Giants’ Playing Time Battles: Pitching

The Giants’ biennial odd-year failures are well documented. By now, Giants fans know that if it’s an odd-year, they can safely leave town on Columbus Day weekend, volunteer at their NPR affiliate’s fall pledge drive, or spend a weekend up in Santa Rosa picking delightfully fragrant organic Braeburn apples in-season. But odd-year apple seasons bring Brian Sabean neither respite nor rich phytonutrients. For it’s a time when baseball’s longest-tenured GM must roll up his sleeves and construct yet another World Series winner.

This past October, Sabean set his sights on filling a gaping hole in center field and rebuilding a rotation that ranked 25th in WAR. So he signed Denard Span, Johnny Cueto, and Jeff Samardzija to multi-year contracts, undoubtedly improving the team in 2016. And that’s more or less it. Needs addressed.

From a fantasy perspective, there isn’t so much a battle for the final rotation spot as the inevitability that injuries to Matt Cain or others will open the door for Chris Heston and conceivably a few promising young pitchers. With that in mind, we take a look at those pitchers vying for the final spot in the Giants’ rebuilt rotation.

5th Starter

Remember 2011 when Matt Cain was at the height of his powers? I don’t mean that he was simply good at getting batters out but rather that to the dismay of stat heads, he managed to outperform his peripherals every year. Then in 2013 his home run rate regressed to league average and his control, likely due to the injuries that would later derail his career, diminished.

Unthinkable just a couple years ago, Cain sits 5th on San Francisco’s depth chart, his grip tenuous as a soft-tossing sophomore already with a no-hitter to his credit lies in waiting. If healthy, Cain will get the nod due to his contract and track record but health is a big if.  

Ground baller, Chris Heston, will hope to build upon a mostly positive rookie season that featured an unexpected no-hitter but also a hard fade over the final two months of the season. After posting the 5th best ground ball rate in the NL through the break, Heston’s FB% jumped 13 points over the final two months of the season. He also doubled his walk rate and saw his HR/FB% spike from 7.6% to 17.5%. So on top of putting more runners on base, he gave up more fly balls, a far greater percentage of which left the yard. Not surprisingly his ERA jumped nearly 3 runs in the final two months of the season.

Heston’s velocity also declined at about the same time. In an interview with the Sacramento Bee in October, he acknowledged that attempting to make up for the drop may have adversely affected his command.

 

That said, even with his late summer slump, Heston’s final line puts him in some pretty flattering company. The list of pitchers in since 2002 (the earliest that batted ball data is available) Heston’s age or younger, who have matched his combination of K/9, BB/9, and GB%, is actually pretty impressive.

 

 

While I wouldn’t put Heston in the same class as some of the more prominent names on the list, nearly all of them have gone on to put up multiple fantasy relevant seasons and I think 2016 will end up as Heston’s second. It seems Steamer would agree, projecting improvements across the board in ERA, K/9, BB/9, and HR/9. Though optimistic about performance, Steamer is down on his playing time, projecting only 8 starts and 81 innings in 2016.

The Fans take the opposite perspective and while I’m more bullish than they are on his production, I tend to agree with their assessment on innings. I can’t imagine a scenario in which Cain, Cueto, and Peavy combine to make 90+ starts, given that over the last 3 seasons, they’ve combined to make only 69 per year on average. Someone is going to have to make those other 20+ starts and that person will likely be Chris Heston.

While his performance over the final two months of the season raises serious red flags, including a decline in strikeouts, an increase in walks, and diminished velocity, his explanation of fatigue is a plausible one that can be addressed with offseason conditioning.

The more alarming development is the spike in his fly ball rate. Heston’s success depends on his ability to induce ground balls at an elite rate and absent that, hitters will feast upon his pedestrian velocity. I’m buying that his second half struggles, including the rise in fly ball rate, resulted from conditioning rather than any sudden loss of ability to induce grounders. While he probably won’t break camp in the rotation, it shouldn’t be long before he joins it, most likely replacing Cain.

Farm Options

Considered one of the Giants’ 10 best prospects by both Baseball America and MLB.com, Clayton Blackburn also graces KATOH’s top 100 list at #28. He pitched well last year in 123 innings at AAA, leading the PCL in ERA and finishing 4th in K-BB%.  Going into last season, Baseball Prospectus lauded Blackburn for his fastball command and 12-6 curve. Expect Blackburn to start the year in AAA but to be one of the first pitchers called upon for spot starts in case of an injury.

The most highly regarded pitching prospect in the Giants’ organization, Tyler Beede features high-90s heat but struggled with command upon promotion to AA. Likely to return to Richmond at the start of the year, the 23 year-old is a longshot to join the Giants in 2016. If he can can show progress with his command, Beede has value in keeper and dynasty formats.

The Bullpen

Santiago Jairo Garcia Casilla returns as the Giants’ closer. Coming off a season in which he notched 38 saves in 44 opportunities, Casilla struck out batters at the highest rate of his career. While walking more than he did in 2014, his increased strikeouts more than made up for it.

However, the strikeouts came at the expense of ground balls. After 6 consecutive seasons with ground ball rates over 50%, Casilla induced them just 46.5% of the time last season, nearly a 10% drop from 2014. Luckily his fly ball rate didn’t increase significantly but his batted ball mix is nevertheless something to keep an eye on.

Former closer and – I can only assume – ardent Trump loyalist, Sergio Romo, stands first in-line for saves should Casilla falter. Combining high strikeout rates with elite control, Romo posted the second highest ground ball rate of his career. He obviously possess value in leagues that count holds but is playable in standard formats as well.

Of the remaining bullpen arms, Hunter Strickland is the most enticing, boasting a huge fastball and a tiny walk rate. However, his other-worldly velocity translated into merely worldly strikeout totals. Steamer and the Fans both see an increase coming this season and it’s hard to disagree. Equipped with 3 pitches that induced whiffs at least 13% of the time, it seems inevitable that the strikeouts will follow.

For lefties, both Josh Osich and Javier Lopez are surprisingly effective against righties. While it’s a luxury to have two southpaws who can pitch to opposite-handed hitters, neither are particularly useful in fantasy. Lopez hardly strikes anyone out and Osich appears buried on the depth chart.

If you’re looking for information on George Kontos or Mike Broadway, your league is too deep. Please find a shallower league.