My colleague Al Melchoir has steadfastly examined the bullpens of non-contenders and examined the closer landscape at large. These are excellent places to look for bargain saves. On another website of some repute, I’m tasked with setting the closer rankings. Part of that involves an in-depth preseason examination of all bullpens. Today, I’d like to share what I’ve learned about the NL and AL East.

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One of the more popular questions I get in any given offseason is “Who is this year’s ____?”, usually focused on identifying the next breakout of a certain mold. Sometimes it’s about a bust, but it’s often looking for the upside. I’ve got eight pitcher scenarios from last year that I’m going to overlay on this year’s ADP data to identify some potential gems. For some of the deeper categories, I added a few extra considerations.

I’m using the NFBC ADP (linked above) and set to 2/1/19 and Draft Championships.

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A few days back, I determined the replacement levels for hitters who will miss some time this upcoming season. Today, the pitchers take center stage.

It’s tough to give any pitcher a full season of innings with almost half of them heading to the IL. Today’s focus is to find those pitchers who won’t see a full workload for one reason or another. Workload limits. Injuries. Time in minors. Since the missed time is known, an owner can the fill in the rest of the season with a replacement pitcher. It’s time to dive in.

Injured or coming off Tommy Surgery

Note: The standard minimum return time from Tommy John surgery is now 14 months. No one in years has come back in 12. I’m skipping any pitcher who had a mid-season or later surgery since they may just be back for a few September starts. I’m not going to worry about September starts in Spring Training.

Brandon Morrow
Out until: ~May 1st

While it may be a mistake, I’m fading Morrow hard. He’s an injury-prone pitcher who is starting the season hurt. And for a closer, he’s good (~2.00 ERA the past three seasons) but not great (9.1 K/9 in 2018). I could see Pedro Stroop take the job and run with it over the first month. When Morrow returns, he may never get another Save. He’s a late round DL stash for now.

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Over the last several weeks, I have been writing about the closer picture for teams who are unlikely to contend, but are likely to deal an incumbent closer before the trade deadline. While this year’s Hot Stove season has generally moved slowly, there have been a number of moves and announcements involving relievers lately, so I’m taking the opportunity to update some of the situations I have written about recently. I am also tossing in a couple of closer conundrums from teams that I have yet to address this offseason (including one from a clear contender). Both situations are already starting to vex owners getting ready for drafts.
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Pitching is a fickle little pickle. The primary reason, of course, is injuries. The constant stream of injuries makes it so few, if any, teams ever make it through the entire season using just five starters. This is where the reinforcements come in. I’ve got seven notable arms who aren’t locked into a rotation spot, but have the skills to excel if and when they get the chance.

I think we often focus too hard on April and forget that it’s a six-month season. It’s a balance, right? You can’t get load your team up with guys who aren’t going to contribute until June or later. However, I wouldn’t eschew a viable arm who could be in the rotation within the first 4-6 weeks of the season for a lesser arm who has a role now, especially if that better arm will be in the bullpen to start (meaning they won’t be dead weight on your roster).

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Injuries analysis is becoming a pain in the butt. First, MLB goes and changes the days missed from 15 to 10 thereby nullifying several projection models. And now they’ve gone and renamed the Disabled List the Injury List. I think of naming it the BDL (Broke D__k List). I’ve been waiting for a few more seasons of DL data to create a new formula which will become obsolete with the 12-day DL but why wait. I have two seasons of 10-day IL information to create a few comparisons, especially for pitchers.

While I’ve historically collected the data, Ryan Brock jumped in and completed the 2018 season. I’m not sure if I would have gotten to pulling it together because when I normally do it (post-season), I was finishing my book. I can’t thank Ryan enough.

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The Blue Jays have the highest projected win total (77) of any team I am writing about in this series, but it’s fair to say they will be non-contenders in the AL East. Their biggest moves have been to sign Matt Shoemaker and Freddy Galvis and to trade for Clayton Richard, and they haven’t been linked to any deals for impact players. As currently constituted, they don’t appear to have either the offense or pitching to keep up with the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays.
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In this series, I have focused on pitchers who are likely to close for teams that project to be sellers at the deadline, as well as the potential replacement closers for when said pitchers get traded. For most teams, that has meant taking a look at a total of four or five relievers. In the case of the Tigers, there are really only two relievers who matter: Shane Greene and Joe Jimenez. Ron Gardenhire has named Greene as his closer, With Alex Wilson gone, Jimenez remains as the only viable closer-in-waiting, and it’s no secret that he is being groomed to be the Tigers’ next closer.
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Yesterday, I examined some hitters with the largest plate appearance projection discrepancies using five separate sources. Today, pitchers take center stage.

I’m using the projected playing times from FanGraphs Depth charts and four other sources. Again, I won’t name them as I don’t want to debate the merits of each. My goal is to just find and evaluate different takes on the same players.

The differences aren’t nearly as drastic as the hitters, especially for the top arms. Most of the major differences involve around unknown roles and injury risks. I listed the top-200 at the end while the values for free agents and foreign signings may be off or missing. I’m going to focus on the biggest differences in some top-ranked pitchers.

Ross Stripling
Range (Max-Min): 67
Average: 112
Standard Deviation: 33

I’m not surprised one bit on Stripling. Unless the Dodgers get hit with a ton of injuries to their starters, he’s going to begin the season as a reliever or in the minors. He’s got the talent to be a top-20 starter but the number of starts he’ll get is unknown. Owners can draft him and hope his talent forces the Dodgers hand. The other issue is that he’s on the Dodgers who manipulate their roster to give pitchers scheduled days off via demotions or “injuries”. Good luck guessing right with him.

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Earlier this offseason, it appeared as if Jose Leclerc might get traded rather than be a part of a rebuilding Rangers squad. Then new manager Chris Woodward was reportedly thinking of using his incumbent closer in a variety of relief roles. Now we know that Leclerc isn’t going anywhere — not to another team and not to another role — as Woodward named him as the team’s closer.

If the Rangers fall out of contention as expected, teams will certainly be calling about Leclerc. Also, while Leclerc was one of the best relievers in the majors last season, he is only two years removed from an astronomical 20.0 percent walk rate. As great as Leclerc was in 2018, it is still worth our while to venture out further into the bullpen to see who might have value in 2019.
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