may cycle into these final two spots: Kris Medlen, Danny Duffy, Chris Young, Kyle Zimmer and Miguel Almonte. I listed them in the order I think they will get a chance to start. Here is my take on how I think it will shake out for each pitcher.

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Perhaps you’ve heard, we’re evaluating playing time battles in preparation for the 2016 fantasy baseball season. We’re still at the beginning of the process, but you can go to this post to catch up on all our previous analysis. Now, onto the Philadelphia Phillies whose pitching staff can be epitomized by a shrug.

The Rotation

After suffering through a miserable 2015 season, the Phillies look to be on the rebound. Their starters produced just 4.3 WAR – worst in the majors. Their 5.23 ERA barely outperformed the Rockies (5.27 ERA). Of course, the Phillies didn’t have to regularly pitch at Coors Field. In any case, they’ll be better this year.

Only three regular contributors will return, Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, and Adam Morgan. None of them have a guaranteed job. Let’s start with the two guys who are locks for a role.

Jeremy Hellickson and Charlie Morton are the staff veterans. Hellickson is a solid mid-rotation rebound gamble. After a tough start to his tenure in Arizona, he settled in to post a 3.61 ERA (4.14 xFIP) in the second half of the season.

Morton’s a ground ball specialist who has trouble staying on the field. When he’s right, he’ll produce a peripheral supported sub-4.00 ERA. Both Morton and Hellickson are merely innings eaters, but the team needs that more than an ace.

Behind the pseudo-veterans lurks Nola. It would take a minor disaster for him to lose his claim upon a rotation job, but it’s a risk. Nola, 23 in June, was the Phillies first round pick in 2014 (seventh overall). He made quick work of the minors and showed well in the majors through 13 starts.

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Today inaugurates what will likely several weeks of depth chart discussions. RotoGraphs staff will discuss and assess noteworthy battles for playing time and/or starting gigs for position players and, separately, pitchers. Here, specifically, this author will investigate the Toronto Blue Jays‘ rotation and bullpen situations.

The Rotation

Frankly, it seems clear-cut at the top. Marcus Stroman isn’t an ace, contemporarily speaking, but his blend of sharp command and ground ball tendencies make him an attractive mid-rotation option. R.A. Dickey, the former National League Cy Young Award winner, hasn’t generated much in the way of fantasy value in standard leagues but, nonetheless, slots in as the team’s #2.

I wouldn’t say it gets dicier from there, but: it gets dicier from there.

Marco Estrada is, presumably, the Blue Jays’ #3. And while a two-year, $26 million contract would certainly warrant it, keep in mind that Estrada hasn’t stuck in the rotation for a full season — ever. Well, except in 2013, he did, but he only started 21 games. Why has he bounced back and forth, you ask?

You didn’t ask, because you already know. The answer screams in your face: Estrada has allowed 92 home runs in 99 starts. His 1.42 HR/9 as a starter is the second-highest among those who have thrown at least 550 innings since 2011. If the Blue Jays want to let their opponents to go punch for punch with Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, they found their man.

Problem is, the solutions aren’t significantly better. J.A. Happ comes off his best season, during which he scraped together one-third of his career WAR (wins above replacement) in about one-sixth of his career playing time. Fractions, man. Anyway, he shaved off a big chunk of the walk rate (BB%) that made him largely ineffective for the majority of his rather long and decidedly lackluster career, and it propped him up.

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Yesterday, we looked in on one of the top closer-setup tandems outside of the Bronx. Zach Britton and Darren O’Day are the best at what they do. As it turns out, the Marlins also have a couple elite relievers who are the very best at something – A.J. Ramos and Carter Capps.

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With the departure of Francisco Rodriguez, the Milwaukee closer role is Will Smith’s to lose. Smith took big steps last season improving his K%, BB%, ERA (or FIP, if that’s more your cup of tea), HR/9, and K:BB%. Smith is trending in the right direction with all of these metrics.

The main reason it would seem that Smith has improved so well is his pitch selection. Smith started using his fastball less, particularly his 2-seamer, and increased the usage of his slider, which is by far his most effective pitch. Outside of 2012, his wSL has been his most positive pitch, combining for 16.1 runs above average for the past three years. His fastball, on the other hand, has graded out at negative 21.4 over the past four years. Could he become the next Andrew Miller?

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For the second straight season, Minnesota Twins closer Glen Perkins suffered a second half swoon. This one was more pronounced, as the left-hander carried a 1.21 ERA into the All Star Break and a 7.32 mark afterward.

The decline came in pretty much every facet of Perkins’ game. He threw 37.1 innings in the first half but just 19.2 after the break due to neck and back issues that led some to question his conditioning. Nevertheless, even when he was healthy enough to pitch, he was getting blasted. Check out his opponents’ hitting splits:

First Half: .188/.217/.246 (.206 wOBA)
Second Half: .356/.394/.674 (.447)

They slugged .674! SIX. SEVENTY. FOUR. That’s 25 points higher than what NL MVP Bryce Harper slugged. Of course, any kind of physical issue dealing with the core is going to sap a pitcher’s effectiveness, and make his stuff much worse than it’d usually be. Read the rest of this entry »

When the eighth and ninth innings roll around, the Orioles will turn to a familiar pair of relief aces. Zach Britton just pitched the best season of his life. In one regard, he is the best player in all of Baseball Land. His setup man, Darren O’Day, is also the very best in his own quirky way.

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As we creep ever closer to the 2016 season, there’s still one position we haven’t covered from 2015. For the final time, we look back at the season past and determine which players were the most valuable at each position. We enter the magical realm of the bullpen, where no man should venture lest he get bubble gum placed atop his hat.

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