I can’t believe it’s already July. Pitching rotations across the league have experienced that unavoidable attrition that comes with the season, but that has created opportunities for some newcomers to shine. I think some of the toughest analysis in fantasy baseball is assessing those newcomers on the fly. We know it’s going to be a short sample prone to volatility, but are they this year’s version of 2017 Luis Castillo (3.12 ERA, 18% K-BB in 89 IP) or Sean Newcomb (1.48 ERA in first 4 starts; 5.23 in the 15 after that start). Interesting how the paths of those two guys diverged in 2018, by the way.

I think there are a lot of fun names to discuss as things really open up as early as 25 or so. I’ve got 124 guys ranked for July and then the injured guys on their own.

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Last week I re-introduced my hitter prospect finder and today, the pitchers take center stage. The process uses K%-BB%, age, and level as inputs to find potential off-the-radar prospects.

While the hitter finder finds all the top hitters from scouting sources, the pitcher is not as robust. It just looks at results which sometimes can be off with known fastball velocities and pitch quality. Even though it doesn’t replicate the top prospects, I find it’s great at finding lesser-known targets.

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With a few jobs recently influx (HOU, PHI, STL, TB, NYM, and now BAL w/Zach Britton returning), I figured I’d take a look at where the saves have come from so far. Remember when Kenley Jansen was scary? After allowing six runs through his first seven outings, he has allowed five (three earned) in 23 innings since with 24 strikeouts. Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, and Aroldis Chapman have completely held up their end of the bargain as early closers, but things really branch out from there. Using the NFBC average draft position data (15-team, 30-round drafts), here’s a look at the breakdown:
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The MLB Draft is unique in that it happens during the season. For the football and basketball drafts, they happen well before the season starts because the players can contribute for the upcoming season. With baseball, the odds are against one single player getting the call this season. That doesn’t mean fantasy owners, especially those in keeper and dynasty formats, shouldn’t possibly be making some moves depending on their needs.

The biggest key for anyone considering rostering a just drafted player, know your league rules. First, some leagues may not allow the drafted players to be rostered until the next offseason draft. Other leagues don’t allow owning a player until they’ve at least played a minor or major league game. In some other leagues, the players are rosterable this next FAAB period. Each one is unique. Let me start the discussion with the last league type.

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Even as the samples grow larger, pitchers are always changing making it the most volatile market in the fantasy game. This volatility is exacerbated by the tightening talent pool, no doubt due in part due to the ability of teams and players to analyze all aspects of pitching and continually tweak a pitch here or alter mechanics there to unlock a pitcher’s full potential. Following pitchers closely and staying up on those changes is part of the fun of this game.

There is also just the natural ebbs and flows of a season.

Over the course of 30 starts, a guy will have his A+ stuff for 10 starts and then be lucky to have even a single reliable pitch in 10 others leaving those middle 10 to decide their fate. Even the best get knocked around a couple times per year, don’t freak out. Meanwhile, fourth-fifth starters usually end up with 12-15 good starts over the course of a season, even if it’s a 4.75 ERA kind of season, so be careful diving headfirst if it’s the same profile posting outlier numbers. I’ve got 119 guys ranked for June and then the injured guys on their own.

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With our auction calculator update, I going to look at three top-rated batters.

Ozzie Albies

In my recent Launch Angle podcast, I had a tough time deciding if I’d draft Ozzie Albies or Jose Altuve in a new 2018 league. I decided I’d go with Altuve but being that I had to think about it, I needed to see if I buy Albies’s ascension into a possible first or second round talent.

Others and myself had an idea Albies was going to be good but just not hit for so much power. If someone would have told me to predict six and 13 for Albies’s home runs and stolen base totals, I would have swapped them. Last year, he had 15 HR and 29 SB. The season before, it was 6 HR and 30 SB. I figured the speed was safe (and it is) but his power may come later. I was right, he isn’t hitting for more power, he’s utilizing his it better.

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With the season underway, owners need to start adjusting some player’s fantasy value. Some of the tweaks can be from talent changes (e.g. increase in talent) or role (e.g. moving for a long reliever to starter). Three players, Kenley Jansen, Trea Turner, and Luke Weaver, are three such players on the move.

Kenley Jansen

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It’s closing time!

We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. The Bullpen Report team, plus Jeff and myself did these rankings. We can also be reached via Twitter:

• Paul Sporer
• Jeff Zimmerman
• Al Melchior
• Keith Farnsworth
• Ben Pasinkoff
• Greg Jewett

There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.

Note – The first Bullpen Report will be out this weekend!

Key:

• AVG– just the average of the seven ranking sets
• Adj. AVG– the average minus the high and low rankings
• SPLIT– the difference between the high and low rankings

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Yesterday, I listed and discussed nine hitters who I ranked significantly higher than the rest of my fellow RotoGraphers. Today, I move on to starting pitchers. I limited this list to those in my top 60 and also did a bit of cherry picking. Why? Because of this comment I added to the starting pitcher composite rankings post:

Before I get a million questions, remember these are projected end of season rankings based on dollar values earned. It’s absolutely not exactly how I would draft these pitchers, as I will always prefer a lower IP guy with better ratio projections than a higher IP guy with worse ratios, but more wins and Ks to boost his dollar value. That preference is not reflected in the ranking above, as it’s a strategic choice, not a mathematical one.

So I excluded guys like Rick Porcello, Julio Teheran, and Cole Hamels, whose betters rankings are likely due to differences in how we ranked players. All get most of their value from volume, rather than strong ratios. It’s more valuable to discuss players I ranked better due to a more bullish projection.

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Every year after we post our positional rankings, I run my Pod’s Picks series, highlighting the players I am more bullish and bearish on compared with the consensus. I didn’t want to completely skip the series this time, so because I’m strapped for time before opening day, I’m going to do a hitter version that lumps all positions together. I’m also only going to discuss my picks, which are the players I am most bullish on versus the rest of the rankers. I figure advice on who to draft, rather than who to avoid, is a bit more valuable.

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