When I started this series which attempts to determine the projected fantasy value for prospects, I knew today’s step would be the hardest. The issue was converting various pitch grades (and control) into a workable framework for a pitcher’s overall production value. I thought I may not end up with a workable answer, but the following results have promise beyond just grading pitches.

I was able to piece together work from various articles and gave each pitch a grade based on the ERA scale. Combining per-pitch-ERA’s with a control value, it looks like we can estimate a pitcher’s overall value.

A pitching prospect is usually given a value on each of their pitches and a command and/or control grade. For example, the MLB.com’s grades for their top rated pitcher, Lucas Giolito, are:

Pitch: Grade
Fastball: 80
Curveball: 70
Changeup: 55
Control: 55

Read the rest of this entry »

This season I had an idea for a recurring column called The Chacon Zone that never materialized (tip of the hat to @sporer for the name). The column would have been aimed at avoiding a common pitfall that I’ve succumbed to many times myself, improperly valuing saves and subsequently chasing them at my own peril. At what point does a closer’s poor performance negate the value of an occasional save?

I hoped to identify relief pitchers whose contributions in non-save categories would outweigh the Tony Cingranis and Brad Zieglers of the world. For a variety of reasons, most notably a lack of time and unusually low bullpen volatility early in the season, I never followed through. I’m hoping to rectify that with this end-of-season yet inaugural (?) edition of The Chacon Zone.

Read the rest of this entry »

Well, the season is over! This is the second full season of xStats, and they have undergone numerous upgrades over that span. I some of you found them interesting! Perhaps even useful. With this second season under the belt, it feels fitting to throw out a few xStats awards: Best Starting Pitcher, Best Relief Pitcher, and Best Batter. So, without further ado, here we go:

Best Starting Pitcher: Clayton Kershaw.

Not a terribly big surprise. He has the best curve ball in MLB by xOBA, registering only .126 (min 200 thrown). His slider has the 7th highest swinging strike rate, 23.5% (min 200 thrown). You can see all of the pitch stats here.  It will come as no surprise when I say Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball, he’s just about the best in every individual category xStats measures. No other pitcher really got anywhere close to his dominance. While Noah Syndergaard and Jose Fernandez got somewhat close to Kershaw scFIP and xOBA respectively, the gap between Kershaw and the second best picture is still impressively wide. There is little more I can say about Kershaw, he needs to get called up to a higher league to face better opponents, MLB is too easy for him. Read the rest of this entry »

I usually get three or four of these Bold Predictions right every year, and I’ve grown comfortable with that level of success. Any more and they aren’t bold enough, any less, and they’re useless. That said, wait till you see number one. It’s a doozy. It’s *so* wrong that it should probably invalidate all my hits. It’s *so* wrong that I’m questioning why any of you are here right now. It’s *so* wrong I want to throw crap.

Read the rest of this entry »

First, a few words about my offseason writing at Rotographs. Besides reporting any possible relevant fantasy news, I plan on systematically going through two groups of players and work on their 2017 values. I will start at the top of the 2017 rankings and also somewhere in the middle and work my way down each list. I may be able to do a handful of players each article or I might by limited to just the two players. Either way, I will start putting together a 2017 draft ranking.

Additionally, I will try to follow Eno’s schedule for the other writers (e.g. players on playoff teams for the next couple of weeks). If they are looking at outfielders for that specific week, I will also look at outfielders.

The other project I will work through is being able to put a better evaluation on prospects for fantasy purposes. I will use the evaluations of various prospect writers and publications and put their evaluations into something which can be used in fantasy circles. I have some ideas of what I want to accomplish, but I am sure there will be some roadblocks and detours on the way. I will start this series Friday.

Read the rest of this entry »

Today’s MASH edition is brought to you by some questions I hand listening to Ringer’s The MLB Show podcast featuring Ben Lindbergh and guest Stan Conte (former head Dodgers’ trainer). I would recommend listening to the entire podcast as there is quite a bit of information on injuries. From the podcast, a couple of pieces of information were mentioned by Conte I just wanted to verify them.

Read the rest of this entry »

Seattle’s Edwin Diaz was called on for the four-out save and was tasked with facing the heart of Toronto’s line-up. After striking out Josh Donaldson to end the 8th, he then struck out Edwin Encarnacion to start the 9th and had to face Jose Bautista with a one-run lead. Well, Bautista took him deep for his second blown save of the season and the first earned run he had given up since August 30th when he blew his first save against Texas as well. The Mariners would win in the bottom of the 12th taking Diaz off the hook as Nick Vincent got his fourth win and R.A. Dickey gave up an unearned run to suffer his 15th loss.

Jeurys Familia suffered his fifth blown save of the season, although it was not your traditional one out save. With two on and one out in the 8th, Familia was called on for the 5-out save. After a double steal put two runners in scoring position and the Braves down by one, Matt Kemp would hit a sacrifice fly to tie the game, even though the run was unearned for set-up man Addison Reed as the runner, Ender Inciarte, reached on an error by James Loney. Familia would get out of the inning and come on for the 9th, when the Braves scored with two singles, a sac bunt, and a fielder’s choice. The game was not over as Jim Johnson came on in the 9th for the Braves looking for the sweep. After giving up a hit and a walk, with two outs Yoenis Cespedes stepped up to the plate and ripped one to deep center that looked like it was gone and would’ve given the Mets the dramatic win. Inciarte, however, would strike again and robbed Cespedes of a homer to secure Johnson’s 17th save.

Quick Hits: With Ken Giles unavailable after pitching two straight days, Luke Gregerson came on for his first save opportunity since July 6th. He gave up an unearned run, but managed to hold on for the save (15). Daniel Hudson held on for the 4-out save (4) in Arizona. Andrew Bailey (4), Tony Watson (15), and Cody Allen (15) all earned saves tonight, with Allen giving up a run in the 9th.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

It’s not as if the Chicago Cubs’ trade for started-turned-reliever-turned-starter Mike Montgomery came cheap. Dan Vogelbach isn’t a top-flight prospect, but with plus power and a solid plate approach at Triple-A Iowa this season, it’s not like he’s a nobody, either.

Then again, neither is Montgomery. A supplemental first-round pick almost 10 years ago, he was a Kansas City Royals top-5 prospect for four straight years and a Baseball America top-40 prospect for three of them. Then 2012 came; he was thrown into the James Shields–Wade Davis–Wil Myers–Jake Odorizzi blockbuster before continuing to generally fail to impress anyone. The Seattle Mariners acquired him in 2015, the year in which he debuted, in exchange for Erasmo Ramirez, and Montgomery delivered 16 suboptimal starts. He’s in Chicago now, providing relief every sixth day to a starting rotation that has generated the best staff WHIP in more than 100 years. Cool. Got that out of the way.

Montgomery is no ordinary sixth starter, though. I beg you to read this automated scouting report generated by Brooks Baseball regarding Montgomery’s pitches and their outcomes in 2016. Extreme number of ground balls. Blazing fast. Extremely high number of swings & misses. The remarks for all five of Montgomery’s pitches are, in a word, glowing.

Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s throw another name into the mess known as the Giant’s bullpen. Derek Law was activated and pitched for the Giants for the first time since August 27th. He struck out the only batter he faced down 3-1 in the 9th, as Bochy said he will not use him high leverage situations just yet. Law has had a very strong year with a 1.93 ERA (2.30 WHIP), and could see some 9th inning chances as the season winds down and the Giants bullpen continues to struggle. For now, he is off the grid.

Read the rest of this entry »

• Some strange things going on in San Francisco. Santiago Casilla lost his role as closer earlier and Hunter Strickland who recorded a save on the 11th proceeded to give up four runs last night. Steven Okert, a lefty in the Giants pen, relieved Strickland in the ninth but promptly blew the save after allowing a homer to Ryan Schimpf. Bruce Bochy confirmed that Strickland is still his closer but Derek Law is due back today making Strickland’s leash considerably tighter. Sergio Romo and Will Smith might just be considered righty and lefty specialists at this point but they could possibly see some more chances and I wouldn’t fully rule out Casilla either, depending on how he finishes the year.

Read the rest of this entry »