I’ve updated my starting pitcher rankings with commentary on the top 100. Beyond the top 100, I grouped guys into tiers. These are the same tiers I used in the Fantasy Black Book (available now!) and different guys within those tiers are definitely comparable to guys found in the Top 100, but it just becomes difficult to differentiate so the Top 100 really focused on the guys I’m drafting/targeting right now.

If you like somebody in one of the lists better than someone I have in the 80-100 range, that totally makes sense. It’s very fluid there, just as it is in the middle grouping of the pitchers ranks (from around 30-75), which I’ve termed The Glob™.  This ranking outlines how I’m attacking The Glob™.

Read the rest of this entry »

Whether I like it or not, I’ve opened Pandora’s box on year-to-year consistency. The concept states that if a hitter’s overall year-to-year production is consistent, the consistent production will continue. Therefore, good, consistent hitters should be valued more highly since owners know what they’ll be getting on draft day. The problem is that consistent overall production doesn’t lead to future consistency.

The discussion started last week when I wrote that Eric Hosmer and Edwin Encarnacion had similar fantasy values but Hosmer’s NFBC ADP (average draft position) was quite a bit lower. Reader’s stated in the comments they devalued Hosmer because of his year-to-year inconsistency.

Read the rest of this entry »

In case you missed the announcement in Paul Sporer’s latest post:

FanGraphs now has NFBC ADP data!

NFBC ADP data used to be hosted at Stats, Inc. Prior to last week, 2018 data had only been available to NFBC contestants.

Anticipated FAQs:

Where can I find the data?

Read the rest of this entry »

Hard to believe January is already half finished.  Maybe even harder to accept that there are a significant number of talented MLB free agents left unsigned.  As we wait through the long winter days, I’m looking forward to seeing these players in action in 2018.

Part One

Garrett Richards

Read the rest of this entry »

2018 is here, and the dawn of a new year is the best time to reevaluate your overall fantasy strategy.  But before digging into the finer points of roster construction, auction value calculations, and post-post-hype sleepers, January is also the perfect time to step back and ask whether it might be time to trade in your entire fantasy experience for one of the more advanced, up-and-coming fantasy platforms around.

This is a shameless plug for Ottoneu, a fantasy sports platform so addicting that it has also launched a community of more than 1,000 hardcore baseball fans that sleep and eat baseball year round.  But don’t take my word for it.  There are many reasons why you should try Ottoneu (including some exciting new features launching in 2018), but today I want you to hear from some of the “rookies” who just finished up their first full year of Ottoneu in 2017. This growing community of raving fans is a big part of the Ottoneu experience, and their Season One feedback may help you make the final decision to drive your own league to Ottoneu in 2018.

Read the rest of this entry »

“… pros were more likely to ride a wave of irrational exuberance than to fight it. One reason is that it is risky to be a contrarian. ‘Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally’” – Richard Thaler in Misbehaving

At the root level, fantasy baseball is about acquiring more undervalued assists than your opponents. Everyone wants a first-round talent for a last round price (e.g. Aaron Judge). With teams clamoring to acquire every advantage, they are insistent on wasting away an early draft advantage. In early 2018 drafts I’ve participated in, an early emphasis on middle infielders is inflating their value way beyond their projected production. Is the observation wrong? If so why? If not, how can an owner take advantage of this mispricing?

Note: For this article, I will lump second basemen and shortstops together into one middle infield position. Neither position has more talent than the other and the bottom players will be used to fill a middle infield position.

For those who have recently created mixed-league valuations, positional scarcity doesn’t exist besides with catcher. I use the method outlined in Larry Schechter’s book, Winning Fantasy Baseball to determine my values. I’m not going to go into the process’s exact details but it’s the standard procedure used by fantasy experts to prep for auctions. Even a couple years ago a small amount of positional scarcity existed but a huge influx of good middle infielders has raised the group’s overall talent level up to the other positions.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Japanese sensation Shohei Ohtani is finally coming to MLB (and more specifically to the Angels), and in doing so will become the trailblazer that sets a new expectation for the future of the (possible) “two-way” player.  Because salaries and injuries continue to escalate in the game, a true double threat major leaguer is still hard to imagine in baseball, but if the 23 year old Ohtani does become the first player since Babe Ruth to make a regular impact on both sides of the ball, he will change the landscape of fantasy baseball, too.

Ohtani 😱 pic.twitter.com/YXJJ8954Hs

— Vladimir Guerrero (@VladGuerrero27) December 8, 2017

Read the rest of this entry »

About a week ago, I compared rankings with some actual ADP. One player which stood out was Rougned Odor. He ranked 47th overall (AVG vs OBP league) and it’s tough to rank a person so high who hit only .204 last season. Steamer projections currently have him back up to a .255 AVG. Acceptable but not great.

Additionally, Odor comes to the plate hacking and rarely walks (4.2% for his career) so almost all of his value comes from his BABIP. If his batted balls don’t fall for hits, he’s not getting on base. Since his value is so BABIP driven, I decided to see what the BABIP bounce-back chances were for low-walk hitters.

Read the rest of this entry »

In my last article, I examined the potential value differences between the top-50 rank players and their average draft position (ADP). Today, I will examine the next 50. While the first list contained quite a few players moving up, today’s list is a little more balanced with over and undervalued players.

One of the biggest takeaways from the first article was the extra replacement value catchers receive in a 2-catcher format. To simply explain the idea, I will turn to Joe Bryant who goes through a fitting example but with football.

The league’s bottom catchers are so bad so any catcher who can hit has good value. Evan Gattis being ranked #17 got most of the scrutiny in the rankings. As was pointed out, the projection may be high on the plate appearances but the process was still sound. Here is how Gattis compares to the last catcher ranked (Yan Gomes) and Francisco Lindor compared with the last middle infielder (Kolten Wong).

Yan Gomes is such a sink, especially with a total of 55 Runs+RBIs. It’s imperative to understand and value catchers correctly for each league formats. It’s a potentially huge advantage for those owners who spend the time. Read the rest of this entry »

“Long ago, Ben Graham taught me that ‘Price is what you pay; value is what you get.’ Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks,

… or fantasy baseball players

I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.” –Warren Buffett

Collecting as much value (talented players) from as little possible resources (draft picks or auction dollars) is the key to starting off a winning fantasy season. From now until each draft, owners should be trying to calculate player values and the possible range of outcomes. With these value ranges in mind, owners can use their draft resources to get the best deals. It’s time to start finding those deals.

To find the bargains, player values first need to be calculated. To create the values, I will use the average final standings from the 32 leagues in the 2017 NFBC Main Event (15 team, 5×5 roto with AVG).

Read the rest of this entry »