Value vs. ADP: Players 51 to 100

In my last article, I examined the potential value differences between the top-50 rank players and their average draft position (ADP). Today, I will examine the next 50. While the first list contained quite a few players moving up, today’s list is a little more balanced with over and undervalued players.

One of the biggest takeaways from the first article was the extra replacement value catchers receive in a 2-catcher format. To simply explain the idea, I will turn to Joe Bryant who goes through a fitting example but with football.

The league’s bottom catchers are so bad so any catcher who can hit has good value. Evan Gattis being ranked #17 got most of the scrutiny in the rankings. As was pointed out, the projection may be high on the plate appearances but the process was still sound. Here is how Gattis compares to the last catcher ranked (Yan Gomes) and Francisco Lindor compared with the last middle infielder (Kolten Wong).

Yan Gomes is such a sink, especially with a total of 55 Runs+RBIs. It’s imperative to understand and value catchers correctly for each league formats. It’s a potentially huge advantage for those owners who spend the time.

Now, here are the next 50 players ranked by the difference in values using the settings:

• $260 budget
• 67/33 Hitter/Pitcher split, and the latest
• Steamer projections
• SGP values from 2017 NFBC main event
• 14 position players (2 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, 5 OF, MI, CI, Util), 9 pitchers
• ADP from Fantrax (The ranks have changed from my initial data pull. I will keep the older ranks so players don’t overlap).

Here are my thoughts on some of the biggest disagreements.

Undervalued

Nick Castellanos: I’m not sure what was wrong in these early drafts. Castellanos should at least been drafted. In subsequent drafts, he was closer to #100 overall. This puts his ADP value closer to his overall value.

Willie Calhoun: Calhoun can hit and not much else. With the Rangers, he can DH regularly but will have outfield and/or second base eligible this season depending on individual league rules. My biggest concern will be playing time and owners should monitor his situation closely in spring training. He’s a potential 7th round value in the 16th.

Blake Snell: Maybe the walks (4.1 BB/9 in ’17) scare away some owners. I’m not sure but he looks to but a nice buying opportunity on a young arm who could gain some control.

David Price, Jeff Samardzija, Jon Lester, Masahiro Tanaka: These four are not a sexy group of pitchers because owners know how they’ll perform. Age is not on their side but they start a ton and last long into games. They are Win and Strikeout accumulators. A team may not be able to win with all four on a roster but a one or two could really help.

Miguel Cabrera: Projections have him as a 4th rounder but his ADP is four rounds later. I’m not sure I’d trust Cabrera to hold up and be a 4th rounder. I could see him being constantly injured and provide no value or be a 1st rounder again. I really need to come up with a projection I can live with. I might just go with his 2017 line.

DJ LeMahieu: Even though there is no position scarcity (besides catcher), owners still act like it exists so values at middle infield are tougher to find. Value pickers need to target guys like LeMahieu or understand they may be picking up middle infielders after the 10th round or even later.

Overvalued

Cody Bellinger: I figured he’d be overvalued but not this much. I’m a little suspect of his projection since the number of games played (130) are the same as his 2017 games (132). I’d move up the games closer to 150 and the counting stats should take a boost.

Corey Seager: I feel no player is as overvalued as Seager. Last year he returned around $13 in this format. His projections are almost the same as his previous two seasons. His production is not 2nd round material. He’s not a player I’m going to end up owning.

Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen: Top closers rarely provide returns comparable to their draft pick. Rob Silver (2016 NFBC champion) goes over some recent closer values (more info in the comments).

In the last 3-years, my count of the number of relief pitchers taken in the first 10 rounds (ie – top 150, NFBC ADP) per season:

2017: 20
2016: 17
2015: 19

Anyone want to guess how many of these 56 RPs turned a profit (15TM mixed)?

— Rob Silver (@RobSilver) November 17, 2017

The answer is 7:

2017: Jansen, Kimbrel, Robertson (which surprised me given he lost the closer role)
2016: Jansen, Britton, Melancon
2015: Hector Rondon.

That's all. https://t.co/yPSiOQhi9n

— Rob Silver (@RobSilver) November 17, 2017

Owners should try to wait until the 8th to 10th round to get some value with closers.

Elvis Andrus: What a difference a year makes. Last year, owners were just staying away (157th overall, 11th round) and now he’s going in the 4th round. I’m going to have to look for middle infield values elsewhere.

—

I’m going to the well one more time and look at the players ranked 101 to 150. (Note: I went and ran the values versus the ADP just had too many players missing. I’m not going to do the next 50 for now but will once I get better ADP values. For now, I will lock down values on the top 100 discrepancies.)  I will have plenty of potential values to comb through to find draft day targets.