Archive for Relief Pitchers

Ottoneu Drip: Finding Under-rostered Pitchers: June 25, 2024

We’re a little less than half way through the regular season and the search for useful pitching is never ending. Here are a handful of pitchers who are rostered in under 60% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be nice pickups if you’re looking for an option to fill in for an injured starter or looking for another bullpen piece.

Under-rostered Starters, Last 3 Starts
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% Stuff+ Pts/IP Roster%
Jameson Taillon CHC 19 3.09 19.7% 88 5.20 55.8%
Miles Mikolas STL 19.1 2.32 15.5% 88 6.74 34.2%
Tobias Myers MIL 17.1 2.91 15.6% 92 5.85 22.6%

Jameson Taillon started off the season strong, got hurt, returned and struggled for a few weeks, and has finally come back around to find some success over his last three starts. Against the Rays, Cardinals, and red-hot Mets, he’s allowed just three runs in 19 innings with a phenomenal 6.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Unlike Myers above, Taillon has earned his success despite seeing rather normal looking batted ball peripherals. He’s probably worth an add during this hot streak if he’s available in your league.

Miles Mikolas has always enjoyed some on-again, off-again success as an innings-eater for the Cardinals. Last year was a down season for him but he’s regained some of the strikeouts that he had lost; his K% is now back up closer to where it was in 2022 when it reached a career high 19%. There really isn’t all that much that’s different in his profile — being so dependent on the command of his entire repertoire, he can go through tough stretches when he isn’t locating very well. Right now, he’s got a good feel for his pitch mix and has spun three excellent starts in a row. None of the teams he’s faced during this stretch have been all that impressive — at home against the Pirates and Giants and away at the Cubs — but it’s probably worth riding the hot streak if you’re desperate for pitching.

Tobias Myers has been thrust into a much larger role than expected thanks to all the injuries the Brewers have suffered in their pitching staff. He struggled after making his debut in late April but he’s settled into the big leagues and has been particularly impressive in June. Across four starts this month, he’s allowed just two runs while compiling a pretty good 3.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s definitely benefitting from some good batted ball luck — his BABIP allowed this month is a measly .182 — but he’s also cut his barrel rate allowed in half. Looking under the hood, he’s increased the usage of his mediocre fastball in June, though he’s run a .307 expected wOBA with his heater during this hot streak. More impressively, he’s running whiff rates higher than 30% on both his slider and changeup which gives him two pretty decent weapons to attack batters with once he’s established the fastball.

Under-rostered Relievers, Last 14 Days
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% gmLI Stuff+ Pts/IP Roster%
Sam Hentges CLE 5.2 2.09 21.1% 0.95 104 9.86 38.6%
Dedniel Núñez NYM 5.1 2.58 42.1% 1.07 122 8.67 32.3%
Colin Poche TBR 7.2 1.71 24.0% 1.49 87 9.32 19.4%
Zack Kelly BOS 8.1 0.87 37.0% 1.42 108 10.41 1.9%

It’s tough to stand out in the Guardians elite relief corps but Sam Hentges has quietly put up some solid numbers over the last few years as a less heralded member of Cleveland’s bullpen. He’s back to his usual dominance this year, with career-best strikeout and walk rates so far. There are four pitchers ahead of him in the bullpen pecking order, but as a left-handed pitcher, he gets opportunities to pick up holds against teams with particularly difficult left-handed batters. Over the last two weeks, he’s earned three holds across six appearances.

With the Mets bullpen a mess, Dedniel Núñez has earned a number of high-leverage opportunities since being recalled from the minors at the tail end of April. Ranked 33rd on their pre-season prospect list, Núñez has nasty stuff but a lack of command has really held him back from truly standing out as a relief prospect. He’s managed to gain a much better feel for his pitch mix this year — he’s allowed just three walks all season long — and that’s helped his raw stuff play to its strengths. With his recent background as a starter, New York has been using him in a multi-inning role, which has allowed him to accumulate a ton of Ottoneu points pretty quickly.

As long as he has good feel for his slider, Colin Poche will be a useful high-leverage option in the Rays bullpen. He’s been super effective since being activated off the IL a few weeks ago after missing a month with a back injury; over his last eight outings, he hasn’t allowed a run and has only allowed five baserunners. He’s probably sitting either second or third in line behind the closer Pete Fairbanks but is still seeing plenty of high-leverage work.

Zack Kelly earned a shot in the big leagues after going undrafted and getting released multiple times thanks to a pretty big increase in fastball velocity in 2022. He didn’t really stand out in limited work that year and the following season, but he’s in the midst of a breakout season so far this year. The biggest difference, beyond maintaining his improved velocity, is the introduction of a sweeper and cutter to his pitch mix. The breaking ball, in particular, has been something he had struggled to develop over the years, and now that he’s finally comfortable with one, he’s flourished. He’s earned a bit of high-leverage work recently alongside a couple of gigs opening for a bulk reliever. He’s struck out 16 this month against just three walks, a significant improvement over the 10 free passes he handed out over the first two months of the season.


These Non-Closing Relievers Are Dominating — June 10, 2024

Let’s get back to discussing those non-closing middle relievers, the ones you generally ignore in 12-team mixed leagues and shallower, but deliver real value in deep mixed and mono leagues, despite the lack of saves.

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Ottoneu Drip: Finding Under-rostered Pitchers: May 30, 2024

The search for competent pitching is never ending, especially in a year where injuries have taken their toll on so many of the top arms in the game. Here’s a handful of pitchers who are rostered in under 60% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be nice pickups if you’re looking for an option to fill in for an injured starter or looking for another bullpen piece.

Under-rostered Starting Pitchers, Last 14 Days
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% Stuff+ Pts/IP Roster%
Ryan Weathers MIA 13 2.98 22.0% 88 6.41 40.9%
Tylor Megill NYM 12 1.21 28.3% 115 7.80 40.0%
Matt Waldron SDP 17.2 1.15 29.2% 74 6.87 7.8%

Ryan Weathers earned a spot in the Marlins starting rotation with a fantastic spring training and has continued his success into the regular season. Over his last three starts, he’s allowed just two runs across 21 innings with an excellent 19:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In fact, he hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a single start except for a six run blowup against the Nationals on April 28. His fastball velocity has come down a bit from its peak in April, but it’s still higher than it was last year. The biggest difference maker for him has been his sweeper which is now running a whiff rate over 50%, more than double what it was last year. He’s a former first round draft pick and still only 24 years old so a post-hype breakout isn’t out of the question.

It certainly seemed like Tylor Megill was headed for a big breakout in 2022 but a shoulder injury cost him most of the season. He was inconsistent at best last year, though he did make 25 starts, second most on the Mets. In his final start of the season, he broke out a new splitter — he calls it a spork — and held the Phillies to just a single run in 7.1 innings while striking out seven. He honed that new pitch over the offseason and it’s now a major part of his pitch mix, running a whiff rate over 60%. He’s already been sidelined with a minor shoulder injury this year, but he’s been solid in his three starts, including holding the Dodgers scoreless over seven innings in his last outing.

Matt Waldron isn’t just throwing a knuckleball as a gimmick. He has a full five-pitch arsenal and uses the knuckler as a fully fledged secondary weapon to earn swings and misses. The rest of his pitches don’t really stand out all that much, but when a batter knows he’s going to see at least one or two knuckleballs in an at-bat, that uncertainty keeps them off balance just enough. Over his last three outings, he’s really had his floater working for him; he’s allowed just three runs across 17.2 innings while striking out 25. Because he relies so heavily on his knuckleball, and considering the fickle nature of the pitch, he’s bound to have hot and cold streaks based on how that pitch is performing.

Under-rostered Relief Pitchers, Last 14 Days
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% gmLI Stuff+ Pts/IP Roster%
Bryan Hudson MIL 6 1.46 29.2% 1.95 81 8.67 56.9%
Randy Rodríguez SFG 7.2 1.83 23.1% 1.01 119 8.98 7.5%
Porter Hodge CHC 2.1 -2.01 75.0% 0.15 102 11.88 4.7%
Tyson Miller CHC 4 1.38 31.3% 0.89 115 8.20 0.6%

With Devin Williams still sidelined, the Brewers have had some trouble finding reliable high-leverage options for their bullpen. Trevor Megill has settled in as their closer, but they’ve churned through a number of setup men, trying to find someone who can cover the seventh and eighth innings. Enter Bryan Hudson. He’s a lefty with a low-slot release point that gives batters fits. That’s how his fastball plays up despite pedestrian velocity and it gives his sweeper a ton of horizontal break — 17% more than the average for that pitch type. He’s struck out nearly a third of the batters he’s faced this year and is finally seeing regular high-leverage work.

Randy Rodríguez has the profile and pure stuff of a high-leverage reliever, but his lack of command has held him back from truly breaking out. His fastball grades out well thanks to above average velocity and plenty of carry at the top of the zone. He also has a two-plane slider that should be a good weapon for him if he can find a little more consistency with it. He made his major league debut early this month and had a stretch of five scoreless outings snapped yesterday when he allowed three runs to score in an inning of work. He’s more of a speculative add right now since he isn’t seeing much high-leverage work yet, but if he can harness his stuff, he’ll climb the bullpen ladder sooner or later.

The Cubs bullpen has had all sorts of trouble this year. Héctor Neris has seemingly locked down the ninth inning role but Chicago is still looking for high-leverage setup men. That’s how Tyson Miller earned a hold a few days ago a few weeks after being acquired from the Mariners. Miller has the flat fastball thrown from a low release point Seattle seems to love and a horizontal sweeper to go with it. He’s currently listed as the second setup man in the Cubs bullpen behind Neris and Mark Leiter Jr. Porter Hodge is another speculative add if Miller isn’t interesting enough for you. He’s only made three appearances in the majors so far, but he’s struck out 75% of the batters he’s faced. His fastball has good velocity and elite release extension helps it play up even more. He’s also added a splitter to his pitch mix this year and could quickly find himself pitching in high-leverage opportunities.


Beat the Shift Podcast – Relief Pitcher Episode w/ Doug Dennis

The Relief Pitcher episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Doug Dennis

Strategy Section

  • The value of rostering a closer handcuff
  • The value of middle relievers who won’t close games
  • Key Middle Relievers
  • Timing of when to pick up closer handcuffs off of the wire
  • Looking at overall skills vs. recent performance
  • How much FAAB to spend on new in-season closers?
  • How to deal with closers potentially being traded mid-season?
  • When to drop a struggling or demoted closer?
  • Decisions are context dependent
  • Closers on bad teams

The Doug Dennis Strategy

  • Tout Wars expert league strategy

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

Bullpen Situations

  • Phillies
  • Orioles
  • Rays
  • Twins
  • Dodgers
  • Nationals

Waiver Wire

Pitcher Preview

Injury Update

Read the rest of this entry »


Ottoneu Drip: Finding Under-rostered Pitchers: May 14, 2024

We’re a little more than a quarter of the way through the regular season and the search for useful pitching is still just as pressing now as it was a month ago. Here’s a handful of pitchers who are rostered in under 40% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be nice pickups if you’re looking for an option to fill in for an injured starter or looking for another bullpen piece.

Under-rostered Starters
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% Stuff+ Pts/IP Roster%
Trevor Williams WSN 36.2 2.48 12.7% 82 6.12 39.1%
Jake Irvin WSN 45.2 3.22 15.2% 97 4.96 22.5%
Cole Irvin BAL 40.1 3.38 12.5% 85 4.93 21.3%

After profiling Mitchell Parker last month, I’ve got a couple more Nationals starters on my radar. (BTW, Parker has continued to pitch well against some pretty tough competition; he’s got a 3.02 FIP through five starts against the likes of the Dodgers, Astros, Rangers, and Orioles.) Both Trevor Williams and Jake Irvin have been surprisingly solid to start this season as part of a Washington starting rotation that has been much better than expected. Williams has had spurts of success in the past, but not like this. The biggest difference maker for him has been the addition of a sweeper to his repertoire that immediately became his best pitch. It’s running a whiff rate north of 40% and batters are producing a .227 xwOBA off the big breaker. He’s yet to allow a home run this year, which is certainly the product of some good luck, but his xFIP is a solid 3.79 and his xERA is an even better 3.01. The rest of his arsenal looks pretty unchanged which means he’ll need to keep leaning on this new pitch to maintain his success. It’s probably worth riding the hot streak for now, but be weary of quick regression.

Like Williams, Irvin has added a new pitch to his repertoire, a cutter in his case. This new pitch hasn’t had the same effect as the breaking ball, though it has given Irvin a fourth pitch to deepen his repertoire. Instead, he’s found success by cutting his walk rate by more than six points down to 4.3%. Across the board, his plate discipline stats look greatly improved; he’s pitching in the zone more often, but his chase rate is up a few points and his contact rate is down a few points. That’s a pretty good combination of improvements and he’s reaped the benefits. Beyond his improved walk rate, his peripherals aren’t as good looking as Williams (a 3.60 xFIP and a 4.79 xERA), but he’s probably good enough now to stream when the matchup is right as long as his hot streak continues.

Cole Irvin was turning heads this spring with some gaudy velocity numbers, but that hasn’t carried over into the regular season. Nevertheless, he’s been a solid member of the Orioles rotation as they’ve struggled with some injuries to start the season. Even though they’ve gotten a bit more healthy with Kyle Bradish and John Means coming off the IL, Irvin should keep his job in the rotation thanks to his excellent numbers through his first seven starts of the season. The biggest change for Irvin has been his usage of his curveball. That breaking ball is now his “primary” pitch at the expense of his changeup and cutter. Batters have produced a .296 xwOBA off the big breaker, helping him manage contact against him to the tune of a .267 BABIP. As a lefty pitching in the now cavernous Camden Yards, his home park benefits him a bit more too. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is essentially unchanged from his career norms so it seems like a lot of his success can be attributed to some pretty good batted ball luck. Still, his xFIP is a decent 3.82 while his xERA is a little higher at 3.99.

Under-rostered Relievers
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% gmLI Stuff+ Pts/IP Roster%
John Schreiber KCR 18.1 2.75 12.0% 1.82 97 8.04 38.4%
Austin Adams OAK 13.2 2.48 22.4% 1.18 114 9.45 22.5%
Luke Weaver NYY 26 2.87 23.2% 1.28 116 7.29 11.3%

John Schreiber turned in a solid effort as a setup guy back in 2022 for the Red Sox. Injuries derailed his season last year and he was shipped off to Kansas City during the offseason. He’s rediscovered himself with his new ballclub and has become one of the key members of their bullpen. There are a few red flags however; his strikeout rate is about ten points lower than it was a few years ago because his sweeper just isn’t earning many swings-and-misses these days. He’s been effective despite the lack of punch outs and is earning high leverage work regularly. Plus, the Royals current closer, James McArthur, has looked a little shaky during his last few outings so there could be an opportunity for Schreiber to sneak in a few saves here and there in the future.

Injuries and command issues have always held Austin Adams back from realizing his skills as a high-leverage reliever. He’s struck out nearly a third of the batters he’s faced in his career but he’s only accumulated 108.1 innings over the last five seasons. Finally healthy, he’s been a productive member of the A’s surprisingly dominant bullpen. Sitting behind Mason Miller and Lucas Erceg in the pecking order, he’s collected 11 holds in just 13.2 innings. What’s more encouraging is that his walk rate has dropped to a career-low 8.6%. He might not get much work in the eighth or ninth innings, but he’s been a fantastic bridge to get to those two relief aces behind him.

Luke Weaver has emerged as a multi-inning fireman in the Yankees bullpen this year. He hasn’t allowed a run over his last ten outings encompassing 15.1 innings with a 20-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His changeup has turned into an elite weapon for him with a whiff rate north of 50% and just a .201 xwOBA allowed off the pitch. His ability to work multiple innings has eased the pressure off a shaky New York bullpen and they’re leaning on him pretty hard to get to their closer in the ninth.


Reliever Roundup: April 27, 2024

Below you’ll find a roundup of notable reliever-related news from April 20-26 , organized by team (not every team will have notes).

You can also view the Closer Depth Chart for a full picture of bullpen hierarchies.

American League

Minnesota Twins

Griffin Jax and Brock Stewart have both filled in admirably, but Jhoan Duran appears to be nearing a return to the majors. His first rehab appearance on Tuesday didn’t go well, and he topped out at just 99 mph, high for anyone not named Mason Miller but a low top-end velocity for him. Still, an early-May return appears to be in the cards, which will return Stewart and Jax to setup roles.

Oakland Athletics

Mason Miller finally pitched on back-to-back days! I’ll believe three in a row is possible when I see it, but this firmly entrenches him as the true closer, rather than “closer when he’s available, which is TBD.”

Seattle Mariners

Matt Brash had his rehab from elbow inflammation paused indefinitely, and he’s going to see Dr. Keith Meister, which is almost never good news. His season could be in real jeopardy.

Texas Rangers

Kirby Yates‘ 11 scoreless innings have him entrenched as the closer, with Bruce Bochy preferring to deploy David Robertson as more of a multi-inning fireman. It’s deja vu all over again for José Leclerc, who’s back in a setup/middle relief role while he works on his control and command, similar to last year.

National League

Arizona Diamondbacks

Paul Sewald will have his rehab slowed a bit, though it doesn’t appear to be a real setback. Kevin Ginkel should continue to close until Sewald’s ready sometime in May.

Chicago Cubs

Adbert Alzolay was removed from the closer’s role while he tightens up his command and hopefully gets less homer-prone. Hector Neris looks to be the closer for now, though he’s not pitching particularly well either. Keep an eye on Mark Leiter Jr., whose ERA is still 0.00, and Yency Almonte, who’s rebounded after a tough start.

Colorado Rockies

Justin Lawrence is on a roll and looks to have reclaimed the closer’s job that was very much not his in the early going, with Jake Bird, Nick Mears, and Victor Vodnik moving up the depth chart. Tyler Kinley continues to pitch poorly.

Milwaukee Brewers

The ninth inning will continue to be fluid until Devin Williams is back, but the latest is that Joel Payamps and Trevor Megill look to be the two guys. Abner Uribe’s control might just be a bit too spotty to be the last line of defense.

Pittsburgh Pirates

David Bednar was on a modest run of three scoreless appearances before giving up three runs without recording an out on Friday. But as I’ve been saying every week, he’s given himself plenty of leash and it’s not like Aroldis Chapman is pitching well either.


Reliever Roundup: April 20, 2024

Below you’ll find a roundup of notable reliever-related news from April 13-19 , organized by team (not every team will have notes).

You can also view the Closer Depth Chart for a full picture of bullpen hierarchies.

American League

Cleveland Guardians

Emmanuel Clase is of course the guy in the ninth, but it looks like Hunter Gaddis, who’s still unscored upon this year, is the backup. He’s struck out 38% of opponents, walking just 8%.

Houston Astros

Things couldn’t be going much worse for Josh Hader, but he’s obviously not going to lose his job anytime soon. He’s allowed more earned runs this year than he did all of last year.

Kansas City Royals

Will Smith continues pitching terribly, and James McArthur is the undisputed closer now, with just one walk to 12 strikeouts in 9.2 innings.

Los Angeles Angels

Robert Stephenson being out for the year means Carlos Estévez has almost no chance of losing his closing job this season, with Matt Moore the only other Angel reliever pitching well.

Seattle Mariners

I’ll probably continue to note every week that Andrés Muñoz is the highest-leverage reliever in the bullpen, but that Ryne Stanek will continue to get saves on days Muñoz is the fireman.

Texas Rangers

Kirby Yates has the team’s last two saves but it’s not fully clear that he’s the guy in the ninth, with José Leclerc pitching better of late and David Robertson always steady.

Texas Rangers

Kirby Yates has the team’s last two saves but it’s not fully clear that he’s the guy in the ninth, with José Leclerc pitching better of late and David Robertson always steady.

Toronto Blue Jays

Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson are back from the IL, and Chad Green is on it with a shoulder strain, so he’ll almost certainly be out for a while. Swanson looked rough in his first appearance back so Yimi García is still Romano’s top setup man, with Trevor Richards pitching in.

National League

Colorado Rockies

Things remain a mess here, with no clear closer with the Rockies so rarely in position to use one. Nick Mears and Victor Vodnik are the only two guys pitching particularly well out of the bullpen.

Milwaukee Brewers

Abner Uribe had been the closer to start the season, but he’s been pitching in lower leverage and often multiple innings lately. Manager Pat Murphy’s been playing the matchups instead, with Joel Payamps and Hoby Milner picking up saves. Just back from the IL, Trevor Megill figures to factor in as well.

Pittsburgh Pirates

David Bednar had yet another rough outing on Wednesday, but there’s still zero indication that he’s no longer the closer. Aroldis Chapman pitching poorly and then getting suspended probably takes some heat off Bednar for now anyway.


Reliever Roundup: April 13, 2024

Below you’ll find a roundup of notable reliever-related news from April 6-12 , organized by team (not every team will have notes).

You can also view the Closer Depth Chart for a full picture of bullpen hierarchies.

American League

Chicago White Sox

John Brebbia’s injury has cleared the way for Michael Kopech to be the undisputed closer. Pedro Grifol would ideally like to use him in one-inning stints but he’s often had to be deployed as a fireman as the White Sox try to eke out some wins.

Kansas City Royals

Will Smith continues to get hit around, and James McArthur has put his early-season struggles behind him. It sure looks like the latter is the closer and the former may pitch in lower leverage—as he did Friday—to work out the kinks.

Los Angeles Angels

Robert Stephenson is set to start a rehab assignment Sunday; Carlos Estévez is expected to remain the closer but Estévez, Stephenson, and Matt Moore should form a good back-end troika once Stephenson is ready for his Angels debut.

Minnesota Twins

Jhoan Duran threw a bullpen session on Friday and will throw another before hopefully departing on a rehab assignment within the week. The Twins have a staggering seven relievers on the IL, and getting their closer back will go a long way towards idealizing the full-strength bullpen that was projected as the league’s best before all the injuries hit.

Oakland Athletics

Still no back-to-backs for Mason Miller, and frankly I’m not sure he’ll ever be green-lit for pitching on consecutive days this year. That makes earnings saves hard to line up, but pitch for pitch he looks like the most dominant arm in baseball.

Tampa Bay Rays

Since getting destroyed in Colorado and blaming the baseballs from the humidor, Pete Fairbanks looks back on track. His command will always come and go but the stuff looks great and his velocity is normal for him.

Texas Rangers

José Leclerc pitched in lower leverage on Friday and while he didn’t give up any runs, his command is still erratic. My guess is he’ll stay there for a bit, with David Robertson and Kirby Yates handling the eighth and ninth.

Toronto Blue Jays

Chad Green, Trevor Richards, and Yimi García have all performed admirably as substitutes, but it’s great for the Blue Jays that Erik Swanson and Jordan Romano both started rehab assignments on Friday. Romano should regain his closing role right away, with Swanson helping set him up.

National League

Cincinnati Reds

Alexis Díaz hasn’t looked quite right—and really he hasn’t since the first half of last year—but there’s no inkling that he’ll be moved out of the closer’s role. Lucas Sims and Fernando Cruz are the only Reds relievers pitching particularly well anyway.

Colorado Rockies

The ninth is an absolute mess for Colorado, with Jake Bird recording their only save of the season and presumed co-closers Justin Lawrence and Tyler Kinley both pitching terribly. Keep an eye on Nick Mears, who throws hard and—although he’s got control issues—has allowed just two earned runs in 6.1 innings thus far.

Miami Marlins

I’m starting to get concerned with Tanner Scott, whose control has been awful. He’s walked 30% of the batters he’s faced (nine out of 20), landing just 53% of his pitches for strikes. But he’s been effectively wild, keeping runs off the board so far. It probably helps his case that the Marlins aren’t going anywhere and Anthony Bender isn’t exactly pushing for saves.

Philadelphia Phillies

As has been the case with Rob Thomson’s bullpens, a flexible closer-by-committee situation is brewing. José Alvarado, Jeff Hoffman, and Gregory Soto have all recorded saves, and Seranthony Domínguez may get more leverage if he can shake off the early-season rust. Matt Strahm and Yunior Marte have both pitched excellently as well.

Pittsburgh Pirates

I’m really not liking what I’m seeing with David Bednar, whose command just looks off, with a lot of misses high and to the glove side. Fortunately, the stuff looks just fine and Derek Shelton gave him a vote of confidence, even with Aroldis Chapman starting his Pirates tenure incredibly well.

St. Louis Cardinals

Not sure how long it’ll last, but it’s interesting to see Ryan Helsley transforming into a workhorse in the early going, pitching in eight of the Cardinals’ first 14 games. Him being more available than in years past will limit save chances for Giovanny Gallegos and JoJo Romero.

Washington Nationals

Similarly to Bednar, Kyle Finnegan just doesn’t look quite right, and his top setup man (Hunter Harvey) is pitching quite well. Still, there’s no sign of a change in the offing.

 

 

 

 

 


Ottoneu Drip: Finding Under-rostered Pitchers: April 9, 2024

This column went through a journey last year. It started as a bi-weekly effort to try and find streaming targets for Ottoneu leagues. Due to the large roster sizes and difficulties lining up auctions with the right start dates, streaming wasn’t really a viable strategy for Ottoneu. After a few months, I pivoted to trying to find under-rostered pitchers who were performing well enough to get a second look. I’ll be following that model for this season except this piece will run once a month and it will cover both starters and relievers together.

With so few games played so far, it’s hard to get a gauge on who has actually made tangible improvements and who has simply started off hot. With so many injuries plaguing some of the best pitchers in baseball, at this point, you might just be looking for a warm body to fill some innings. Hopefully the pitchers highlighted below can be more than just filler. Let’s dive in.

Under-rostered Starters
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% Pts/IP Roster%
Alec Marsh KCR 11.2 2.32 12.8% 5.97 14.7%
Spencer Turnbull PHI 11 1.36 29.3% 8.04 13.1%
Cody Bradford TEX 12.2 2.87 20.5% 6.72 12.7%

The entire Royals starting rotation has been extremely impressive to start the season but lost amid the hype surrounding Cole Ragans and the post-hype surrounding Brady Singer were two solid starts from Alec Marsh. Marsh made his major league debut last year, bouncing between the bullpen and the starting rotation throughout the year. He was undone by a 11.4% walk rate and an 18.4% home run rate, both of which drove his ERA and FIP up close to six. Command was always an issue for him during his minor league career so to take a step forward in the big leagues, he’d have to figure out that problem. Through his first two starts of the season, he’s only walked two batters, his Zone% has increased by more than 10 points up to 57.8%, and his Location+ has improved from 94 to 101. His strikeout rate has dipped a bit as he’s filled the zone which bears monitoring, but if he’s managed to address his biggest weakness, he could be in store for a big breakout season.

Back in 2021, it looked like Spencer Turnbull was in the midst of a breakout until a UCL injury derailed his forward momentum and caused him to miss the entire following season. He returned last year and made seven forgettable starts for the Tigers. He managed to win a spot in the Phillies rotation out of spring training and has turned in two brilliant starts already. He’s allowed a single unearned run in 11 innings while striking out 13 and walking just a single batter. The biggest difference for him is a new sweeper that has become one of his primary pitches. His four-seamer also looks a bit different — I’m pretty sure it’s a classification error and the pitch is now more of a hard cutter — but it’s been an effective piece to play off the horizontal movement of his breaking ball.

Cody Bradford is one of the pitchers tasked with filling in until the Rangers get Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, and Tyler Mahle back after the All-Star break. So far, he’s turned in two excellent starts, allowing just three runs in 12.2 innings. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff with a fastball that sits in the low 90s. He makes up for the lack of raw velocity with elite extension and tons of carry on his heater. He’s also added a slow, looping curveball to his arsenal this year, giving him a consistent breaking ball that he didn’t possess last year. With Michael Lorenzen’s ramp up time coming to a close soon, it’s possible Bradford will be bumped from the rotation within the next couple of weeks. That could pose a risk if you’re looking for a long-term solution for your pitching staff, but he looks good enough to add as long as he has a job in the near future.

Under-rostered Relievers
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% gmLI Pts/IP Roster%
Fernando Cruz CIN 5.1 1.12 33.3% 1.47 11.23 25.0%
Justin Slaten BOS 5.2 1.06 33.3% 2.19 10.94 9.1%
Hunter Gaddis CLE 5.1 1.68 28.6% 1.74 9.20 0.9%

With starters, you’re looking for longevity and real changes in talent. With relievers, sometimes riding the hot hand is enough.

Fernando Cruz is currently listed fourth on the Reds bullpen pecking order behind Alexis Díaz, Emilio Pagán, and Lucas Sims. Still, he’s earned three holds on the season and has struck out nearly half the batters he’s faced so far. His calling card is an unhittable splitter; that pitch is running a ridiculous 70% whiff rate and has been put in play just once thus far. Even though batters can’t hit his splitter, he has trouble locating it consistently and doesn’t have great command of his other pitches either. That’s led to a pretty high walk rate which could be his downfall. I’m betting he’ll be the number one setup guy behind Díaz in a month or two.

Justin Slaten is a rule-5 pick who is making a name for himself in the Red Sox bullpen. He’s already earned a save and a hold and has the highest average leverage index among the relievers listed above. He struggled with command while a prospect in the Rangers organization, though that hasn’t been a problem for him so far in his brief big league career; he’s struck out six and walked no one so far. Like so many relievers these days, he has a good, hard fastball and a sweeping slider that earns plenty of whiffs. If he’s actually figured out his command issues, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him creep up the pecking order in Boston’s bullpen.

Here’s my deep cut for this article. Hunter Gaddis was an up-and-down spot starter for the Guardians last year, struggling through seven starts and four relief appearances. He struck out just 13.2% of the batters he faced and relied heavily on producing weak contact for his limited success. Fast forward a year and he’s reinvented himself as a hard-throwing reliever. His fastball velocity is up nearly three ticks this year and he’s throwing his slider more than ever. The results speak for themselves: seven strikeouts and one walk in 5.1 innings with three holds. The Guardians are missing a handful of their established high-leverage relievers and Gaddis certainly looks like he’s stepped up to fill the gap.


Reliever Roundup: April 6, 2024

Below you’ll find a roundup of notable reliever-related news for the season so far, organized by team (not every team will have notes). This is the first update of the season and this will run every Saturday.

You can also view the Closer Depth Chart for a full picture of bullpen hierarchies.

American League

Baltimore Orioles

Craig Kimbrel’s velocity is down (93 mph on average), but he’s not concerned. He tends to add velocity as the season goes on and has struck out four of the seven batters he’s faced despite the lower velo.

Chicago White Sox

John Brebbia looks headed to the IL with a calf strain (a recurrence of the injury from Spring Training), though Michael Kopech appears to be the closer right now anyhow. That said, Kopech has run some high pitch counts and has walked five hitters in 5.1 innings, so he may be unable to work back-to-backs until he’s more efficient. Steven Wilson is the likeliest backup and Jordan Leasure has two scoreless appearances to start his career.

Detroit Tigers

A.J. Hinch won’t name a closer, but Jason Foley is definitely his most trusted arm. But Hinch won’t limit Foley to the ninth; he pitched a tie game against a tougher part of the order on Friday, for example, with Andrew Chafin trying for the save before Alex Lange had to bail him out. Shelby Miller and Tyler Holton have also excelled in what could be a sneaky-good, flexible bullpen.

Kansas City Royals

Even though both are running high ERAs in the very early going, it looks like Will Smith and James McArthur are co-closers, depending on matchups (Smith is lefty, McArthur a righty) and John Schreiber and Chris Stratton will help get the ball to them. Angel Zerpa also got a couple holds as a situational lefty and could sneak a save or two if Smith’s unavailable and the matchups work out.

Los Angeles Angels

Carlos Estévez is definitely the closer—and will be when Robert Stephenson returns sometime this month—but beyond that is a bit of a mess. Matt Moore has been conventionally used as a setup man, with José Soriano pitching in high leverage, but for two-plus innings. He could make some spot starts, which pushes Adam Cimber up the depth chart.

Minnesota Twins

Griffin Jax has gotten the Twins’ only save with Jhoan Duran on the IL with an oblique strain; he’s throwing from 150 feet with no pain but his timetable remains up in the air. Both Jax and Brock Stewart have looked good and we’ll assume they’re splitting closing duties until Minnesota has a few more saves in the books.

Oakland Athletics

No saves yet for the A’s, and while Mason Miller is far and away their most talented arm—reliever or otherwise—he didn’t work back-to-back days all Spring, nor has he this season; two of his three appearances have been for multiple innings. Lucas Erceg could be the next-best option if a save chance comes the day after Miller pitches, with T.J. McFarland the top lefty.

Seattle Mariners

Scott Servais has never been afraid to use Andrés Muñoz for multiple innings, or a single inning earlier than the ninth. Ryne Stanek will pick up a save here and there as that happens (as he did on Monday), and Matt Brash and Gregory Santos could do the same when they’re off the IL.

Tampa Bay Rays

Pete Fairbanks has been off with his command and his velocity is down 1.5 mph compared to last year. But it’s early, and the Rays will likely stick with him for at least a little bit. Jason Adam is next in line.

Texas Rangers

The Rangers don’t yet have a save, and both José Leclerc and David Robertson have finished games. Robertson has out-pitched Leclerc but is also likelier to get 4+ outs, which could actually lead to Leclerc getting more saves.

Toronto Blue Jays

Closer Jordan Romano and setup man Erik Swanson should be back from injury in fairly short order, with the Blue Jays taking a “cobble things together” approach to the ninth inning in their absences. Chad Green has the team’s one save, but Yimi García and Trevor Richards have pitched in high leverage as well.

National League

Chicago Cubs

Craig Counsell hasn’t named a closer officially, but it’s very clear based on usage that Adbert Alzolay is the guy, as if there was any doubt.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers, ravaged by pitching injuries (seven pitchers on the IL, including key relievers Brusdar Graterol and Blake Treinen) have turned to Daniel Hudson as their top setup man with Joe Kelly struggling. He earned a save on Sunday and could get a few more if Dave Roberts deploys Evan Phillips earlier, as he’s wont to do.

Miami Marlins

Tanner Scott’s control has been atrocious dating back to Spring Training, but the slumping Marlins don’t necessarily have anyone better to go to right now. Anthony Bender has looked good but there may not be much sense in going away from Scott just yet, either.

Milwaukee Brewers

Abner Uribe got touched up on Friday but looks to be the sole closer regardless, even as Pat Murphy said he’d play matchups with Devin Williams out half the year with a back injury. Trevor Megill is currently on the concussion IL and Joel Payamps hasn’t pitched well, so Uribe should have a strong hold on the job.

New York Mets

Edwin Díaz has also had a downtick in velocity, but he’s touched 98-99 and has pitched in some cold-weather games. I’m not sounding the alarm bells just yet, and his slider is in good form.

Pittsburgh Pirates

David Bednar looks recovered from a back injury that led to some unavailability at the start of the season, though he’s yet to work back-to-back games. Aroldis Chapman could still get a save here and there if Bednar’s still ramping up a bit.

Washington Nationals

Kyle Finnegan‘s earned both Nationals saves this year, but Hunter Harvey’s been a lot sharper. Tanner Rainey, coming off Tommy John surgery (he made just one appearance at the end of last season) has been erratic, with a 25% walk rate and without his usual velocity.