Value vs. ADP: Players 51 to 100
In my last article, I examined the potential value differences between the top-50 rank players and their average draft position (ADP). Today, I will examine the next 50. While the first list contained quite a few players moving up, today’s list is a little more balanced with over and undervalued players.
One of the biggest takeaways from the first article was the extra replacement value catchers receive in a 2-catcher format. To simply explain the idea, I will turn to Joe Bryant who goes through a fitting example but with football.
The league’s bottom catchers are so bad so any catcher who can hit has good value. Evan Gattis being ranked #17 got most of the scrutiny in the rankings. As was pointed out, the projection may be high on the plate appearances but the process was still sound. Here is how Gattis compares to the last catcher ranked (Yan Gomes) and Francisco Lindor compared with the last middle infielder (Kolten Wong).
| Name | AVG | HR | R | RBI | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Gattis | 0.254 | 30 | 73 | 87 | 2 |
| Yan Gomes | 0.232 | 9 | 26 | 29 | 1 |
| Difference | 0.022 | 21 | 47 | 58 | 1 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.292 | 26 | 96 | 90 | 14 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.268 | 12 | 58 | 56 | 9 |
| Difference | 0.024 | 14 | 38 | 34 | 5 |
Yan Gomes is such a sink, especially with a total of 55 Runs+RBIs. It’s imperative to understand and value catchers correctly for each league formats. It’s a potentially huge advantage for those owners who spend the time.
Now, here are the next 50 players ranked by the difference in values using the settings:
- $260 budget
- 67/33 Hitter/Pitcher split, and the latest
- Steamer projections
- SGP values from 2017 NFBC main event
- 14 position players (2 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, 5 OF, MI, CI, Util), 9 pitchers
- ADP from Fantrax (The ranks have changed from my initial data pull. I will keep the older ranks so players don’t overlap).
| Rank | Name | ADP | Rank Value | ADP Value | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | Nick Castellanos | Not drafted | $14.8 | $1.00 | $13.82 |
| 93 | Willie Calhoun | 236 | $15.2 | $6.0 | $9.13 |
| 62 | Yadier Molina | 160 | $18.4 | $10.2 | $8.20 |
| 100 | Blake Snell | 213 | $14.5 | $7.1 | $7.43 |
| 65 | David Price | 144 | $18.1 | $11.1 | $7.05 |
| 58 | Jeff Samardzija | 124 | $19.0 | $12.2 | $6.85 |
| 54 | Miguel Cabrera | 117 | $19.4 | $12.9 | $6.47 |
| 72 | Adam Jones | 139 | $17.2 | $11.2 | $5.94 |
| 73 | Gerrit Cole | 133 | $17.1 | $11.4 | $5.71 |
| 87 | Carlos Santana | 156 | $15.4 | $10.3 | $5.13 |
| 68 | Jon Lester | 111 | $17.9 | $13.4 | $4.50 |
| 60 | Masahiro Tanaka | 102 | $18.8 | $14.5 | $4.36 |
| 71 | Joey Gallo | 115 | $17.3 | $13.1 | $4.20 |
| 92 | Jon Gray | 142 | $15.2 | $11.1 | $4.04 |
| 86 | Eddie Rosario | 130 | $15.8 | $11.8 | $4.00 |
| 98 | Adrian Beltre | 143 | $14.6 | $11.1 | $3.51 |
| 94 | Ryan Zimmerman | 125 | $15.1 | $12.0 | $3.10 |
| 99 | DJ LeMahieu | 132 | $14.5 | $11.4 | $3.09 |
| 75 | J.T. Realmuto | 104 | $17.0 | $14.2 | $2.85 |
| 51 | Wil Myers | 71 | $19.8 | $17.3 | $2.50 |
| 97 | Yasiel Puig | 123 | $14.7 | $12.4 | $2.36 |
| 56 | Andrew McCutchen | 70 | $19.2 | $17.3 | $1.88 |
| 52 | Buster Posey | 66 | $19.6 | $18.1 | $1.52 |
| 53 | Eric Hosmer | 65 | $19.5 | $18.1 | $1.42 |
| 74 | James Paxton | 82 | $17.0 | $16.0 | $1.04 |
| 84 | Robinson Cano | 94 | $15.9 | $15.1 | $0.82 |
| 59 | Anthony Rendon | 59 | $18.9 | $18.9 | $0.00 |
| 63 | Christian Yelich | 63 | $18.4 | $18.4 | $0.00 |
| 78 | Aaron Nola | 77 | $16.7 | $16.9 | -$0.12 |
| 90 | Lorenzo Cain | 84 | $15.3 | $15.9 | -$0.63 |
| 85 | Khris Davis | 79 | $15.9 | $16.6 | -$0.77 |
| 55 | Edwin Encarnacion | 48 | $19.4 | $20.2 | -$0.88 |
| 77 | Dallas Keuchel | 62 | $16.9 | $18.4 | -$1.52 |
| 91 | Tommy Pham | 76 | $15.3 | $16.9 | -$1.62 |
| 61 | Rhys Hoskins | 47 | $18.7 | $20.4 | -$1.62 |
| 57 | Yu Darvish | 46 | $19.1 | $20.8 | -$1.68 |
| 83 | Miguel Sano | 69 | $16.0 | $17.7 | -$1.70 |
| 64 | Carlos Martinez | 50 | $18.3 | $20.2 | -$1.90 |
| 80 | Byron Buxton | 64 | $16.2 | $18.3 | -$2.10 |
| 76 | Billy Hamilton | 57 | $16.9 | $19.1 | -$2.19 |
| 88 | Jean Segura | 67 | $15.3 | $18.0 | -$2.66 |
| 66 | Robbie Ray | 45 | $18.1 | $20.8 | -$2.72 |
| 81 | Jonathan Schoop | 60 | $16.1 | $18.8 | -$2.74 |
| 67 | Alex Bregman | 42 | $18.0 | $21.1 | -$3.06 |
| 82 | Justin Upton | 51 | $16.0 | $19.8 | -$3.76 |
| 89 | Elvis Andrus | 55 | $15.3 | $19.4 | -$4.09 |
| 70 | Kenley Jansen | 38 | $17.3 | $22.9 | -$5.62 |
| 95 | Craig Kimbrel | 40 | $15.0 | $22.2 | -$7.29 |
| 79 | Corey Seager | 30 | $16.6 | $24.8 | -$8.14 |
| 69 | Cody Bellinger | 25 | $17.7 | $26.1 | -$8.47 |
Here are my thoughts on some of the biggest disagreements.
Undervalued
Nick Castellanos: I’m not sure what was wrong in these early drafts. Castellanos should at least been drafted. In subsequent drafts, he was closer to #100 overall. This puts his ADP value closer to his overall value.
Willie Calhoun: Calhoun can hit and not much else. With the Rangers, he can DH regularly but will have outfield and/or second base eligible this season depending on individual league rules. My biggest concern will be playing time and owners should monitor his situation closely in spring training. He’s a potential 7th round value in the 16th.
Blake Snell: Maybe the walks (4.1 BB/9 in ’17) scare away some owners. I’m not sure but he looks to but a nice buying opportunity on a young arm who could gain some control.
David Price, Jeff Samardzija, Jon Lester, Masahiro Tanaka: These four are not a sexy group of pitchers because owners know how they’ll perform. Age is not on their side but they start a ton and last long into games. They are Win and Strikeout accumulators. A team may not be able to win with all four on a roster but a one or two could really help.
Miguel Cabrera: Projections have him as a 4th rounder but his ADP is four rounds later. I’m not sure I’d trust Cabrera to hold up and be a 4th rounder. I could see him being constantly injured and provide no value or be a 1st rounder again. I really need to come up with a projection I can live with. I might just go with his 2017 line.
DJ LeMahieu: Even though there is no position scarcity (besides catcher), owners still act like it exists so values at middle infield are tougher to find. Value pickers need to target guys like LeMahieu or understand they may be picking up middle infielders after the 10th round or even later.
Overvalued
Cody Bellinger: I figured he’d be overvalued but not this much. I’m a little suspect of his projection since the number of games played (130) are the same as his 2017 games (132). I’d move up the games closer to 150 and the counting stats should take a boost.
Corey Seager: I feel no player is as overvalued as Seager. Last year he returned around $13 in this format. His projections are almost the same as his previous two seasons. His production is not 2nd round material. He’s not a player I’m going to end up owning.
Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen: Top closers rarely provide returns comparable to their draft pick. Rob Silver (2016 NFBC champion) goes over some recent closer values (more info in the comments).
In the last 3-years, my count of the number of relief pitchers taken in the first 10 rounds (ie – top 150, NFBC ADP) per season:
2017: 20
2016: 17
2015: 19Anyone want to guess how many of these 56 RPs turned a profit (15TM mixed)?
— Rob Silver (@RobSilver) November 17, 2017
The answer is 7:
2017: Jansen, Kimbrel, Robertson (which surprised me given he lost the closer role)
2016: Jansen, Britton, Melancon
2015: Hector Rondon.That's all. https://t.co/yPSiOQhi9n
— Rob Silver (@RobSilver) November 17, 2017
Owners should try to wait until the 8th to 10th round to get some value with closers.
Elvis Andrus: What a difference a year makes. Last year, owners were just staying away (157th overall, 11th round) and now he’s going in the 4th round. I’m going to have to look for middle infield values elsewhere.
—
I’m going to the well one more time and look at the players ranked 101 to 150. (Note: I went and ran the values versus the ADP just had too many players missing. I’m not going to do the next 50 for now but will once I get better ADP values. For now, I will lock down values on the top 100 discrepancies.) I will have plenty of potential values to comb through to find draft day targets.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Good read. Not seeing Daniel Murphy anywhere 1-100. Am I missing him, or is he truly not in top 100 for this analysis? Love me some Castellanos this year!
The missing playing time will drag him down
I’m sure the Ohtani short list is news too recent to inform your draft data, but I’d think Calhoun’s value is going to depend a great deal on if TEX wins that sweepstakes.
Maybe. So could signing Hosmer
I’ll take Seager. I think the elbow injury he played through in the second half had a big effect on him
I was thinking about Seager and the rationale of avoiding for avoiding him being that he was worth only $13 last year. I think the draft is not just about turning a profit on your picks. It is also about acquiring valuable players, regardless of their sticker price. Maybe Seager isn’t worth a 2nd rounder (fwiw I rarely end up with Seager on my rosters because I agree with Jeff), but most of the other players with similar ADP also don’t perform to their sticker price; drafters are paying for their perceived low risk. By the same method, Josh Donaldson (1st round, $8 2017 value), EE (2nd, $19), Freddie Freeman (2nd-3rd, $15) AJ Pollock, (3rd, $6) and the previously mentioned Gattis (7th ADP catcher, $4 & 13th overall catcher in 2016 value) are massive overpays. But we can’t go solely on their dollar return from the previous season, as that would almost always impact players who had injuries or who perform near their projections.
Said in a different way: which would we rather have: Paul Goldschmidt at $38, returning $36, or 18 $1 guys returning $2 each? Both provide $36 in value; one even gives surplus value! I see the answer as both. The $2 loss by itself wouldn’t make Goldschmidt a poor selection, considering the alternatives on where to spend the draft day money.
He was hurt all year. He missed almost all of last spring, then was “ready to go” for opening day. I think his back was a major issue all year. IMO it was a pretty outstanding lost season!
great analysis, as usual. of the 21 players in the top 100 undervalued by $6 or more only Odor is a MI (and as you note his projections require some thought) – any insight as to their dearth or is it just of 21 would only expect, say, 3 anyway…a second question relates to the SGP formulas: Baseball HQ publishes some every year but from, among other things, a longer time period. Given the way the game has changed (SB, HR, SP usage, etc), have you noticed big changes in the SGP computations? In your view is it worth using just the 2017 data or is the longer time frame better?
I think the 32 league average which was used is better from 2017. I use a 3-year weighted average for home/Tout leagues because Y-2-Y issues can occur. With 32 > 3, I fill fine just using 2017. Now, if news comes out the ball will change back, I’d use 2015 values (if I can find them).
Thanks for addressing my Catcher value question directly in this Part 2. Seeing the actual comparisons is useful for putting aside my inherent biases. This is something I should totally be doing myself, but this is why we all love you.
A problem with value picking a DJLM is his lack of home runs. You have to average about 25 home runs per roster spot to be competitive in most formats, sometimes more. If one of those spots only produces say 6 HR (a fairly typical DJLM season/projection), then your other slots need to average 27 HR. Since he’s not a SB threat either, you better have Stanton and K.Davis hanging around your OF or else you’ll never carry the offensive stats.
I am curious. You are running a 67-33 split. Does this split most closely align with the ADP? You have more SP listed as undervalued than over valued, is this maybe due to allocating too much of the pool to pitching? Or too much to SP relative to closers ?
This is the hardest part to set but moving to even 60-40 only moves each pitcher buy a $1 or two. I will try to line up the mix better later once more ADP is available
Need some advice from anyone that’s interested in giving it:
I’m looking to make an offer for Gary Sanchez in an Ottoneu 5×5 12 team league. My $65 Harper and $3 Flowers for his $17 Sanchez and $13 Castellanos.
Fair? Offering too much? Offering too little?
It really comes down to what you can do with the $ you save from Harper.
Thanks Jeff, that helped a lot.
Great read, I really like this list!
I wouldn’t necessarily lump Tanaka in with Price, Lester, and Shark. He’s only 29 and is coming off a career best K rate and backed by a 15+% SwStr. His FB is brutal but he’s throwing it so infrequently, it might not matter. The other 3 are well into their 30s and have started to decline (except maybe Shark).
I agree that Seager is over valued in fantasy formats. I think his overall skill and value to the Dodgers gets over hyped; mix in youth and upside and people are hoping for a breakout that isn’t coming. He’s a line drive hitter with no speed. AVG and OBP will be great but everything else will be just ok.
You thought Seager was overvalued in 2016? .300/30 HR at SS is very realistic if he is healthy. He doesn’t need a breakout, all he needs is health… which could be too much to ask. His consistency has value beyond his numbers in H2H format as well. He is exactly what a 1st rounder looks like.