Archive for Rankings

Bullpen Report: July 23, 2017

With the trade deadline fast approaching, there was plenty of relevant bullpen activity on a busy Sunday afternoon…

Sean Doolittle pitched a scoreless ninth with the Nationals up by four against the Diamondbacks. He now has two saves and the completion of a four-run win under his belt with his new team, and Ryan Madson has yet to see a save opportunity in Washington. It bears repeating, however, that Dusty Baker has indicated that he may mix and match with those two in the ninth, and that he will be cautious with Doolittle given his history of arm issues. Even if Doolittle is the main closer in Washington, which appears to be the case for now, Madson is probably still worth stashing in holds leagues, and to those desperate for saves, in case Doolittle falters or sustains another injury.

Zach Britton struck out two and walked one en route to his first save since April 14. Orioles ownership has reportedly given management the green light to trade Britton, so his status is worth monitoring closely in the coming days. His successful save conversion on Sunday was a good start, but Britton has missed a lot of time with a forearm injury this season and teams might not be willing to give up what the Orioles would want in return for their ace reliever. If Britton remains with the Orioles, he will likely reclaim the closer’s role in full capacity assuming he can remain healthy. If he’s traded, however, it’s possible that he could be used in an Andrew Miller-type role on a new team.

On Saturday, Hector Neris allowed a run on three hits in what had been a tie game in the ninth, and was saddled with the loss. On Sunday, with a three-run ninth-inning lead, the Phillies went to Luis Garcia for the save chance. He struck out one in a perfect frame. It was his first save of the season and just the third of his career. Despite the rare save opportunity, Garcia’s peripherals don’t suggest he’s a closer in the making, so the grid remains unchanged for now. Neris’ grip on the ninth, however, remains relatively shaky.

Jose Leclerc was brought into a left-heavy section of the Rays’ lineup in the ninth with the Rangers up by one. He struck out two and walked two to secure the save. Leclerc has an exceptional 35.5 percent strikeout rate this season, but he’s also walked 16.1 percent of batters. Along Alex Claudio and Keone Kela, Leclerc is in the Rangers’ ninth-inning mix. Despite picking up the majority of saves for the Rangers recently, Jeff Banister wouldn’t commit to Alex Claudio as his closer, and Sunday’s converted save chance by Leclerc seemed to back that up. Matt Bush, who held the closer’s role for the Rangers earlier this season, pitched a scoreless seventh with the Rangers trailing by a run on Sunday.

Kenley Jansen blew a three-run ninth-inning lead against the Braves. Jansen allowed the first two batters to reach but settled down and got two outs before finally allowing a three-run homer to Matt Adams that tied the game. It was Jansen’s first blown save of the season.

Staying in the National League West, Brad Hand picked up a save against the Giants on Sunday. Brandon Maurer is San Diego’s usual closer, and he blew a save on Friday when he surrendered two two-out baserunners and a game-tying, three-run blast to Conor Gillaspie. If Hand wasn’t likely to be traded, it might be a bigger deal that he got the save chance over Maurer on Sunday. As it is, Maurer will remain in the closer’s spot on the grid for now, and Hand’s future is completely unknown at this time. If he isn’t traded, he could conceivably take over the closer’s role in San Diego. If he is traded, there’s no telling what his role will be. He’s probably worth owning in all holds leagues, as he’s quietly one of the best relievers in baseball.

With the Yankees leading by two runs in Seatlle, Dellin Betances pitched the seventh and David Robertson pitched the eighth. Betances has struggled mightily with command this season to the tune of a 17.8 percent walk rate, and it appears that Robertson may snag the eighth inning role and be next in line for saves behind closer Aroldis Chapman. For now, Betances will remain in his usual spot behind Chapman on the grid, but that could change if he continues to see the seventh and Robertson continues to see the eighth.

There were a few fresh faces in the eighth inning on Sunday: Blake Parker of the Angels, Bruce Rondon of the Tigers, and Jason Grilli of the Rangers all pitched in close eighth innings despite occupying lesser roles recently. Parker and Grilli pitched spotless frames, and Rondon allowed two runs on three hits before giving way to Justin Wilson for a four-out save opportunity. Wilson allowed a home run and a walk in the ninth but struck out three in the outing to secure his 12th save.

Other closer activity: Raisel Iglesias notched a two-inning save against the Marlins. Santiago Casilla allowed a hit but notched his 16th save against the Mets. Kelvin Herrera struck out two in a perfect ninth in a tie game at home. Bud Norris secured a one-run save against the Red Sox. Tyler Clippard was brought into a two-on, no out situation in a tie game in the ninth inning on the road, and he allowed a game-ending single to the first batter he faced, Brandon MossBrandon Kintzler entered in the top of the ninth with the Twins trailing by a run, and he allowed three runs on two hits and two walks. Jim Johnson entered in the bottom of the 10th in a tie game against the Dodgers, and allowed the winning run to score. Aroldis Chapman allowed two hits but struck out one and notched his 11th save of the season against the Mariners.

Closer Grid:

Closer First Second DL/Minors
ARI Fernando Rodney Archie Bradley JJ Hoover
ATL Jim Johnson Arodys Vizcaino Jose Ramirez
BAL Zach Britton Brad Brach Mychal Givens
BOS Craig Kimbrel Joe Kelly Matt Barnes Carson Smith
CHC Wade Davis Koji Uehara Carl Edwards Jr.
CWS Tyler Clippard Anthony Swarzak Dan Jennings Nate Jones
CIN Raisel Iglesias Michael Lorenzen Drew Storen
CLE Cody Allen Andrew Miller Bryan Shaw
COL Greg Holland Adam Ottavino Jake McGee
DET Justin Wilson Alex Wilson Shane Greene
HOU Ken Giles Will Harris Michael Feliz
KC Kelvin Herrera Joakim Soria Mike Minor
LAA Bud Norris Cam Bedrosian David Hernandez Huston Street
LAD Kenley Jansen Pedro Baez Luis Avilan
MIA A.J. Ramos Kyle Barraclough Junichi Tazawa
MIL Corey Knebel Jacob Barnes Carlos Torres
MIN Brandon Kintzler Taylor Rogers Matt Belisle Glen Perkins
NYM Addison Reed Paul Sewald Jerry Blevins Jeurys Familia
NYY Aroldis Chapman Dellin Betances David Robertson
OAK Santiago Casilla Blake Treinen Liam Hendriks
PHI Hector Neris Pat Neshek Luis Garcia
PIT Felipe Rivero Juan Nicasio Daniel Hudson
STL Trevor Rosenthal Brett Cecil Seung Hwan Oh
SD Brandon Maurer Brad Hand Ryan Buchter Carter Capps
SF Sam Dyson Hunter Strickland George Kontos Mark Melancon
SEA Edwin Diaz Nick Vincent Tony Zych
TB Alex Colome Tommy Hunter Brad Boxberger
TEX Alex Claudio Jose Leclerc Keone Kela
TOR Roberto Osuna Ryan Tepera Danny Barnes
WSH Sean Doolittle Ryan Madson Matt Albers Koda Glover

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]


2017 Second Base Tier Rankings – July Update

Instead of updating these rankings monthly like I did for the past few years, I decided to dial that back this year, with this being the third and final edition for 2017. In the past, I found the four-week turnaround to be a bit quick, as the samples since the previous entry were always small. This year, I’ve given myself more like 6-8 weeks between updates, giving me a format I’m much more confident in.

For reference, here’s what these tiers looked like in mid-May.

TIER ONE

I always flirt with the idea of putting someone in the top tier with Altuve, and I’ve even done it a couple times. In the end, I come back to the fact that he’s been performing at a level above nearly every other second baseman since 2014. There are times when someone else will keep up with him for a month or two, but it doesn’t last, and Altuve always ends up distancing himself from the pack again.

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Starting Pitcher Rankings Update – July

Here is my latest starting pitcher rankings update! Keep in mind that this is a narrower focus than just “rest of season” as I’ll be updating these again in mid-to-late August for the stretch run. Pitching is just too volatile to have confidence in a single ranking set for more than 4-6 weeks at a time. The tiers are what’s important.

I’ll reiterate again that the Must-Starts aren’t automatically the best pitchers, but rather the guys that you can’t sit with any confidence (they don’t have a platoon split or home-road split and their track record speaks more than the first three months of this season. Please leave your questions and comments below!

Previous Updates:

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Bullpen Report: July 9, 2017

Another compelling day of bullpen activity around the major leagues as the unofficial first half of the season comes to a close…

One day after allowing two walks and a walk-off homer, All-Star closer Corey Knebel entered in the eighth inning with a two-run lead, two outs, and a runner on second. He walked Ji-Man Choi, but retired the next batter on a ground ball to short. In the ninth, Knebel walked Brett Gardner to open the inning, but then struck out Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, and Gary Sanchez to notch his 14th save and secure the first-place Brewers’ 50th victory. The strikeout of Judge marked Knebel’s 44th consecutive appearance with at least one strikeout, which is now just five shy of the major league record for a relief pitcher set by Aroldis Chapman in 2014. Knebel’s 43 consecutive appearances with at least one strikeout to open the season is already the single-season record and the most ever to begin a year.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 474 – The Starting Pitcher Bonanza

6/28/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

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Strategy Section: Discussing My SP Update (link to list)

  • Must Start (3:00)
  • Usually Start (1:17:00)
  • Spot Start (2:07:30)

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Starting Pitcher Rankings Update (June)

Here is my latest starting pitcher rankings update! Please review the May 18th update for information on the tiers. Keep in mind that this is a narrower focus than just “rest of season” as I’ll be updating these again at the All-Star break. Pitching is just too volatile to have confidence in a single ranking set for more than 4-6 weeks at a time.

Hell, things will probably change this weekend that will make me reconsider some slots, but we can deal with those on a one-off situation. The tiers are what’s important. I’ll reiterate again that the Must-Starts aren’t automatically the best pitchers, but rather the guys that you can’t sit with any confidence (they don’t have a platoon split or home-road split and their track record speaks more than the first three months of this season.

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All Colorado Starts: Ignorable?

I’m not sure of the exact Sleeper and the Bust podcast but Paul and Eno were discussing Jeff Samardzija and how his ERA would look better without a Colorado start. Right now Samardzija’s ERA is 4.31 but if the seven run, five inning start in Colorado is removed his ERA drops to 3.81. I’m not a fan of removing starts from a pitcher’s stats. The good and bad will happen. The deal is that Samardzija owners probably sat him that week like I did in Tout Wars. If owners aren’t going to use pitchers in their Colorado starts maybe owners should start ignoring the stats generated there.

The increase scoring environment in Colorado is about impossible to overcome. In an article at Rotowire ($) last year, I stated the following:

What we do know is that the road pitcher should expect between a 1.00 and 2.00 increase in ERA. I might put the ERA drop near 1.50, but I could understand if an owner wants to use a smaller or larger number. Additionally, I will put the K/9 drop near 0.9 and the WHIP increase at .25.

Those increases are just too much to absorb over an entire season. Sure an owner can get away with a start every now and then but eventually, the odds will even out. Once the hammer drops, an owner will spend a couple weeks trying to recover their overall rate stats.

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pERA Leaderboard: Non-Closer Relievers

I’m going to continue looking at my recent pERA rankings after writing about starters the last couple of days. Today, I am going to examine the top non-closers. These guys may not be closing now but are showing some promising skills to open the season.

Note: For reference, here are the articles in which I created the framework for the metric (full list).

 

James Hoyt (2.12 pERA): In a handful of innings, Hoyt has a 43% K% and a 6% BB%. Insane. These raw skills are being masked by a 1.5 HR/FB and .400 BABIP which has pushed his ERA to 4.08.

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pERA Laggardboard: Starters

Yesterday, I wrote about some pitchers at the top of my two-month pERA ranking. Today, I am going to examining some starting pitchers (min 5 starts) who are the other end of the spectrum. These pitchers have struggled and I will try to determine why.

Note: For reference, here are the articles in which I created the framework for the metric (full list).

 

Rich Hill (#165, 6.01 pERA): Hill throws two pitches and both have taken a significant step backward. Starting with his fastball, it’s 1.5 mph slower. This move is not a game changer, but for a pitcher with just one other pitch, any fastball degradation could kill his overall value.

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Starting Pitcher Ranking Update

For a full primer on the process behind these rankings, check out episode 458 of The Sleeper & The Bust.

I decided to go a different route than the traditional 1 to whatever listing and went a step beyond the tiered rankings which allow for more nuance than just a numbered ranking, but still feel inadequate to tackle the many challenges of in-season pitcher management. I do still have tiers, but they are much different tiers and so they aren’t just talent-based groupings. They are more about usability in the fantasy game.

I have five different levels for active arms and then injury and minor league groupings for those we’re waiting on. We always talk “rest of season” when looking at deals and pickups, but I think we have to be more short term than that, especially with pitching. This doesn’t mean I’m wildly shifting rankings and my outlook on pitchers after every start, but rather I’m acknowledging that the landscape is going to shift so much throughout the six month season that trying to focus beyond a month or two is foolhardy.

The tiers are as follows:

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