Early 2B Rankings with Commentary
Continuing to make my way around the diamond, I’ve got the second base rankings today. You can find my SP and 1B rankings by clicking on those links in case you missed them the first time around. These Average Draft Positions come from NFBC data as of 2/1. Each colored bar represents the start of a new tier.
Let me know how you’re attacking 2B in the comments below. Ideally I’d like to get in that 2nd tier for my primary 2B, but I’m OK if I have to dip into the 3rd or 4th tiers should I miss out on a Dozier or Odor and then I wait on MI and leverage the later tiers for that (Panik, Walker, Miller, etc…).
February 2B Rankings
| RK | PLAYER | TEAM | ADP | COMMENT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jose Altuve | HOU | 2 | Avg of .341, 24 HR, 31 SB the last 2 yrs; only player besides Trout w/case for #1 overall |
| 2 | Jose Ramirez | CLE | 19 | B2B big yrs establishes him as a true stud; pop should regress, but .300/20/20 is elite |
| 3 | Brian Dozier | MIN | 37 | His stability is underrated, avg’ing about .250/100/30/85/15 the last 4 yrs |
| 4 | Dee Gordon | SEA | 29 | Rebounded from weak ’16; must plan around low HR; will add OF eligibility |
| 5 | Daniel Murphy | WAS | 69 | Oct. knee surgery healing well; an ADP bargain if Opening Day outlook holds during ST |
| 6 | Jonathan Schoop | BAL | 63 | His ’17 was likely the peak, but a dip back to .275/85/27/85 still works well |
| 7 | Robinson Cano | SEA | 86 | Basically an older Schoop w/the AVG being safer and HR/health riskier |
| 8 | Rougned Odor | TEX | 105 | Went 30 HR/15 SB in bad yr; better than a .204 even w/his IF flyball issues; buy! |
| 9 | Ozzie Albies | ATL | 133 | Thanks to Eno for making me pay attention to Albies last summer; 10+ HR/30+ SB upside |
| 10 | Chris Taylor | LAD | 92 | Many fearful of collapse, but has legit speed & plate skills plus decent pop & dual elig. |
| 11 | Whit Merrifield | KC | 76 | Speed feels bankable w/27 per 600 PA in minors; pop was new, but 9% HR/FB isn’t outrageous |
| 12 | Eduardo Nunez | BOS | 130 | Having a tm will push ADP; likely FT 2B in Pedroia’s absence then utilityman |
| 13 | DJ LeMahieu | COL | 134 | Quality asset in two most overlooked hitting cats: AVG and R w/.319, 95 per yr since ’15 |
| 14 | Marwin Gonzalez | HOU | 115 | Boost in lgs that favor eligibility w/OF, SS, 1B, 2B in 20 gm lgs; adds 3B in 15 gm lgs |
| 15 | Yoan Moncada | CWS | 130 | Should get his first major opportunity; 12 HR, 17 SB in 80 AAA gms last yr |
| 16 | Ian Happ | CHC | 133 | Switch-hitting and positional flexibility should help him carve out PA on deep CHC roster |
| 17 | Javier Baez | CHC | 101 | Opened w/.601 OPS in Apr before posting an .825 w/22 of his 23 HR from May 1st on |
| 18 | Ian Kinsler | LAA | 188 | No reason .244 BABIP should last; K%,BB% improved while HR/SB remained strong; buy |
| 19 | Jonathan Villar | MIL | 180 | Once again priced to buy after ’17 collapse thanks to speed and role |
| 20 | Josh Harrison | PIT | 262 | 2014 pop returned w/FB%, Pull%, and Hard% improvements; has never reached 150 gms |
| 21 | Cesar Hernandez | PHI | 258 | .294 AVG, .372 OBP since ’16, could push 100 R in emerging PHI lineup |
| 22 | Scooter Gennett | CIN | 209 | 2x HR/FB en route to massive pwr surge; worth pick 200 even if he returns to ’16 level |
| 23 | Paul DeJong | STL | 145 | Hit it hard (36%) & in the air (43%) w/regularity, but plate skills (0.17 BB/K) preach caution |
| 24 | Jason Kipnis | CLE | 263 | Never been a huge fan, but can’t hurt at current price & could pay off massively w/health |
| 25 | Jose Peraza | CIN | 206 | Is there such a thing as poor man’s Billy Hamilton? Destroys pwr cats w/only 20-something SBs |
| 26 | Asdrubal Cabrera | NYM | 310 | Triple elig. (2B, SS, 3B), decent pop, and a .280 AVG last 2 yrs; should bat high in order, too |
| 27 | Joe Panik | SF | 391 | Basically a poor man’s DJ LeMahieu; improved lineup could send Runs to new heights |
| 28 | Starlin Castro | MIA | 288 | Don’t buy expecting a trade, but he’s fine at this ADP even if he remains in MLB purgatory |
| 29 | Kolten Wong | STL | 374 | Wonder if he could consolidate HR/SB from ’14-15 with AVG/OBP of last yr?! |
| 30 | Neil Walker | FA | 416 | Could move up the board if he finds a starting spot; worth the cheap spec right now |
| 31 | Brad Miller | TB | 456 | Labored through injury-riddled ’17; 30 HR repeat unlikely, but 15+ likely w/health |
| 32 | Yangervis Solarte | TOR | 271 | Positional flexibility should keep him in lineup even if Travis somehow stays healthy |
| 33 | Raul Mondesi Jr. | KC | 360 | The re-signing of Escobar crushes his PT outlook, but still a solid SB spec for reserves |
| 34 | Brandon Drury | ARI | 423 | Not sure there’s another 480 PA w/out injury or trade, but the bat is intriguing |
| 35 | Scott Kingery | PHI | 340 | Huge AA/AAA season fuels hype, but where’s he play unless Crawford flops & Cesar moves to SS |
| 36 | Brandon Phillips | FA | 401 | Averaging .290, 12 HR, 16 SB, 75 R, 65 RBI the last 3 yrs, but currently lacks a team |
| 37 | Devon Travis | TOR | 415 | Can’t stay on the field and the market has finally priced that in (-200 picks from ’17 ADP) |
| 38 | Dustin Pedroia | BOS | 412 | Slated to miss some time after knee surgery, though latest news says he’s targeting OD |
| 39 | Jose Reyes | NYM | 328 | Without looking, guess his HR/SB totals from ’17… also has triple elig. (2B, SS, 3B) |
| 40 | Jed Lowrie | OAK | 434 | Stayed healthy for the first time in 4 yrs, can he do it again at age-35? |
| 41 | Ronald Torreyes | NYY | 490 | Could offer some empty batting average while we wait for Gleyber Torres |
| 42 | Logan Forsythe | LAD | 430 | Crushed lefties (.870 OPS), but could be relegated to short-side platoon (.576 vR) |
| 43 | Adam Frazier | PIT | 401 | Basically a poor man’s Joe Panik; chance to start in LF; 79% of ’17 PA were in 1st/2nd spots |
| 44 | Yolmer Sanchez | CWS | 436 | AL-only option at best, but modest SB output could be in peril w/horrific 46% success |
| 45 | Wilmer Difo | WAS | 444 | There’s no real avenue for playing time right now |
| 46 | Ben Zobrist | CHC | 459 | SBs are gone (11 total since ’15) so even if the AVG returns, there isn’t much to buy here |
| 47 | Alen Hanson | SF | 630 | NRI w/no clear path to PT, but 39 SB per 600 PA in MiLB so keep him in mind just in case |
| ADP from NFBC leagues as of 2/1 |
I’m all about Albies, Moncada (who I have as a keeper), and C. Hernandez. To me, this is where steal value is to be found. Excited about all 3 of those guys and the price they AREN’T demanding.
I think C. Hernandez is the most undervalued player on this list. I think he has great potential with decent floor at almost no cost.
“Cesar, and bring her to me!”
How Dj has so little power in Coors is always shocking. Guys 6’5″
Same reason golfers that are 5’5″ can out-drive guys that are 6′, swing speed
Are you serious? Pretty sure this is wrong in both golf and baseball.
The real reason is that LeMahieu basically never hits a fly ball, never pulls a ball, and never EVER pulls a fly ball. Even if you hit the ball hard you’re not gonna hit very many home runs that way. In fact, LeMahieu DOES have have decent raw power. His exit velocity is about league average.
He just doesn’t go for it. Tiny flyball and pull rates – https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9874&position=2B#battedball
Since you listed several names that will likely have limited playing time and little value, why were Carlos Asuaje (SD), Dixon Machado (Det) and Daniel Robertson (TB) omitted? I believe all three are currently projected to start at 2B for their respective teams. Also, do you think Tyler Wade will have any value? Thanks.
Asuaje actually has a chance to be a decent low-power, some-steals guy with a pretty decent average (so an analog of Adam Frazier or maybe with more hits). Machado is a poor man’s Adam Frazier, though, at best. Joey Wendle is the projected starter for Tampa Bay.
Thanks!
Paul, who would be your main MI dynasty targets for an Ottoneu Fangraphs Points league? Is Albies just as valuable in a points league?
Have a stacked lineup in a 12tm h2h auction keeper league, so I’m going to wait and take $1 2B. Trying not to get attached to any one guy, but there’s a few solid ones between 10-20 (no MI). I like Albies but playing w Braves homers so no shot. Prob Cesar or Kinsler, and another $1 2b multi position guy like Gennett or Kipnis for bench
If Gleyber wins 2b job for yanks in spring, where would you slot him?
2018 Fangraphs Projections
Rougned Odor: 75/28/79/15/.248
Ian Happ: 76/25/85/11.260
Yet, Odor is ranked 8th and Happ is ranked 16th. Odor is ranked way too high and needs to be brought down due to his very real very low floor.
I’m a Rangers fan, and the hole in Odor’s swing is legit. Sinking down and in and he is swinging for the fences. Well….he is ALWAYS swinging for the fences, but I digress.I will never forget the game where we were in desperate need of baserunners late in a low-score game and he had a 3-0 count and took a nasty hack that he popped up to the infield. The power is there, but he is a major frustration.
Oh for sure, everyone knows the flaws & downside with Odor. He’s also 24 years old so he can in fact change/improve.
Please don’t tell me what I *need* to do with my rankings… if you don’t want to take him there, then don’t. You cite one projection as if it’s the bible.
You should acknowledge that those are the FANS projections, not real ones.
All projection are not real. Hence the name projection
there’s the issue of track record as well…
Didn’t realize I was the high man on Moncada. Have him in dynasty and fully expect to draft a higher floor insurance policy but in a daily league I’m buying on the idea he’s going to be really hot and cold this year. A 3rd of the weeks he’ll be a top 3 2B then another 3rd a bottom 5 guy and just trust my management to maximize his production.
Damn 2b is deep as f
Anthony Rizzo has 2B eligibility in yahoo. smdh
Thankfully, positional scarcity is at an all-time low, or this would be a real problem.
Where would Wilmer Flores fit in if he gets 2B elig?
My guess would be 45
Austin Barnes (21 G, 4 GS) and Howie Kendrick (21 GS)?
Would *never* use Barnes at 2B when he has C eligibility so it’s not worth ranking him there. Kendrick had 11 GS at 2B so he didn’t show up in NFBC ADP (which requires 15 starts).
Do you think the Rays would take Brandon Phillips on a 1 year, $2.5 mil deal to use as a potential trade chip later in 2018?
Daniel Murphy is consistently underrated
He is also coming off of a serious knee injury in his 30s. I dont want that risk for where he will be drafted.
Exactly my reservation right now, Frank. If we see a healthy Murph in spring, I’m back in for sure.
Hey Paul I just wanted to tell you I really appreciate this format of ranking the players. I find myself agreeing with a lot of your perspectives.
The best part of Murphy has been his consistency during the year. Luckily having Altuve also means I can get away with not keeping the injury risk.
@bluerum, you realize you just guaranteed Altuve pops his acl in game 5 of the season, right?
Where would you put Willie Calhoun on the list for 2018?
No one want to take the old guys but Kinsler and Beltre are by far the two best value picks this year in my opinion.
You can stock up on pitching or maybe reach for Gary Sanchez early knowing both will come at huge discounts to their actual value.
yep this is often the case, people are scared of the old guys.
Caesar Hernandez is way….to….low… on this list. I would argue and quite honestly win the fact that he should at least be a top 10 preseason pick especially for Dynasty. Hernandez is the most under-rated, under-looked leadoff Keystones in the game. He missed 5 weeks last season and still put up top 10 stats. With the addition of Hoskins, Santana, Williams, and Crawford the Phillies will have a potent offense to bring in the OBP machine. I see Hernandez having a 15/20season with a potential 300avg to go with 100+ Runs and 60 RBI’s. Not to mention he’s a switch hitter with quality splits from both sides.
Paul, why have you never been a huge fan of Kipnis? Injuries? Master of None? Affinity for dirt? His squinting?
Murphy is a steal right now, I think he’s better than Gordon straight up, never mind the cheaper price for Murphy right now.
Once we get some clarity on the knee, I’ll feel better about where to rank him. Fully healthy, I agree and he’d be 4th (Dozier’s SBs still keep him ahead for me), but I played it a little cautious as we enter ST.
Assuming that the tiers represent players with similar productions overall, then the ‘value’ guys are:
T2: Murphy/Schoop
T3: Albies/Nunez/DJLM
T4: Harrison, Hernandez
Am I more or less right on that?
What about Torres? He has gotta be higher than Torreyes…