A Potent Odor: Rougned’s Return
About a week ago, I compared rankings with some actual ADP. One player which stood out was Rougned Odor. He ranked 47th overall (AVG vs OBP league) and it’s tough to rank a person so high who hit only .204 last season. Steamer projections currently have him back up to a .255 AVG. Acceptable but not great.
Additionally, Odor comes to the plate hacking and rarely walks (4.2% for his career) so almost all of his value comes from his BABIP. If his batted balls don’t fall for hits, he’s not getting on base. Since his value is so BABIP driven, I decided to see what the BABIP bounce-back chances were for low-walk hitters.
For my first test, I wanted to find these low-walk hitters expected BABIP ranges. I took all the hitters with 100 PA in back-to-back seasons (2002 to 2017) who had a walk rate under 5% in their first season. Then, I found season two’s possible range by using standard deviations (SD).
| Min Y1 | Max Y1 | Min Y2 | -2 SD | -1 SD | AVG | +1 SD | +2 SD | Max Y2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.146 | 0.259 | 0.194 | 0.200 | 0.238 | 0.277 | 0.315 | 0.354 | 0.381 |
| 0.260 | 0.280 | 0.172 | 0.211 | 0.244 | 0.277 | 0.310 | 0.343 | 0.365 |
| 0.280 | 0.300 | 0.185 | 0.220 | 0.256 | 0.292 | 0.328 | 0.364 | 0.401 |
| 0.300 | 0.320 | 0.171 | 0.226 | 0.262 | 0.298 | 0.334 | 0.370 | 0.389 |
| 0.320 | 0.339 | 0.226 | 0.235 | 0.270 | 0.306 | 0.341 | 0.377 | 0.399 |
| 0.340 | 0.423 | 0.183 | 0.233 | 0.270 | 0.307 | 0.345 | 0.382 | 0.387 |
In the case Odor, he has a .297 BABIP in 2016, so owners should have been expecting a similar value for 2017. Instead, his .224 BABIP was almost exactly 2 SD below the average. It was within a reasonable outcome range but definitely on the extreme worse end.
For 2018, some bounce back is likely with low BABIPs bouncing up to around .277. Surprisingly, his Steamer projection has his BABIP exactly at .277. His BABIP and the projected .255 AVG are reasonable estimates.
Besides the range of possible outcomes, I wanted to see if any trait was more common for those who bounced back. To find these traits, I ranked the players by BABIP in year one, grouped them into five groups, and then compared traits for those who improved and those who dropped.
Two items stuck out, Speed Score and groundball rate (GB%). If a hitter was fast and could use this speed legging out some groundball hits, he was more likely to see his BABIP improve. Those hitters who are slow and hit flyballs aren’t likely to see improved results.
| BABIP (min) | BABIP (max) | Speed (improve BABIP) | Speed (BABIP drop) | Diff | GB% (BABIP improve) | GB% (BABIP drop) | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group 1 | 0.146 | 0.273 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 44.9% | 40.4% | 4.5% |
| Group 2 | 0.273 | 0.291 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 45.5% | 43.3% | 2.2% |
| Group 3 | 0.291 | 0.310 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 46.8% | 46.0% | 0.8% |
| Group 4 | 0.310 | 0.330 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 0.4 | 48.3% | 46.6% | 1.7% |
| Group 5 | 0.330 | 0.423 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 47.0% | 3.0% |
Going back to 2016 with Odor (.297 BABIP), his 5.5 Speed Score pointed to an improved BABIP while his 40% GB% pointed to a lower BABIP. Last year (.224 BABIP), his 5.6 Speed Score was similar while his 42% GB% is between the two GB% averages. Overall, Odor has the speed to beat out some ground balls for hits but just doesn’t put the ball on the ground enough to utilize his speed. Odor’s fantasy value is heavily tied to his BABIP and it should bounce back some. The only item holding back a large increase is the low rate of groundballs he posts.
Odor is not the only hitter living off his BABIP. Here are all the hitters (min 200 PA) who posted a BB% under 5% last season.
| Name | PA | BB% | GB% | Spd | BABIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Anderson | 606 | 2.1% | 52.7% | 6.2 | .328 |
| Alcides Escobar | 629 | 2.4% | 40.8% | 4.3 | .291 |
| Kevan Smith | 294 | 3.1% | 57.1% | 0.9 | .323 |
| Martin Maldonado | 471 | 3.2% | 48.5% | 2.3 | .273 |
| Joey Rickard | 277 | 3.2% | 35.4% | 5.0 | .303 |
| Ronald Torreyes | 336 | 3.3% | 52.4% | 3.5 | .326 |
| Salvador Perez | 499 | 3.4% | 33.3% | 2.4 | .280 |
| Brandon Phillips | 604 | 3.5% | 49.5% | 4.1 | .308 |
| Adam Rosales | 312 | 3.5% | 35.4% | 1.9 | .312 |
| Dee Gordon | 695 | 3.6% | 57.6% | 8.5 | .354 |
| Eduardo Nunez | 491 | 3.7% | 53.4% | 4.8 | .333 |
| Adeiny Hechavarria | 348 | 3.7% | 48.7% | 5.7 | .304 |
| Ryon Healy | 605 | 3.8% | 42.8% | 1.4 | .319 |
| Caleb Joseph | 266 | 3.8% | 46.2% | 2.4 | .328 |
| Yulieski Gurriel | 564 | 3.9% | 46.2% | 2.8 | .308 |
| T.J. Rivera | 231 | 3.9% | 35.3% | 3.6 | .318 |
| Jose Peraza | 518 | 3.9% | 47.1% | 5.8 | .293 |
| Leury Garcia | 326 | 4.0% | 55.3% | 5.4 | .321 |
| Jose Osuna | 227 | 4.0% | 52.8% | 4.9 | .254 |
| Nick Hundley | 303 | 4.0% | 42.3% | 1.1 | .307 |
| Adam Jones | 635 | 4.3% | 44.8% | 2.7 | .312 |
| Matt Davidson | 443 | 4.3% | 36.2% | 1.8 | .285 |
| Aledmys Diaz | 301 | 4.3% | 45.6% | 3.5 | .282 |
| Jose Iglesias | 489 | 4.3% | 50.4% | 4.2 | .285 |
| Didi Gregorius | 570 | 4.4% | 36.2% | 2.7 | .287 |
| Chris Owings | 386 | 4.4% | 42.5% | 4.9 | .318 |
| Hernan Perez | 458 | 4.4% | 48.3% | 5.3 | .286 |
| Wilson Ramos | 224 | 4.5% | 52.0% | 0.5 | .262 |
| J.J. Hardy | 268 | 4.5% | 45.4% | 2.6 | .252 |
| Whit Merrifield | 630 | 4.6% | 37.7% | 6.7 | .308 |
| Paul DeJong | 443 | 4.7% | 33.7% | 2.5 | .349 |
| Gerardo Parra | 425 | 4.7% | 46.8% | 3.0 | .343 |
| Wilmer Flores | 362 | 4.7% | 35.8% | 2.4 | .270 |
| Johan Camargo | 256 | 4.7% | 47.6% | 3.0 | .364 |
| Starlin Castro | 473 | 4.9% | 51.8% | 3.5 | .347 |
| Christian Vazquez | 345 | 4.9% | 47.1% | 5.1 | .348 |
| Ben Revere | 308 | 4.9% | 55.8% | 6.5 | .296 |
| Tyler Moore | 203 | 4.9% | 36.3% | 1.0 | .287 |
| Rougned Odor | 651 | 4.9% | 41.5% | 5.6 | .224 |
| J.T. Riddle | 247 | 4.9% | 53.3% | 2.4 | .300 |
| Darwin Barney | 362 | 5.0% | 46.7% | 3.9 | .270 |
A couple players stick out as heavy BABIP regression candidates.
- Paul DeJong: He’s slow (2.5 Speed score) and hits a ton of balls in the air (only 34% GB%). I could see his .349 BABIP come crashing down hard.
- Jose Osuna: With decent speed and a good groundball rate, his BABIP should have been quite a bit higher. He’s always posted good minor league BABIPs so I would expect his .254 BABIP to jump.
In conclusion, having a low walk rate isn’t a death sentence for a hitter with a low BABIP like Rougned Odor. These hackers should expect some decent bounce back, especially if they are fast and keep the ball on the ground so the speedy legs can be put to work. For 2018, I’m not going to personally adjust Odor’s Steamer projection and if he’s next on my draft list, I don’t have a problem rostering him.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Interesting post. Would be interested to see how Odors popup % factors into this. It seemed to the biggest reason for his low BAPIP last year.
Infield flies are part of his overall batting profile where his swing leads to too many flies and fewer ground balls
You’re partially right. His IFFB% in the 2nd half was only 9.4% down from a crazy high 20.6% in the first half yet his BABIP was actually LOWER in the 2nd half. .198 in the 2nd half compared to a still low .244 in the 1st half.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AF0oGIL97V82vxK5gBQjq9EMtM_GjRJOtccscmQKSKI/edit#gid=1217921479
The other part is, the LD% that went from 18.3% (1st half) to 13.4% (2nd half). A line drive is a hit almost 70% of the time (on average) which in theory would lower his average by .025 over the course of an entire season. So while he suffered from high IFFB% in the first half, he struggled with a lack of line drives in the 2nd half.
Can’t wait to draft Odor on some teams next year. He went 30/15 last year and all anyone will talk about is how he had a ‘bad year’ because of the AVG.
As one of those owners I can definitely say that the counting stats were not worth it. .255 is an average sink. .202 is a friggin black hole from which there is no escape. Especially with power being a fairly common trait these days. Unless he’s cheap and you can cover your losses with the avg risk. Look elsewhere
Yeah, don’t know if I can get onboard with that BA downside. Also worth noting the month with his highest average at 266 was buoyed by a 35.7% hr/fb. Next best month was .216. This wasn’t a funky down month or two.
He definitely burnt some teams and they will stay away. I’m probably that way with Chris Davis.
Anyone on the above list is also at risk, especially if the happen to lose a step (e.g. Dee Gordon)
Overall that’s a rather ugly list to be living on. Given his pull rate continues to increase while he contact percentage continues to decline and his exit velocity is nothing special, I think even a .277 BABIP is optomistic. I think .250 is very possible, and that would make him a .230 hitter, buried behind at least Gallo in the 6-8 range which means minimal R and RBI. Not optomistic.
I think it really comes down to his cost. Right now, it seems minuscule.
Hitting more grounders isn’t going to help when he’s pulling them into the shift (his pulled grounder rate has increased the last 3 years via xStats). He also needs to do something about his popup problem– combine that with his now worse than average K rate and he’s simply making too many free outs for compensate for his lack of other offensive skills.
yes. looked at statcast and his BABIP below +5 degrees was .194. to improve that he would Need to pull less which would probably also eat into his power.
less Pop ups would help but even when you look at balls hit lower than 50 degrees his babip last year only would have been 260.since he could never get to no Pop ups a decent improvement there probably would “only” improve his babip by about 10-15 Points (which is a lot of course), to really have a decent babip he would Need to hit more liners and spray the ball more.
however spraying more would also lower his power, so this can be a dangerous game to Play.
best would of course be to chase less but that is really hard to do.
His very extreme fly ball approach does of course contribute to the low babip but will he still get to his power with a more conservative profile?
Is a 315 obp with 20 hr better than 290 with 30?
He sucked last year but I guess even without a change in profile he probably had some bad luck in 2017 and a 250 babip might be realistic.
With a 250 babip his on base still sucks but is more like 280-290 rather than 250 and then he is not good but also not super bad.
You would if you were in an OBP league, or if you were a scoresheeter. And you would if you were in the real world. His low-production/high out totals helped to kill Texas last year–along with his crappy defense.