Not much movement this week compared to my last report. I figured some bullpen trades would have occurred by now, but it looks like it will be a busy last 10 days before the traded deadline.
Note: These rankings are based on chances of getting Saves, not pitcher talent.
Previously, I looked at the hitter and pitcher auction bargains of 2019 at mid-season. These were the players that have earned the most rotisserie value, net of their cost to roster.
Now let’s turn our attention to the players who have lost the most profit in the first half of 2019, who I will refer to as the value drainers. These are the largest under-performers (to date), relative to their pre-season auction values.
To remind everyone:
For this exercise – In order to calculate $Value, I use NFBC roster settings and scoring parameters. Actual $AAV data is used to determine the opportunity cost. For the full methodology of how these player bargains are calculated, please refer to my introductory post. Read the rest of this entry »
Last week, I looked at the 2019 auction hitter bargains at mid-season. Now let’s dive into the most profitable pitchers of the first half.
To remind everyone, we aren’t looking here for the highest earning pitchers of 2019 – we are looking at pitchers with the largest values net of their opportunity cost to acquire. Gerrit Cole has earned nearly $24 of fantasy auction value – making him the 7th highest earning pitcher. However, with his $36 average auction value – he technically is in the red as far as profitability goes.
For the methodology employed and the terms used in the ensuing leaderboards, please refer to my previous post on the 2019 Fantasy Baseball Auction Bargains at Mid-Season – Batters edition.
There are two different and distinct ways to kick off each season in fantasy baseball. I am referring to the two popular ways to fill teams’ rosters pre-season – namely snake drafts and auctions. In either method of commencement, the goal is to accumulate the most player statistics for the forthcoming season.
However, drafts differ from auctions in the value proposition of roster slots – which is static for snake drafts. Unless you are able to trade draft picks, you are cemented with those specific slots that in turn correspond to fixed levels of fantasy value. At an auction, the distribution of acquired values may vary more widely.
The predominant first overall snake draft selection in just about any fantasy format (or depth) this year was Mike Trout. The impetus for that is easy to explain. Trout is the player with a tremendous (dare I say the highest) floor of talent, a high upside of statistics to accumulate, and a proven track record to back everything up. In economic terms, he provided the most potential value with the least amount of risk.
7/2/19
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Paul meanders aimlessly discussing the painfully thin pool of pitching.
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From now until the trade deadline at the month’s end, I will be publishing a weekly post on overall closer rankings. The focus is not the best closers, but the combination of talent, opportunity, the chance of being traded, other bullpen arms, and mainly accumulating Saves. These rankings could change on a dime but at least they provide some structure for speculating on Saves.
I find the rumor mill boring but usually where there is smoke, there is fire. For that reason, I’m basing the chances of being traded on MLBTraderumors and The Athletic’s most likely traded lists. If they are wrong, I’m wrong.
Read the rest of this entry »
Another month is in the books and pitching landscape remains a mess. We lost 10 pitchers off last month’s rankings from underperformance, injuries, and demotions (to the pen or minors) and frankly, I could’ve maybe cut it to 105, but a lot of us play in deep leagues so we have to know the dregs. There are some major moves within even the top 50, let alone the rest of the rankings so I’ll have either an article or solo pod diving into reasoning behind the largest changes and how I feel about them going forward.
I look at my in-season rankings in 4-6 week blocks so the potential innings limits facing some of the younger arms rated highly aren’t really that important right now. Given that so much is going to change in the next month let alone the next four, I don’t see the point in pretending that these updates are viable for the rest of the season.
Pay attention to the tier! If I didn’t rank someone as high as you thought I should, but they are still a must or usually start, then it’s probably not worth freaking out too much. Those tiers mean they are in the rotation pretty much all the time. I’m open to debating slotting, too, but worrying about a 4-spot difference between two guys in the same tier is probably a waste of time.
Introduction
I made the following controversial proclamation earlier this year – that Chris Archer is highly overvalued by fantasy owners. I go even further to say that in all but deep mixed leagues and mono leagues – continually rostering the right hander would be a poor use of fantasy resources.
My contention with Archer’s value stems from his ratio stats:
Chris Archer ERA by season:
2016 4.02
2017 4.07
2018 4.31
2019 4.33Why the love?
I said it prior to the season and will say it again … Archer has almost no value in most roto formats.
Roster a high strikeout MR, and stream a few 2-start pitchers. You will do better.
— Ariel Cohen (@ATCNY) May 6, 2019
We are a month into the season and the pitching landscape is a mess. The top tier has been shaken to its core with several studs struggling their way through the month while streaming feels damn near impossible with they way the ball is flying out of parks. Of course, there have been bright spots and I do my best to highlight those while also being careful not overreact too much.
I look at my in-season rankings in 4-6 week blocks so the potential innings limits facing some of the younger arms rated highly aren’t really that important right now. Given that so much is going to change in the next month let alone the next five, I don’t see the point in pretending that these updates are viable for the rest of the season.
Pay attention to the tier! If I didn’t rank someone as high as you thought I should, but they are still a must or usually start, then it’s probably not worth freaking out too much. Those tiers mean they are in the rotation pretty much all the time. I’m open to debating slotting, too, but worrying about a 4-spot difference between two guys in the same tier is probably a waste of time.
Few aspects of fantasy baseball deviate more from the reality of major league baseball more than the speculation of prospects. Like most aspects of market-based economics, you often have to buy early on limited information if you want to get the best return on investment before the rest of the industry influences supply and demand. Perception is reality until prospects actually get the chance to contribute (or fail) on a major league field, and the outcome of those small but important samples can swing values wildly in short cycles.
The goal today is to identify up and coming talent well before the masses of most leagues, so here are five prospects primed to see a big increase in value in 2019. You won’t find these prospects sitting on many Top 100 lists (yet), but you’ll want to at least keep them on your radar as they rise in the future.